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3/1 CAD Event Discussion


JoshM

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What I take away from the graphic is that the HP is slowly sliding east.  It is quite common during this process for the HP to actually wedge south, just east of the mountains.  Sometime thereafter, the trend east of the mountains will reverse - it's just a matter of how long it is before the trend reverses to the point of getting wetbulb's above freezing.  So from my perspective, the graphic does NOT show the hp trying to lock in, and the process if basically playing out as expected - though timing is still in question.  

TW

Yes -- It just shows the CAD reinforcing along and east of the mountains. Eventually WAA will reverse the process and we'll begin to slowly warm from S to N as the low begins to slide off to the east. The graphic was merely for visualization purposes.

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Nice small event unfolding for many across NC and Va. I think we hit this just right by having the cold air in place, a few hours of clear skies last night, and then precip in the early morning hours. Everything is glazed over and still coming down. I need to get one of my kids to sleigh right now and see how fast they would go.

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What I take away from the graphic is that the HP is slowly sliding east. It is quite common during this process for the HP to actually wedge south, just east of the mountains. Sometime thereafter, the trend east of the mountains will reverse - it's just a matter of how long it is before the trend reverses to the point of getting wetbulb's above freezing. So from my perspective, the graphic does NOT show the hp trying to lock in, and the process if basically playing out as expected - though timing is still in question.

TW

Yeah, I certainly wasn't saying anything about the high "locking in" - just that it was still actively ridging south and strengthening the cold air wedge. Winds are still out of the northeast here, but that warm nose is mighty stout. Anyway, we've seen some light icing here this morning. Just saw an alert that there have been quite a few accidents from the ice. It sure doesn't take much to cause problems when it starts sticking to the roads
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Nothing on any surfaces here except cars. Went out around 7:30 to check drive and decide if go/no go for church this morning. Car windows had ice frozen hard but driveway surface, deck, and trees just wet. Took shower and went out to scrape and temp rose enough to soften ice on car windows... From 29 to 30. Ice broke up easy but rain turning to sleet while I was scraping. Raleigh calling for temps to drop leading to more freezing but we'll see. Leaving for church shortly.

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DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROKEN-PRECIP SHIELD

ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA FROM N-CNTRL NC NWD IS AOB 32 DEG F

EXCEPT ALONG NEAR SERN VA COAST WHERE THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE

AIR MASS HAS LED TO TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. THE 12Z GSO RAOB

SHOWED A MELTING LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE

LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL NC SHOW ONLY SLIGHT

WARMING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 16Z. AS A RESULT...A CONTINUATION OF

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE

POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF HIGHER PW PER NC/SERN VA GPS PW DATA WILL ACT

TO SATURATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER DELMARVA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL FAVOR SURFACE TEMPS

BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORT MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE AS THE

LAYER AROUND H85 WARMS.

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