Max Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm in if I'm in town(flying out on Thursday for Europe and won't be back until the 15th), have to pass on the shots though as I'm on antibiotics . And to stay slightly on topic, NAM is beautiful. So much qpf on that run, but the 0C 925mb temp tickles I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So much qpf on that run, but the 0C 925mb temp tickles I-84. Not on the 4km -- colder. Warning event for most of CT and RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Just saw the NAM, yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How doesit look for NeMa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Kind of walking a line here. Can only get so juiced without mixing. Nam illustrates probably best case here.... 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 A bit less qpf on this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Regardless of QPF, it's still trying to pop a secondary to the south which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 where on 0z GFS , do you see it having a secondary to the south? The bagginess of the isobars to the South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 where on 0z GFS , do you see it having a secondary to the south? The bagginess of the isobars to the South? where on 0z GFS , do you see it having a secondary to the south? The bagginess of the isobars to the South? Yeah, the models also peg a weak low south of LI at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Boston gtg Monday or Wednesday, same place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro looks like 4-6" for anyone Pike south, but some taint on the immediate south coast from 925 down to the surface. North of the Pike in MA 3-5, north of the MA/VT/NH border 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro is solid adv statewide in CT. Possibly low end warning, hovering right around the 6" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro looks like 4-6" for anyone Pike south, but some taint on the immediate south coast from 925 down to the surface. North of the Pike in MA 3-5, north of the MA/VT/NH border 1-3. Will you guys be putting out a map/discussion tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Will you guys be putting out a map/discussion tomorrow morning? Yes, hopefully in the morning but it might have to wait until tomorrow evening depending on who from the staff is available to write it. We were thinking 2-4 north 3-6 south but I'm tempted to just go 3-6 whole state given the upticks in QPF and mention potential lollies of up to 8" in ECT as all modeling seems to agree on a jackpot area there. Euro snowmap from NYC forum, this looks pretty accurate for our area but is way too low for those to the south of New England(NYC metro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 potential lollies of up to 8" in ECT as all modeling seems to agree on a jackpot area there. NE CT winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Watches up for BOX for 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS 6 hour precip doesn't seem to line up with total precip, kind of confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Thinking the same Boston folks should have a mini gtg / shots or something if/when it does, as it seems likely next week. Once(?) in a lifetime occurrence in something we so love merits some celebration. 18z-0z-6z GFS has been ticking drier while NAM continues very robust. Meanwhile Box going with GFS/Euro blend but aware of NAM trends, and watches are up Let's see how this goes over next 24 hours. I think we'd want to celebrate when it's a lock or close to it. Looking like Mon or Wed, but whatever people think best, I'm def in as well. I won't start a thread or anything just yet so as not to jinx until we're closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Box: This looks to be a high end Winter Weather Advisory or low end warning for much of the region. We are generally expecting snowfallamounts of between 3 and 7 inches...away from the South Coast where ptype issues will be more problematic. The NAM is heavier on quantitative precipitation forecast and we opted to go with a GFS/European model (ecmwf) blend. Even these models still have between 0.40 to 0.60 inches of precipitation from near the Pike to the South Coast. This seems to be in response to a weak wave developing near the South Coast...allowing for a more backed low level jet and better surface convergence. With pretty good Omega in the snow growth region...snowfall ratios may be better than 10 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That south trend at 6z has me a bit nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That south trend at 6z has me a bit nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice event, refresher. Should be done by morning commute which deff helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That south trend at 6z has me a bit nervous Here's a little song I wrote You might wanna sing it Note for note Don't worry. Be Happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hoping it's like last Saturday night/Sunday. Solid 8 inches to refresh the pack and add to my driveway piles. But like last week, there will be winners and losers based on modeling. Hoping were ALL winners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sunday afternoon I'm driving from the apartment in manhattan, to the house in woodbury, and then to the house in woods hole. Following the snow...Should be very interesting. Have my Great Pyrenees buddy with me along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 3-4" imby 6" KTOL We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'd like to see another tick more robust at 12z to really think warning criteria for a weidspread area and not just lollis. Either way, it shoul dbe a pretty decent little event. It looks a bit better than the last one which was somewhat of a shredded mess outside a stripe in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 They'll probably be a narrow area near 6" give or take with this. I agree with Will in wanting to see more of a secondary low and not just WAA stuff to give warning amounts, but solid advisory seems in the cards at least for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I wonder what Pete B will tell his viewers since he practically said winter was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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