Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 WxSouth said he is worried the high might not move out like the models show and allow the precip to hang around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 You can clearly see on radar the precipitation is way east of what models are showing.. not sure what the advisories are for out west.. I doesn't look like much moisture will make it that far west Lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Smh... Its the attitude in here dude. People get tired of it. Looking good for some freezing rain tonight (Foothills/NW Peidmont). Already had one overperformer this week, wouldn't suprise me to get another. I think a trace to .25 is possible in some areas if some isentropic lift kicks in. Interested in the hrr later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Anytime we have CAD and a threat of ice, it reminds me of a storm we had back in high school that wasn't supposed to be much, and then I ended up stuck on a school bus because the roads were a mess, and the sheriff's department had to come and take us home. Ended up being a big storm. These things can be tricky and worse than anticipated if it is a little colder than anticipated and the precip hangs around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 37.2°/26°. Cooling off nicely this evening. HRRR looks interesting. Might could squeeze out a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Cut those totals by 90% and they might be close, just like the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Anytime we have CAD and a threat of ice, it reminds me of a storm we had back in high school that wasn't supposed to be much, and then I ended up stuck on a school bus because the roads were a mess, and the sheriff's department had to come and take us home. Ended up being a big storm. These things can be tricky and worse than anticipated if it is a little colder than anticipated and the precip hangs around for a while. I feel like we may get more than expected too, but that's just a 'gut' feeling with nothing objective...but we get these every now and then, something sneaks up on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Long story short. Allan is still here. Robert is not. Allan makes useful data for people to learn from and use along with awesome forecasts... Where is Robert on here after he calls for roof collapsing snow? ... enough said. Plenty agree but won't say anything much. Both are good. I don't remember anybody saying roof collapsing snows. I did see Power outages and tree damage which did happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Long story short. Allan is still here. Robert is not. Allan makes useful data for people to learn from and use along with awesome forecasts... Where is Robert on here after he calls for roof collapsing snow? ... enough said. Plenty agree but won't say anything much.Robert hasn't been on here in a couple years. As a business owner I know how busy he must be.Besides, Robert apologized and admited his forecast busted. Stop beating a dead horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Robert hasn't been on here in a couple years. As a business owner I know how busy he must be. Besides, Robert apologized and admited his forecast busted. Stop beating a dead horse. That's fine. I'm not mad... it's just I see people constantly talking about how he says "this and that".. like it's supposed to be gospel. (BRICK! i am talking to you). Anyway, you are a fellow business man like myself even? Whatya do? Both are good. I don't remember anybody saying roof collapsing snows. I did see Power outages and tree damage which did happen. Oh, idk. I don't read the stuff. Just know in the vent thread about the last storm it was mentioned. I think you guys are getting me wrong. OF COURSE a wedge holds on longer than models show. It has happened many times over. Brick posted that WXSouth said it, so since he said it must be true! Us other peons who said it (look at my post from last night) are looked over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Definitely not a lot of precip out there, so unless something develops in a more robust fashion, I don't know if this thing will surprise to the upside. That said, what a wintry couple of weeks it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's fine. I'm not mad... it's just I see people constantly talking about how he says "this and that".. like it's supposed to be gospel. (BRICK! i am talking to you). Anyway, you are a fellow business man like myself even? Whatya do? Oh, idk. I don't read the stuff. Just know in the vent thread about the last storm it was mentioned. I am not saying what he says is gospel. I am just passing along info because a lot of folks respect what he says. It is just more info to have. If you don't like it, you can ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's fine. I'm not mad... it's just I see people constantly talking about how he says "this and that".. like it's supposed to be gospel. (BRICK! i am talking to you). Anyway, you are a fellow business man like myself even? Whatya do? Oh, idk. I don't read the stuff. Just know in the vent thread about the last storm it was mentioned. I think you guys are getting me wrong. OF COURSE a wedge holds on longer than models show. It has happened many times over. Brick posted that WXSouth said it, so since he said it must be true! Us other peons who said it (look at my post from last night) are looked over. Someone sounds jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 