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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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If we can get one more nudge south on the shortwave, then this could be a low end warning event. I wouldn't forecast that right now, but if that scenario occurs, then you would probably have to think about it.

 

Sounds like NCEP's trending that way, too -

 

...THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

THE COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE

SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH AND EAST

FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE AN

EXPANDING AREA OF SNOWFALL SPREADING EASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY

FLOW BEHIND THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAPIDLY

BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON DAY 3 WILL HELP CREATE

AN EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE INDICATION THAT A STRONG SURFACE

SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...SIGNIFICANT QPF WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS

BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL

FALL AS SNOW WHILE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS AND OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY

COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. BEGINNING ON DAY 1 THERE

IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR 4-INCHES OR MORE CENTERING ALONG THE TX/OK

BORDER EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. BY DAY 2...THE POTENTIAL FOR

4-INCHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH A MODERATE RISK EXTENDING

FROM EASTERN KS TO CENTRAL IL WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED

TO INTERACT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM BOUNDARY. MID-UPPER LEVEL

DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON

DAY 3...RAISING A HIGH RISK FOR 4-INCHES OR MORE FROM CENTRAL IND

TO UPSTATE NY...WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR 8-INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS

OF EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN PA.

THE PROBABILITY OF 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER ICING IS LESS THAN 10

PERCENT.

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Wow, very nice trends since my thinking last night. I actually feel 5-8 is a good bet the way things are trending especially away from the coast as it looks like some taint almost reaching Boston on that 18z NAM run. But we'll see. Still should be overall colder than the last event. 

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Still 60 hours out, but I'd probably bring the 4-6 north along the E Coast of MA...they will do well if this trend of developing a closed sfc low to our S is real.

Agreed but I think at this range a broadbrush is fine and then as we get closer and determine if the coastal trend is real or not we can adjust accordingly in eastern areas.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this trend into a widespread 4-8 deal though if the trend towards digging more and forming a coastal is real which I think it may be.

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Still 60 hours out, but I'd probably bring the 4-6 north along the E Coast of MA...they will do well if this trend of developing a closed sfc low to our S is real.

excellent news

 

nice local refresher for Wa Wa and Cpl for my local Fav Crotched Mtn. Conditions in SNH are pretty damn good

 

Also throw a bit more QPF in the pack. I would think any March snow pack records in SNE (esp S shore) are obliterated

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