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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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18z-0z-6z GFS has been ticking drier while NAM continues very robust.

That seems to be the gfs MO this month - qpf peaks about 3 days out, then decreases steadily. For the PD3 blizzbust, gfs was 1"+ at 60 hr, down to 0.3" on Saturday afternoon. Of course, they were on to something, as we got only 0.1" LE.

Nice snowhole for my area on that Euro map - another facet of Feb (except for the Groundhog Day mini-blizz.)

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The NAM actually hints that there could be a weenie band north of where it's painting warning-level QPF.

The 850-700mb fronto looks pretty good across central/northern SNE...S SNE gets the good low level forcing.

If it can develop that low like it does, it probably would be something like that. I suppose RGEM will have a say soon.

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I didn't see a huge change in QPF..maybe a bit less on the Cape. I still think this is more or less an advisory event. Maybe a few areas get lucky with more.

 

Watch the weenie band...some modest ML fronto on the north side has been showing up the past couple runs. But if we get 15 to 1 in this, then 3-6" is pretty reasonable with perhaps a spot 6"+

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