But Cold Rain this was said: Yeah, I could see the high hanging on and the precip locking in the wedge. Not sure what either has to do with causing more precip unless he meant that either having the high around longer creates the opportunity for precip that was supposed to fall as rain actually fall as ZR (thus more accum), or it helps enhance isentropic lift, creating more precip. Neither make the wave that's responsib for generating the precip stronger. Not sure what he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Back on topic...21z sref plumes look similar to 15z for the triad region. .25-.33 for a mean while fzrn is the dominant p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Guys, please take this banter to Liberation Ledge. Thanks: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45602-liberation-ledge/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Aw cute brick, being the idiot moron he is. You do know how many people see you post and absolutely hate you right? You were the one that brought up stuff about WxSouth and kept talking about it. I was just passing along info. You sound like you are mad about it for some reason. I am not trolling anyone but you are being a jerk just because someone shared his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yeah, I could see the high hanging on and the precip locking in the wedge. Not sure what either has to do with causing more precip. Either having the high around longer creates the opportunity for precip that was supposed to fall as rain actually fall as ZR (thus more accum), or it helps enhance isentropic lift, creating more precip. Not sure what he meant. There is some lift coming up through here and as we know.. it's usually stronger than what the models show. The wedge will definitely try to hold on... it's pretty darn strong as modeled anyway. I think towards your way... its a chance at a good amount at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 There is some lift coming up through here and as we know.. it's usually stronger than what the models show. The wedge will definitely try to hold on... it's pretty darn strong as modeled anyway. I think towards your way... its a chance at a good amount at this point. Is your area under a ZR Advisory or a WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Is your area under a ZR Advisory or a WAA? My area actually has nothing. The Northern Midlands and into the upstate have an advisory for ZR I believe. Just rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's fine. I'm not mad... it's just I see people constantly talking about how he says "this and that".. like it's supposed to be gospel. (BRICK! i am talking to you). Anyway, you are a fellow business man like myself even? Whatya do? Oh, idk. I don't read the stuff. Just know in the vent thread about the last storm it was mentioned. I think you guys are getting me wrong. OF COURSE a wedge holds on longer than models show. It has happened many times over. Brick posted that WXSouth said it, so since he said it must be true! Us other peons who said it (look at my post from last night) are looked over. Honestly I don't care I just didn't hear anybody say roof collapsing snow. Now back to this minor glaze. I hope all models under done. All storms since October have over performed hopefully it continues tonight. I'm already at 29 so if anything comes it will freeze. If we get some mist it could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 My area actually has nothing. The Northern Midlands and into the upstate have an advisory for ZR I believe. Just rain here. Oh. I thought you were expecting a little frozen down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Aw cute brick, being the idiot moron he is. You do know how many people see you post and absolutely hate you right? You do know that people commit suicide because of bullies like you, don't you? When you know someone that has done that, it becomes personal. Knock it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Temp is dropping a lot faster than I thought it would, 4° in the last hour. 34.0°/26° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 28.8 here in Colfax at 8:51. Ready for ice! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Oh. I thought you were expecting a little frozen down your way. I was man. I'm around CAE though so you know how that goes. Down here in Lexington, models had dewpoints low and temps cold.. but after today's temps... eh no go imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I was man. I'm around CAE though so you know how that goes. Down here in Lexington, models had dewpoints low and temps cold.. but after today's temps... eh no go imo. I gotcha. Didn't realize it warmed up so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I gotcha. Didn't realize it warmed up so much. It almost got to 50-52F in the Upstate today. Some areas stayed a bit colder though. I think we capped out around 47 here which is odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Temp is dropping a lot faster than I thought it would, 4° in the last hour. 34.0°/26° The marginal/limited moisture/teaser events always overperform for us. If only this could be applied to the forecasted "blockbuster" events. I actually got more snow from the not so talked about early week system than the Wednesday night system. I got 1 3/8's inch from the first storm and only 1 1/4 inch of slop from the "big" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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