Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 warning level stuff Not widespread enough with the 0.5"+ stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's a pretty big difference in the handling of the phase with the PV lobe from its 12z run. Much more of a phase this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 so... what does Logan need for snow to put them over the top ? 5.7". The record is 107.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 so... what does Logan need for snow to put them over the top ? 1995-96 107.6" 2014-15 102.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That looks great for you and me Kevin. Hope it verifies?Me too! Litchfield and Tolland counties FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 1995-96 107.6" 2014-15 102.0" GFS says we've got a chance to be #1 in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Another even more classic one for Scoots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 1995-96 107.6" 2014-15 102.0" Should be doable upon this next system... Interesting to see the NAM > 60 hour total over .7" liq equ. It is the NAM, but other models trending toward more moisture lends some I would think. Low end warning... NCEP heavy snow discussion mentioned that this system would be more moist relative to intensity to other parameters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Should be doable upon this next system... Interesting to see the NAM > 60 hour total over .7" liq equ. It is the NAM, but other models trending toward more moisture lends some I would think. Low end warning... NCEP heavy snow discussion mentioned that this system would be more moist relative to intensity to other parameters... Compared to last weekend, this one certainly has the feel of more upside potential. I'm not completely clear on the mechanics of this. This seems like mostly an overrunning event in which case upside potential will be largely determined by how juiced and the track of the wave moving overhead. But another factor that seems to be trending better today is the weak low that forms off the south coast. Can anyone explain the reasons for this low? I could be wrong but not seeing anything obvious like strong PVA around at h5, maybe at h850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Another even more classic one for Scoots JP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Compared to last weekend, this one certainly has the feel of more upside potential. I'm not completely clear on the mechanics of this. This seems like mostly an overrunning event in which case upside potential will be largely determined by how juiced and the track of the wave moving overhead. But another factor that seems to be trending better today is the weak low that forms off the south coast. Can anyone explain the reasons for this low? I could be wrong but not seeing anything obvious like strong PVA around at h5, maybe at h850. The digging shortwave in the lakes is causing the upper level flow to the southeast of it to be more cyclonic. This is in contrast to earlier progs that didn't have this or even last weekend have the flow less curved and more straight out of SW. As the flow goes more cyclonic in the upper levels, you get a bit of divergence and it will promote low pressure at the sfc. Esp with the aid of the enhanced baroclinicity to the south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The digging shortwave in the lakes is causing the upper level flow to the southeast of it to be more cyclonic. This is in contrast to earlier progs that didn't have this or even last weekend have the flow less curved and more straight out of SW. As the flow goes more cyclonic in the upper levels, you get a bit of divergence and it will promote low pressure at the sfc. Esp with the aid of the enhanced baroclinicity to the south of SNE. Thanks Will. I figured baroclinicity had some role. The digging shortwave over the lakes is so far away. Like over Michigan state at 6z Monday in a relatively low amplitude trough when the low is already popping up off the coast. Good learning... I didn't realize a digging shortwave can have that kind of cyclogenic influence from so far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 JP! Bout 3 miles to my north. Looking good! verbatim still think it gets dicey around me as 925s go above 0°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Bout 3 miles to my north. Looking good! verbatim still think it gets dicey around me as 925s go above 0°C It will be close but I'm hedging colder right now. Let's see what 00z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice hole over my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice hole over my hood mpm snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 1-3" is probably to low here... Wonder if we can squeeze a low end warning out of this. Once again looks like a nasty Monday commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM coming in more amped again...this thing has been on a pretty distinct trend the past 24 hours. If it keeps doing that, we'll introduce ptype issues for a chunk of the southern areas. But it's also going to increase the chances of warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks like a low end warning criteria for most of SNE on the NAM save the south coast and maybe up near the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks like a low end warning criteria for most of SNE on the NAM save the south coast and maybe up near the NH border. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Is the amount also a north trend? Or is it just juicier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Let's do the record Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We like the trends! Does 0z also have some brief freezing rain for BOS like 18z did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We like the trends! Does 0z also have some brief freezing rain for BOS like 18z did? I don't think so...at least on the 3 hourly soundings I didn't see any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM really nukes it out in the Canadian maritimes. Getting ahead of ourselves and really not for this thread, but that would really help in trying avoid disaster for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Let's do the record Monday. Thinking the same Boston folks should have a mini gtg / shots or something if/when it does, as it seems likely next week. Once(?) in a lifetime occurrence in something we so love merits some celebration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Thinking the same Boston folks should have a mini gtg / shots or something if/when it does, as it seems likely next week. Once(?) in a lifetime occurrence in something we so love merits some celebration. I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm in! Can't do Friday (going up to Maine for the weekend), but I probably could make any improptu GTG the other days. BOS is probably like 1 in 3 to break it IMHO in this next event...show me a few more juiced model runs through 12z tomorrow and it may go to even money odds on the Vegas line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Thinking the same Boston folks should have a mini gtg / shots or something if/when it does, as it seems likely next week. Once(?) in a lifetime occurrence in something we so love merits some celebration. I'm in if I'm in town(flying out on Thursday for Europe and won't be back until the 15th), have to pass on the shots though as I'm on antibiotics . And to stay slightly on topic, NAM is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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