tarheelwx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 18z NAM - Check. Pretty consistent. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 RAH keeping an eye on this. Mentions it should be very light with no issues, if it happens. That was basically the gist of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 18z NAM is close at the beginning Sunday Morning, Nice CAD Sig. For a while Who Knows? Latest from NWS, .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTERMIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCEOF SNOW 20 PERCENT..SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SNOWAND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THEAFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHTAND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 18Z GFS coming around. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 18Z GFS coming around. TW Looks like a onset event incoming for a lot of us, these usually amount to nothing more than a few hrs of light snow or sleet before quickly going ZR to rain but still nice to see some more winter weather. Maybe a WWA criteria event over SC since it starts earlier and may last longer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 WNCN Weather Wes Hohenstein 3 mins · WEEKEND FORECAST CHANGES could now bring light freezing rain to central NC Sunday morning. would be light, not major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 18z looks a little juicy , and that's a 1040 high , in a decent spot ! I understand it's on the move, but could be dicy for a few ours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Will we ever get blocking again? Or is that just part of the lore of the good ole days? I'm so sick of having a HP in position for like an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GSP thinks this is basically a non event, but did hint that certain things could make it a slightly higher impact system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Will we ever get blocking again? Or is that just part of the lore of the good ole days? I'm so sick of having a HP in position for like an hour. Nope. Blocking is finished. At least it seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nope. Blocking is finished. At least it seems that way. Apparently, we don't need blocking anymore to have good winters, so oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 00z NAM brings over .10 to western NCby 36 hrs let's see if the GFS continues its trend for earlier moisture on Sunday TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Over .25 over most of ncsc cad areas by 4pm Sunday how long will the cold temps hang on. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I am surprised there is not more "serious" discussion on this next even from the NC crowd. The NAM is showing .25"+ of precipitation having already fallen over the Piedmont with the northern portion still below freezing at 39 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Meh, where we at with the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I am surprised there is not more "serious" discussion on this next even from the NC crowd. The NAM is showing .25"+ of precipitation having already fallen over the Piedmont with the northern portion still below freezing at 39 hours. nam.gif Could be a little surprise, Just like the other morning. They were calling slight chance snow showers I got 3 inches... On the 00Z NAM shows .19qpf falls with temps ranging 26-29, the temp then shoots up to 35 by hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I don't see it warming nearly that fast. I say we get up to freezing by noon to 2pm. Then to 33/34 by late afternoon. What role will snow cover play if it makes it through tomorrow? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I don't see it warming nearly that fast. I say we get up to freezing by noon to 2pm. Then to 33/34 by late afternoon. What role will snow cover play if it makes it through tomorrow? TW Well if this forecast works out tomorrow, there shouldn't be very much melting tomorrow! .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM has .31 at GSO. That's warning criteria if ZR. Maybe a watch is possible. Need other models to fall in line TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS has decent precip through 39 hrs TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I feel all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I feel all alone.Between 6 and noon on Sunday, looks a little dicey from my area, up to CLT and up into the piedmont! The wedge looks stout and high seems to try to hold on! I could see a warning criteria event in GSO and those areas, as the wedge probly breaks down slower and will be colder than modeled! 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You know, I was ridiculing this event before, but the NAM might have been sniffing out yet another event. The GFS just came through with a solid advisory level event and the NAM, of course, was right around warning criteria. We rock at March ice storms going back to last year, so maybe it's our new climo. We overperform when it comes to ice. #ICETOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm here, too.You're in GA, you don't count! ( jk) This to me looks like just some return flow moisture coming up off the Atlantic and being drawn up torwards the big storm in the Ohio valley. Probably just drizzle/ lt zrn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 You know, I was ridiculing this event before, but the NAM might have been sniffing out yet another event. The GFS just came through with a solid advisory level event and the NAM, of course, was right around warning criteria. We rock at March ice storms going back to last year, so maybe it's our new climo. We overperform when it comes to ice. #ICETOWN You all laughed at my event I'm sending you a crippling ice storm!!! According to 0z GFS you're a lot colder than my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Meh, where we at with the RGEM? The 00z RGEM has a stripe of 0.1-0.25" ZR running from south of Rockingham up to GSO and Durham and up into VA. It's further east than the NAM, but it has an event. Looks like temperatures start out in the 20s and rise into the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM, GFS, and RGEM all have .2 -.35 for GSO with temps AOB freezing. Would love to see a watch issued. I could see up to .4 falling before temps rise to 32. My gut tells me we see closer to .2. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 00z GFS is close to a heavier event for the CAE area. 33F with around .16 falling or so but dew points are freezing or below. Overall precipitation looks to be right under a half-inch with the temperatures in the 30s. Lets keep something in mind that we all learned a couple weeks ago. The models severely under-did the wedge and colder temperatures for many. It saved the Upstate from a pretty bad ice storm. With the GFS now trying to jump on board and being down here around CAE with a lot more moisture earlier is a bit worrisome. Raw soundings for my back yard around Lexington literally have .01 - 0.2c surface temperatures during some pretty heavy precipitation. That is something that theoretically should be colder than progged based on model history with a potent wedge established without a surface low tracking close by. Edit: Looking over the 00z GEFS, there is a strong signal for freezing rain well into South Carolina mainly along a line of just North from I-20. 00z ECMWF is not nearly as impressed with the colder idea, but does have precipitation entering the area with temperatures around the mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euros 2m temps are going to run a little warm. It should be cold enough. How much precip falls is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So, the RGEM has had the hot hand lately. If it's correct, this could be quite the ZR event for NC and portions of SC. The other models, especially the 4K NAM, are not nearly as impressed with this event. Will the RGEM put the other models to shame once again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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