superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Freezing Rain Advisory for less than .1". Better get my generator ready and make a milk and bread run. For some reason NAM hasn't been updated on Tropical Tidbits or Twisterdata so I can't see 2m temps or precip type arghh. SREF totals looking a little more impressive than up to .1" with qpf mean of .25" through mid day tomorrow. The SREFs are really bullish here. They have 0.37" QPF before our primary POP turns to rain. The SREFs sometimes overdo surface temperatures, too. I still think this is a T-0.1" ZR event, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice map of where the advisories are in western NC and SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice map of where the advisories are in western NC and SC: ... and the matching map from central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC320 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM SUNDAY MORNING...SCZ015-016-020>022-029-031-010900-/O.NEW.KCAE.ZR.Y.0003.150301T0500Z-150301T1500Z/LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LEE-SUMTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LANCASTER...ELGIN...CHERAW...PAGELAND...NEWBERRY...WINNSBORO...CAMDEN...LUGOFF...BISHOPVILLE...SUMTER320 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO10 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A FREEZINGRAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AMEST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION.* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON ROADWAYS COULDCAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Although I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 If I read the zone numbers right, GSP is going to put out a Freezing Rain Advisory for the entire area except the extreme northern counties where Winter Wx Advisory is going. .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017. NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082- 507>510. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506. SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>003-006>009-012>014. well i was surprised, just loaded the nws page and there is one out. i am really just not feeling this one - its been sunny and in the mid 40s all day. the moisture this morning kept hitting a wall at the county line lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 320 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING... SCZ015-016-020>022-029-031-010900- /O.NEW.KCAE.ZR.Y.0003.150301T0500Z-150301T1500Z/ LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LEE-SUMTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LANCASTER...ELGIN...CHERAW...PAGELAND... NEWBERRY...WINNSBORO...CAMDEN...LUGOFF...BISHOPVILLE...SUMTER 320 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON ROADWAYS COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Although I'll believe it when I see it. Sumter and Lee counties are now part of the northern midlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Is the moisture that's coming for nc tonight down in southern ga now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I came home to visit the family this weekend, will be interesting if the models are right tonight. Looks like a tenth to .15 inch of zr possibility in hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I came home to visit the family this weekend, will be interesting if the models are right tonight. Looks like a tenth to .15 inch of zr possibility in hickory. Welcome home, to wild wild west!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Brad P's call for tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 For you guys in the SC Midlands, I was pretty sure the best threat was the far Northern Midlands. I still stick with that idea. Edit: Sun is still out of course (just now trying to cloud up down this way) and I think the WAA will actually take over in this scenario as the wedge is trying to pull away. My post last night about a stronger wedge this day was actually premature and I believe that North of a line from Newberry across the West has a better chance. Maybe Chester/Lancaster/Kershaw can get involved. Outside of Northern Richland county, I don't see much. The WAA surging North should be enough to warm it combined with the High pulling away from an optimal position. Once again, it's Wintry for NE GA, Upstate, & NC. When was the last time we haven't heard that around CAE? Now, with all of that said, things could bust so please don't take my thoughts 100%. If I get some free time, I'll post a preliminary map on Twitter for possible ZR areas. Here is an example of a map that is in my opinion, too far South with the ZR line; but could be possible for a very brief period of time on the Southern line. It's well North of I-20 in SC and again, the 4KM NAM looks nothing like it as far South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How did the 18z rgem look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 For you guys in the SC Midlands, I was pretty sure the best threat was the far Northern Midlands. I still stick with that idea. Edit: Sun is still out of course (just now trying to cloud up down this way) and I think the WAA will actually take over in this scenario as the wedge is trying to pull away. My post last night about a stronger wedge this day was actually premature and I believe that North of a line from Newberry across the West has a better chance. Maybe Chester/Lancaster/Kershaw can get involved. Outside of Northern Richland county, I don't see much. The WAA surging North should be enough to warm it combined with the High pulling away from an optimal position. Once again, it's Wintry for NE GA, Upstate, & NC. When was the last time we haven't heard that around CAE? Now, with all of that said, things could bust so please don't take my thoughts 100%. If I get some free time, I'll post a preliminary map on Twitter for possible ZR areas. I think you are right on with your assessment. I'll tell you one thing that busted, and that was today's high temperatures. I don't recall one forecast putting Columbia in the 50s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How did the 18z rgem look? Not quite as wet as the 12Z, IMO. However, it still has quite cold temps in NC and upstate SC at the onset of precipitation, mid to upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Not quite as wet as the 12Z, IMO. However, it still has quite cold temps in NC and upstate SC at the onset of precipitation, mid to upper 20s.Thanks. It seems to be one of the best short range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 For you guys in the SC Midlands, I was pretty sure the best threat was the far Northern Midlands. I still stick with that idea. Edit: Sun is still out of course (just now trying to cloud up down this way) and I think the WAA will actually take over in this scenario as the wedge is trying to pull away. My post last night about a stronger wedge this day was actually premature and I believe that North of a line from Newberry across the West has a better chance. Maybe Chester/Lancaster/Kershaw can get involved. Outside of Northern Richland county, I don't see much. The WAA surging North should be enough to warm it combined with the High pulling away from an optimal position. Once again, it's Wintry for NE GA, Upstate, & NC. When was the last time we haven't heard that around CAE? Now, with all of that said, things could bust so please don't take my thoughts 100%. If I get some free time, I'll post a preliminary map on Twitter for possible ZR areas. Here is an example of a map that is in my opinion, too far South with the ZR line; but could be possible for a very brief period of time on the Southern line. It's well North of I-20 in SC and again, the 4KM NAM looks nothing like it as far South. My weatherbug has me forecasted for freezing rain and 31 tonight. Of course this is for Blythewood, not sure what downtown has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Thanks. It seems to be one of the best short range models It has a stripe of 0.1-0.25" ZR for you and I through the central Piedmont, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 My weatherbug has me forecasted for freezing rain and 31 tonight. Of course this is for Blythewood, not sure what downtown has. Weatherbug.. I still think Blythewood will end up too South for anything major. NWS @ KCAE seems to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It has a stripe of 0.1-0.25" ZR for you and I through the central Piedmont, though. Hows about for ol Cold Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hows about for ol Cold Rain? Cold rain...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Cold rain...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You can clearly see on radar the precipitation is way east of what models are showing.. not sure what the advisories are for out west.. I doesn't look like much moisture will make it that far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm kidding with you... You are under a WWA, and it looks pretty cold up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm kidding with you... You are under a WWA, and it looks pretty cold up there. Good. I like ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good. I like ice! The ice i like is in my drink, but some nice coating on the trees is pretty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What time is the nocturnally induced frzrn supposed to start? 39.9°/26° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What time is the nocturnally induced frzrn supposed to start? 39.9°/26° Lunar lift should really kick in during the wee hours of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Lunar lift should really kick in during the wee hours of the morning. Does the phase of the moon help any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Does the phase of the moon help any? Actually, not to get off topic but the nocturnal and moon phase stuff is being & has been studied exclusively to possibly cause major changes in not just our weather, but climate, behavior, etc. We really don't know much at all with how the world/weather/anything works. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Does the phase of the moon help any?[/quote Can't hurt ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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