N. OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If we can trend that northern stream shortwave in the lakes a bit deeper, then we would increase our chances for higher end advisory snows or some 6"+ lollis. It would infuse just a bit of extra moisture from the south. Otherwise we're trying to live off of just pure WAA from the southwest which would keep totals in that 2-4 range most likely. Would that be a trade off for the PVD -TAn area, increased S Flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Would that be a trade off for the PVD -TAn area, increased S Flow? They prob have enough wiggle room but yeah, they don't want it going too nuts out of the south at 925-950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'd take 2-3 and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'd take 2-3 and runThat's what I would put on there at this junctureHoping to tickle 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think for SNE, this could be almost as good as the last SWFE that dumped 7" and 8" amounts in CT. We got a pretty strong jet streak pointed right at us. PWATs of 0.5" and cooler upper levels with a pretty amped up S/W diving a bit south towards us. I don't know what the lift looks like because I don't have bufkit, but I think it should be pretty decent with good WAA, nice 50+ knot LLJ, PVA from the strong S/W diving south and that jet streak. The major lift looks to be above 850mb probably 800mb-600mb based on that analysis so I'm guessing snow growth should be better than the last event for areas that rained more than snow. Should definitely be more widespread with the jackpot snows. Even though qpf looks like 0.3", I feel it will verify closer to 0.4"-0.6" because of the points mentioned above. Therefore I'm looking at a preliminary snowcast of 3"-7" with a more widespread appeal than the last event. Just my opinion on the matter as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think for SNE, this could be almost as good as the last SWFE that dumped 7" and 8" amounts in CT. We got a pretty strong jet streak pointed right at us. PWATs of 0.5" and cooler upper levels with a pretty amped up S/W diving a bit south towards us. I don't know what the lift looks like because I don't have bufkit, but I think it should be pretty decent with good WAA, nice 50+ knot LLJ, PVA from the strong S/W diving south and that jet streak. The major lift looks to be above 850mb probably 800mb-600mb based on that analysis so I'm guessing snow growth should be better than the last event for areas that rained more than snow. Should definitely be more widespread with the jackpot snows. Even though qpf looks like 0.3", I feel it will verify closer to 0.4"-0.6" because of the points mentioned above. Therefore I'm looking at a preliminary snowcast of 3"-7" with a more widespread appeal than the last event. Just my opinion on the matter as of right now. Thoughts on p-type issues on immediate coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Surprisingly BOX put out a map already, no map from OKX or PHI yet. Odd looking map. I have a hard time believing Northampton and Springfield are going to get more snow than Worcester from this particular system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Thoughts on p-type issues on immediate coast? It's pretty chilly even down to the coast. Looks like Cape and the Islands might be the only places to see a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's pretty chilly even down to the coast. Looks like Cape and the Islands might be the only places to see a mix. Interesting, just that the box map has the immediate coast at lower totals. Even in situations where we don't mix, we don't seem to do that well off a S or even S/W wind where I'm at, though I don't really understand why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Interesting, just that the box map has the immediate coast at lower totals. Even in situations where we don't mix, we don't seem to do that well off a S or even S/W wind where I'm at, though I don't really understand why. You gotta realize that the upper levels really don't taint unless over the Cape and Islands. The surface will stay 32F or lower. The ocean with the SW and WSW winds won't really do much. The sea temperature is below 32F for most with all that ice floating around anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 BOX map was taken down it appears, not entirely surprised given that it seemed sort of early to have a map out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 0z GFS increased QPF, and also the potential for even more looks probable as that is a very strong S/W diving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Stonger SW would grwat, as long as phasing is minimized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Stonger SW would grwat, as long as phasing is minimized. Actually phasing would be better as that S/W looks to be trending to go south of us, so the Low would develop either over us or south of us, which would really be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm not sure I agree. Phase that with s stream and it cuts imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GGEM is a shredded mess still. Probably an inch or so. Weird how it keeps showing that...while GFS and Euro have been insistant on something more like 2-4/3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm not sure I agree. Phase that with s stream and it cuts imo It's never cutting. Look at the angle of attack. It's diving SE. That kind of phase would develop the low to its SE side of the S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm not sure I agree. Phase that with s stream and it cuts imoUgh. Sry Max...I was referring to the Wed deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Well, this system would be a win/win if it keeps trending south and more of a phase because then the low would develop quicker and possibly help in generating more confluence to our north as it positions itself as the 50/50 low. So further SE with the S/W and quicker phase would be helpful in increasing potential snow amounts and getting the Wed deal to trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Agreed. My bad....wrong thread...brain camp. On that note...bed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro still pretty far north, looks like a general 2-4 lollies to 5 for MA, RI, CT and 1-3 for VT, NH, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro still pretty far north, looks like a general 2-4 lollies to 5 for MA, RI, CT and 1-3 for VT, NH, ME. Lollies to 5.7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Snowy snowy system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The map needs and will be adjusted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro looks pretty good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That snow map. Right or wrong, it's horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The map needs and will be adjusted north. Nonsense New Bedford is the new Stowe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It does look decent for a 2-4 maybe 3-5 deal though for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 There's some potential with this one. Similar wind pattern with semi-blocked SW flow...last event was a rare SW upslope event with locally 8-10" from here to Waterbury. I'm open to something higher than QPF would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That snow map. Right or wrong, it's horrible. After this winter is done, I am going to bail on the EuroWx site. It's not very reliable in marginal locations like mine, I think a nice 3-5" for most will do right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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