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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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I'm in if I'm in town(flying out on Thursday for Europe and won't be back until the 15th), have to pass on the shots though as I'm on antibiotics :(.

And to stay slightly on topic, NAM is beautiful.

So much qpf on that run, but the 0C 925mb temp tickles I-84.

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Will you guys be putting out a map/discussion tomorrow morning?

Yes, hopefully in the morning but it might have to wait until tomorrow evening depending on who from the staff is available to write it. We were thinking 2-4 north 3-6 south but I'm tempted to just go 3-6 whole state given the upticks in QPF and mention potential lollies of up to 8" in ECT as all modeling seems to agree on a jackpot area there.

 

Euro snowmap from NYC forum, this looks pretty accurate for our area but is way too low for those to the south of New England(NYC metro).

 

post-8652-0-03677900-1425105620_thumb.jp

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Thinking the same

Boston folks should have a mini gtg / shots or something if/when it does, as it seems likely next week.

Once(?) in a lifetime occurrence in something we so love merits some celebration.

 

18z-0z-6z GFS has been ticking drier while NAM continues very robust.

 

Meanwhile Box going with GFS/Euro blend but aware of NAM trends, and watches are up

 

Let's see how this goes over next 24 hours. I think we'd want to celebrate when it's a lock or close to it. Looking like Mon or Wed, but whatever people think best, I'm def in as well. I won't start a thread or anything just yet so as not to jinx until we're closer.

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Box:

 

This looks to be a high end Winter Weather Advisory or low end warning for much of the region. We are generally expecting snowfall
amounts of between 3 and 7 inches...away from the South Coast where ptype issues will be more problematic. The NAM is heavier on quantitative precipitation forecast and we opted to go with a GFS/European model (ecmwf) blend. Even these models still have between 0.40 to 0.60 inches of precipitation from near the Pike to the South Coast. This seems to be in response to a weak wave developing near the South Coast...allowing for a more backed low level jet and better surface convergence. With pretty good Omega in the snow growth region...snowfall ratios may be better than 10 to 1 ratios. 

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I'd like to see another tick more robust at 12z to really think warning criteria for a weidspread area and not just lollis.

 

Either way, it shoul dbe a pretty decent little event. It looks a bit better than the last one which was somewhat of a shredded mess outside a stripe in CT.

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