JoshM Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 12z NAM has 1042 HP over NY sliding off shore... How long can it hang on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm in for the torture and my love for fzrn. This will be a story of unrequited love. GFS says what freezing rain? Canadian is just kinda meh. SREF qpf mean is 0.17" with a 40% chance of fzrn. What does the Euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The GFS shows this, too, here. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It's gonna be 70 and sunny. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm in for the torture and my love for fzrn. This will be a story of unrequited love. GFS says what freezing rain? Canadian is just kinda meh. SREF qpf mean is 0.17" with a 40% chance of fzrn. What does the Euro say? The Euro has zilch. For ATL-AHN, the threat is very low imo compared to how the threats for the events of the last two weeks looked in advance. It isn't even close to what was already showing up at this time for last week's big CAD event. Of course, that is a very unreliable NAM map from way more than 24 hours in advance with virtually no support from others. I give KATL a 3% chance for measurable ZR from this. Doesn't the SREF suck doggy doo doo? Is this thread a joke or serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The Euro has zilch. For ATL-AHN, the threat is very low imo compared to how the threats for the events of the last two weeks looked in advance. It isn't even close to what was already showing up at this time for last week's big CAD event. Of course, that is a very unreliable NAM map from way more than 24 hours in advance with virtually no support from others. I give KATL a 3% chance for measurable ZR from this NAM nailed this latest storm. At least for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The Euro has zilch. For ATL-AHN, the threat is very low imo compared to how the threats for the events of the last two weeks looked in advance. It isn't even close to what was already showing up at this time for last week's big CAD event. Of course, that is a very unreliable NAM map from way more than 24 hours in advance with virtually no support from others. I give KATL a 3% chance for measurable ZR from this The Canadian did have a brief period. I just checked the Euro crappy maps on wunderground and it looks like it has a brief period of fzrn in the upstate before the freezing line rapidly retreats. So really looks like a nuisance event at most right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 The Euro has zilch. For ATL-AHN, the threat is very low imo compared to how the threats for the events of the last two weeks looked in advance. It isn't even close to what was already showing up at this time for last week's big CAD event. Of course, that is a very unreliable NAM map from way more than 24 hours in advance with virtually no support from others. I give KATL a 3% chance for measurable ZR from this. Doesn't the SREF suck doggy doo doo? Is this thread a joke or serious? No joke nor a big storm... hence the term "krispy kreme glaze". Just a nuisance as said above, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NAM nailed this latest storm. At least for this area. The NAM was absolutely horrible for ATL-AHN with its well below 0C 850's until within 24 hours, when it suddenly shifted much warmer. But then after that correction, the qpf went way up into the stratosphere with as much as 1.5" vs the actual average near 0.50". This is the NAM at 69 hours without outside support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 12z NAM has 1042 HP over NY sliding off shore... How long can it hang on No ! It won't hang on! Winter is over! Warm and wet next week, just like I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 18z colder and faster with 1042 HP still over NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Even if it does Ice, it will not last with temps getting into the 50s sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 18z colder and faster with 1042 HP still over NY Very interesting look, could we get a surprise event? Climo says it's entirely possible and given this wacky pattern anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Very interesting look, could we get a surprise event? Climo says it's entirely possible and given this wacky pattern anything could happen. Fab Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I don't see much potential if any. I think the frozen precip will likely be nocturnally driven instead of cad driven if there is any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NAM has me between .25 and .5 of fzrn. I wish bufkit had Spartanburg on it, because we hold on to fzrn a little longer in the eastern upstate. If that verified it would meet Ice Storm warning criteria of 1/4" ice or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nocturnally driven frozen precipitation? I've heard it all now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I don't see much potential if any. I think the frozen precip will likely be nocturnally driven instead of cad driven if there is any precip.nocturnally driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nocturnally driven frozen precipitation? I've heard it all now..... Ya... I wasn't even going to comment on that one. BTW, 18z GFS dry as a martini. Nice wedging, but precip is late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 If the HP was over Virginia like the GFS shows, there's potential for NE GA to get in on the action (if this even occurs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 My forecast: "Boom": T-0.05" ZR Expectation: Cloudy skies with scattered virga "Bust": Clear Skies I think some are trying to make this their rebound storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think some are trying to make this their rebound storm. Are you serious? If so, then they are gonna be sadly disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is ridiculous. Even IF (thats a very big IF) freezing rain occurred, marginal at best. 18z NAM prints out 0.12" of it in Bufkit at CAE. If the RGEM is empty, throw the thread out when it gets into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 you know fellas I love snow as much or more than anyone, but I've been so disappointed this winter that I'm tired and am ready for warm and dry. Last night was nice, 6 inches here but ready for spring. never seen so much cold air and nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think some are trying to make this their rebound storm. I think it has been such a disappointing winter...it's become a way of relief, for members to just make fun of these weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Looking at the NAM, Euro, and GFS, all I can say for US 78 is....meh. Nothing of significance. Oh well, I like having "meh" weather when it means no ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think y'all are wishcasting that Spring is going to arrive next week. We still gotta get through March which historically has had major winter storms and cold weather. I wouldn't be surprised to see a warm up for a week and then old man winter come back with a vengeance for a couple weeks in March. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some bowling ball ULL to pop up on models as we get into March. We still got a ways to go before we can put on our speedos and get our tan on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'll take a repeat of March 2012 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think y'all are wishcasting that Spring is going to arrive next week. We still gotta get through March which historically has had major winter storms and cold weather. I wouldn't be surprised to see a warm up for a week and then old man winter come back with a vengeance for a couple weeks in March. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some bowling ball ULL to pop up on models as we get into March. We still got a ways to go before we can put on our speedos and get our tan on. Agree 100% I think any warm up will be short lived, then trough comes back in the east. I heard A Met today talking about March 14-24 time frame for cold in the east again... I'm not saying it will deliver winter weather in the SE! But probably good chance that March will average out a cold month also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If precip can sneak in faster than modeled, It's possible some CAD areas could see a brief period of wintry weather... SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYSUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS..SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN ACHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THELOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT..SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. NOT ASCOOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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