Jet Stream Rider Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12Z GFS at 24. Hope no one gets too much. Enough with the power outages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The NWS in Raleigh and in Wilmington mentioned ZR for the Sandhills in their discussions. Also, FWIW GFS sounding at dawn over FAY is perfect for ZR. We'll need to keep an eye on the moisture's arrival. Could be a bit of a surprise for early church folks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Matthew East posted on facebook that it looks like a light icing event, not a big ice storm. Of course, we have been surprised before where there ends up being more precip than modeled, or the precip increases as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 RGEM PType at 7AM Sunday and Total Accumulated Frz Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Glancing over data for those in SC, temps look to be slightly warm right South of a line from Lexington and Richland counties. I don't buy it yet, and would expect temps just to verify a bit cooler. Tricky around here tonight for sure. Currently a quick glance is showing 33F or so. CAE's current thinking: MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A THREAT OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME DIABATIC EVAPORATIVE COOLING WHICH COULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THE THREAT EXISTS...THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND UNCERTAINTY THAT THE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HEADLINES AND PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL RAIN AFTER 15Z AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SATURATES AND WARMS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm kinda skeptical, I thought temperatures were supposed to stay well into the 40s today around CAE, we are warming rapidly toward the 50s, if not already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm kinda skeptical, I thought temperatures were supposed to stay well into the 40s today around CAE, we are warming rapidly toward the 50s, if not already there. It's 29 here as of noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's 29 here as of noon. Snowcover FTL ! It's about 45 here, so I'm ready for my minor event drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Plenty of virga showing up in nc... if it keeps on we should saturate the column before models show precipitation arriving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm kinda skeptical, I thought temperatures were supposed to stay well into the 40s today around CAE, we are warming rapidly toward the 50s, if not already there. If precipitation makes it up, North Carolina and the far Northern Midlands of SC are in a much better spot. It's currently 43 here on the Lake with winds from the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Canadian still looking like a period of fzrn. SREF for KSPA is showing higher probabilities of rain than fzrn, but has a qpf mean of 0.34 through tomorrow. If everything lines up right we might have an advisory level event. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Does anyone know what times the NAM will run? Thanks. Birds exceptionally busy at the feeders here in Graham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Does anyone know what times the NAM will run? Thanks. Birds exceptionally busy at the feeders here in Graham. You can refer to the following website for runtimes/status for American guidance: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 18z NAM starts updating around 2:45. Figure every 6 hours from there for each subsequent model cycle. The GFS comes in about an hour and a half after the NAM. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Van Denton! Aleeeeet , Aleeeet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We look good in orange, Frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 If you look at mossiac SE radar, youll see a shortwave or barely noticeable impulse rotating/arching in sw GA given off the surface reflection up toward Savannah and central GA. This surface reflection is weak, but trending a little more heavier and building slightly back west. That is what will be assist with upgliding late tonight/Sunday in the Carolinas along with return flow on backside of HP as it slides ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We look good in orange, Frosty. My favorite color!!! SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NC Piedmont Weather 36 mins · Freezing Rain and Sleet in parts of NC Sunday and then another chance of snow/sleet this next Thursday. Going to be a busy week again. I will have an update including a final call ice accumulation map later this evening. Have a great day and God Bless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Seems they may be underplaying this in the NW Piedmont as a "light icing event." TW I agree. Cold air and pwat, trees and power pole hardware already stressed from Wednesday's event. Maybe we'll see his trend to the NW as other systems have this winter. March is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 If I read the zone numbers right, GSP is going to put out a Freezing Rain Advisory for the entire area except the extreme northern counties where Winter Wx Advisory is going. .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017.NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082- 507>510. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506.SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ001>003-006>009-012>014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 18z NAM stays consistent with a high-end advisory event for the northern Piedmont. Maybe even a low-end warning event towards the border. I'd say Freezing Rain Advisories for most of the NC Piedmont and upstate SC are a necessity at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Temps may be a little warmer than forecast today around here. It's mostly sunny and temp is 38 and we were only suppose to reach upper 30s to 40. Mabe the cold is still trying to come in? It's very windy also. Not long after i posted that skies cleared and the temps soared and the temp here is 48. In a rush trying to catch up, What I failed to look at was the models were actually showing skies clearing/at worst partly sunny for most of the day. Far cry from what I wrongly assumed was going to be a cloudy day. That's a killer right there as late feb/early march sun can do some real damage. Cloud or clear though, The strong sun this time of year is one of the reasons why we don't normally see freezing rain events this late in the season. But If you put the exact same setup/features in january and temps would be quite cold all the way down this way. 1044mb high in the mid atlantic is actually quite impressive and doesn't happen too often. It's a shame it's waisted so late in the year and we didn't get it back in december or jan. all that said, still believe a modest freezing rain event will unfold for north carolina with lesser amounts down into sc...mainly because it takes longer to cool off and much of the precip will have fallen by the time temps reach freezing. (assuming there is enough precip to get the job done of course). I really like gsp's advisory area..pretty much fits exactly where/what i was thinking. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 18z NAM stays consistent with a high-end advisory event for the northern Piedmont. Maybe even a low-end warning event towards the border. I'd say Freezing Rain Advisories for most of the NC Piedmont and upstate SC are a necessity at this point.GSP saying moisture looking more robust and earlier tonight! Don't see an issue here with temps currently 45, bet we don't get lower than 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY....COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OFTHE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVELDISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW TORESULT IN A WINTRY MIXTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-010430-/O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0017.150301T0900Z-150302T0000Z/SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE316 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH...ALONG WITH UP TO TWO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF ICING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE DEEPER COLDER VALLEYS.* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...ROADS COULD BE SNOW AND ICE COVERED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRAVELING WILL BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NWS expands advisories into the Sandhills: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM ESTSUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM... LAURINBURG... RAEFORD... LILLINGTON... ANDFAYETTEVILLE.* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC349 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NCLATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROMTHE SOUTH WILL BRING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION... PRIMARILYFREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE... TO MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT ANDPORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.NCZ007-021>023-038-039-010500-/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0011.150301T0900Z-150301T2300Z/PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY349 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM ESTSUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIADREGION... BURLINGTON... LEXINGTON... ASHEBORO... AND ROXBORO.* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ISEXPECTED.* TIMING...VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...A THIN COATING OF ICE ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL MAKETRAVEL TREACHEROUS THROUGH SUNDAY.* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&$GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Freezing Rain Advisory for less than .1". Better get my generator ready and make a milk and bread run. For some reason NAM hasn't been updated on Tropical Tidbits or Twisterdata so I can't see 2m temps or precip type arghh. SREF totals looking a little more impressive than up to .1" with qpf mean of .25" through mid day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nws just changed my forecast from cloudy tonight to freezing rain likely. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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