CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm actually in the "developing a surface low south of LI" camp because that S/W keeps trending more south as it dives SE out of Canada and phasing better too. Well that would be good for the region. Hopefully the other models agree. If the s/w digs too much though..it pulls everything north, but the airmass ahead of it can allow for those northerly wiggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm actually in the "developing a surface low south of LI" camp because that S/W keeps trending more south as it dives SE out of Canada and phasing better too. That could help juice the system nicely but it would definitely bring the 850-900mb layer into play for at least southern CT/RI since the ML lows will be a bit NW of sfc low. It probably would be good for your area up into MA and S NH/VT though...you'd probably want to play with fire in this event to maximize the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 CT jackpot part deux? You guys deserve it. I just want a decent event to inch (not literaly lol) toward the record, and freshen things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 You guys deserve it. I just want a decent event to inch (not literaly lol) toward the record, and freshen things up. Codfishsnowman is about to pull the end scene of "Fargo" if he doesn't get 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Well, it looks like the 12z gfs is about to really juice this bad boy up. Important S/Ws already further south than previous runs and ridging a bit more pumped up out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 At hr 66, it almost looks like it wants to pop a little low near the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Codfishsnowman is about to pull the end scene of "Fargo" if he doesn't get 6". I understand why he is frustrated....I'd be on time out right now. But he should save it for the banter thread for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice little advisory for many. A bit south on this run from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 CT jackpot part deux? No this is more widespread.. Though i think instead SW Ct may be excluded from the Big Jack this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 At hr 66, it almost looks like it wants to pop a little low near the NJ coast. Its trys to blow the low up as it hits the atlantic, Little more moisture back NW this run as it tries to turn the corner, Before its all said and done we will be congratulating Eastport................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Better late development on this run. Watch that northern stream shortwave in the lakes...it's the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Question. The stronger this low is..that directly affects the track of the mid week low right? I.e...it would better help to force more confluence and force things south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It also looks like the trough over the SW US moved west enough so heights aren't as compressed over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice little advisory for many. A bit south on this run from 6z. How is that the case with better development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Better late development on this run. Watch that northern stream shortwave in the lakes...it's the key. The models have been trending for more of a weak coastal reflection the past 2 days as that s/w dives further south and shows up stronger. I think this has some upside too it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It also looks like the trough over the SW US moved west enough so heights aren't as compressed over the SE. Look at you getting ahead of yourself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It also looks like the trough over the SW US moved west enough so heights aren't as compressed over the SE. That's probably good for later in the week...not to get too off topic. But yeah, the variables aren't isolated....the northern stream shortwave digs more...but why? Probably factors that include less resistance form the SE ridges due to a retrograding SW trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's probably good for later in the week...not to get too off topic. But yeah, the variables aren't isolated....the northern stream shortwave digs more...but why? Probably factors that include less resistance form the SE ridges due to a retrograding SW trough. Read my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 How is that the case with better development? I think the fact that the s/w was allowed to dig a bit and help try and develop a secondary near the SNE coast, instead of one primary moving into New England. With the trough in the SW US sort of moving out of the way a bit, heights were lower on the east coast. That helps to allow for a secondary to form instead of a fast flow that can't be compressed (or allowing the s/w to dig) and the primary moving into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 So does that answer my question in a roundabout way? Question. The stronger this low is..that directly affects the track of the mid week low right? I.e...it would better help to force more confluence and force things south? That's probably good for later in the week...not to get too off topic. But yeah, the variables aren't isolated....the northern stream shortwave digs more...but why? Probably factors that include less resistance form the SE ridges due to a retrograding SW trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 But as Will said, it is all related..just a few different pieces of the puzzles helping out. Next week is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think the fact that the s/w was allowed to dig a bit and help try and develop a secondary near the SNE coast, instead of one primary moving into New England. With the trough in the SW US sort of moving out of the way a bit, heights were lower on the east coast. That helps to allow for a secondary to form instead of a fast flow that can't be compressed (or allowing the s/w to dig) and the primary moving into New England. Too it didn't dig a little further west, but then again...if it saved the larger deal Wednesday, then it's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice Confluence there to force Tuesday night south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Confluence there to force Tuesday night south Not on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Canadian still less robust than the GFS, but more organized compared to 00z. More of a south coast deal still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Canadian still less robust than the GFS, but more organized compared to 00z. More of a south coast deal still. I think it's behind the curve this time...synoptically, this just looks like it wants to go more north than what it has shown. I could be wrong...there's always unforeseen variables, but more often than not, the synoptics seem to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think it's behind the curve this time...synoptically, this just looks like it wants to go more north than what it has shown. I could be wrong...there's always unforeseen variables, but more often than not, the synoptics seem to win out. I agree. It almost had to move north by default..lol. It's really displaced compared to the H5 look. Might be keying on a baroclinic zone down there, but I would expect another move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Has the GGEM been colder with the midweek storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Has the GGEM been colder with the midweek storm? No. It's been one of the warmer models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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