powderfreak Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 There's actually like a 500mb band that could get powderfreak, lol...exactly the type of storm where he'll post "models only had 2-3" of snow here but its nuking at the mountain and we already have 6"!!"...but on the ML fronto charts it looked like Rt 2 in MA up into S VT/NH could see a little bit of enhancement....it's not overwhelming or anything..but some of the models there were spitting out like 2" of snow and I wouldn't be surprised if it was like 4-5 there. There is like a mid-level deformation zone up here or something...definitely a lingering mid-level area of weak lift with some orographics occurring under it tomorrow morning. I think we may have a shot at some semi-blocked SW flow in the lower levels during the first half, which may help squeeze out any available moisture. That SW flow upslope is what turned the last event from 2-3" into 8-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Speaking of banding though, you can see an axis already setting up in like the ALB-SYR-ROC vicinity so far. If that rolls eastward from there, probably RT 2 area into southern VT/NH would be the zone to watch for enhancement as has been noted by a few on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Didn't the GFS pump up Qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Didn't the GFS pump up Qpf?looks like RGEM now. Everything looks good and on track . But there's always gonna be worriers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Not looking so hot NW of I-84. Trajectory is ENE at best. Comma head should still be decent for southern/eastern CT, RI and southeast Mass. The Pike area west of ORH, low-end trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 looks like RGEM now. Everything looks good and on track . But there's always gonna be worriers GFS didn't look like the RGEM. IT was about a tenth to 0.15 more paltry on QPF...probably because it didn't have quite as good lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I've been checked out but this doesn't look too impressive to me really along or north of the pike. That 4-8" would look good south of Pike. North I would think 2-5". Meh but I like snow so I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We all know the caveats, but I would let it ride for now as far as the forecasts. They'll probably be some surprises and I don't see a reason to rule out perhaps a weenie band near and north of the pike into SNH like Will mentioned. You guys are going to have radar haluccinations for the next 3-5 hrs because the real good stuff isn't probably until after 6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 For learning purposes only... How are people predicting best areas of mid-level frontogenesis? I assume this isn't deformation because it's a pretty weak system, so I'm looking for confluent winds at 500 or 700 or 850 but not seeing anything very robust... Looks like maybe at 03z there is some converging of 850 winds over northeast MA, but not obvious to me... maybe the maps I have don't have the resolution for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 For learning purposes only... How are people predicting best areas of mid-level frontogenesis? I assume this isn't deformation because it's a pretty weak system, so I'm looking for confluent winds at 500 or 700 or 850 but not seeing anything very robust... Looks like maybe at 03z there is some converging of 850 winds over northeast MA, but not obvious to me... maybe the maps I have don't have the resolution for this. This isn't your classic system at all. The 850 winds you touched on, are a start. Basically anywhere where you try and pack the isotherms together are a sign of frontogenesis. There is a weaker signal at 700 off to the north, but IMHO, it's more the 850-700 zone in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 There is a 500mb signal also up in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 ALY thinking NAM will redevelop,somewhat. ..I still am sticking with 6" IMBY...depending on see ondary formation ..WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA WE ARE THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This isn't your classic system at all. The 850 winds you touched on, are a start. Basically anywhere where you try and pack the isotherms together are a sign of frontogenesis. There is a weaker signal at 700 off to the north, but IMHO, it's more the 850-700 zone in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This isn't your classic system at all. The 850 winds you touched on, are a start. Basically anywhere where you try and pack the isotherms together are a sign of frontogenesis. There is a weaker signal at 700 off to the north, but IMHO, it's more the 850-700 zone in this one. Thanks man. Yeah was poring over thermal packing and winds at 850/700/500, definitely not the strongest signal. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This isn't your classic system at all. The 850 winds you touched on, are a start. Basically anywhere where you try and pack the isotherms together are a sign of frontogenesis. There is a weaker signal at 700 off to the north, but IMHO, it's more the 850-700 zone in this one. Thanks Ginx, without access to that predictive mapping, those are the areas I had guessed for frontogenesis just looking at 850 winds... southern MA with maybe some into northeast MA. Really subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thanks man. Yeah was poring over thermal packing and winds at 850/700/500, definitely not the strongest signal. We shall see. 2-4 will probably do it for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We are not getting more than a costing to an inch. Just havent been able to get anything since V day. Then rain on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I was wondering about Tips musing about the ma burial and I noticed it was mostly zr/pl after brief snow. TTN doing well with snow right now and north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 2-4 will probably do it for you and I. Agree, though RGEM argues for the higher end of that, + good ratios maybe we can push 4. Yesterday I was thinking 3-5 for Boston metro, but trends are going drier so I'm less sure. Lift is not the best up near the pike, and add to that Logan 29/9... that's alotta moistening that needs to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Agree, though RGEM argues for the higher end of that, + good ratios maybe we can push 4. Yesterday I was thinking 3-5 for Boston metro, but trends are going drier so I'm less sure. Lift is not the best up near the pike, and add to that Logan 29/9... that's alotta moistening that needs to happen. Yeah I would not rule out 4-5 either..just my higher confidence range. Probably could narrow it to 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Dustings for wawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yeah I would not rule out 4-5 either..just my higher confidence range. Probably could narrow it to 3-4. And to think a few weeks back we were fine-tuning forecasts at gametime by adding on an extra foot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Since we are all guessing BOS to Scott I'd say 3-6" and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Since we are all guessing BOS to Scott I'd say 3-6" and call it a dayI went 2-5" up here..mostly 2-4" tho....mentioned to cover for weenie band. 3-6" inside 128, and 4-7" for Bristol and PYM counties down to cc canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I went 2-5" up here..mostly 2-4" tho....mentioned to cover for weenie band. 3-6" inside 128, and 4-7" for Bristol and PYM counties down to cc canal. 2-5" is exactly what I was thinking. We'll probably end up 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 More weak sauce up this way. The nice thing about this part of the season onward is that with my south-facing property I don't need to bother doing much clearing after these meh events; it gets vaporized on its own pretty quickly, even without a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Dustings for wawa?Already got that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Heavy snow being reported in NYC. Im in Boston so i hope to see that while im here. I would like to see Boston break their snow record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I went 2-5" up here..mostly 2-4" tho....mentioned to cover for weenie band. 3-6" inside 128, and 4-7" for Bristol and PYM counties down to cc canal.These nickel and dimes should be enough for BOS but you are going to need at least that and a strong warning snowfall right?Also Ray, back in the first Blizzard. I recall you were asleep and the currier and Ives snow kept reforming (ne mass) and even pushing back to just past your area for hours and hours. I am certain your area saw a minimum of 1" additional after the 28.5" you recorded. Probably more like 1.5". I was watching the radar very closely that night and it just kept reforming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Euro looks like 2-4 for for many until you get near the 84 corridor points east and south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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