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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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3-7 inches is the forecast in Newport.   That's quite a range.  Tough one, they arent' ruling out P-type issues.  I tend to think that max line is slightly further north, and we get some mixing, unfortunately.

I would lean towards the higher number. Mixing is going to be more of an issue along MA south coast/islands than in RI...

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RGEM looked a hair dryer to me, especially near the Mass border points north. To me it  Looks like a widespread 4-6  for most of CT but the north central and NW areas near the mass line probably more like 3-5. I'm expecting about 4.5  inches here.  Probably about 4 in Springfield and 3 up in Holyoke.  Kevin will get 5.5 and Ginx will pull off 6.5

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Perhaps I haven't been paying attention close enough to this overrunning type event.  The gist of it in the runs was agreed upon enough at just a glance, yesterday ... the day before and so on, that I just figured things were relatively predictable.

 

But then I see the Mid Atlantic currently gobbling up headlines on radar and warning paint alike.  Good for them! They prooobably would like a taste of winter there as they've been sort of left out this season.  Good for us, too ...or ME rather -- I can't tell you how much I want winter to end.  

 

But personal druthers aside, that's a whopper positive bust for them down there in Northern Maryland, and southern New Jersey, at least from what I recall from yesterday.  Interesting. 

 

Farther N, so far rad has become a shredded flurry fest in what appears (to me) to be under-evaluated dry air consumption by the heretofore model depictions of this event.  Huge huge DP depressions entering this, and should the axis of best overrunning really remain that far S, I would suggest the northern regions of the advisory canvas are going to be challenged to verify that.  I wouldn't guess (at the moment) that Logan receives 5.7" out of this, either...   But, folks are talking about jet structures yet to come/evolve and things expected to fill in... 

 

We'll see...

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S coastal Ct to just inland over to S RI to  Cape up to GHG  (w OE) look best now. 4-6

 

Best keep sinking south on RGEM, this is where I would expect messenger to say this one is slipping away S each run, one more tick and it's gone. Although perhaps he reserves those posts for when folks out west of him would be missing out.

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S coastal Ct to just inland over to S RI to  Cape up to GHG  (w OE) look best now. 4-6

 

Best keep sinking south on RGEM, this is where I would expect messenger to say this one is slipping away S each run, one more tick and it's gone. Although perhaps he reserves those posts for when folks out west of him would be missing out.

 

He has a fetish of twisting the knife for those further inland. 

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S coastal Ct to just inland over to S RI to Cape up to GHG (w OE) look best now. 4-6

Best keep sinking south on RGEM, this is where I would expect messenger to say this one is slipping away S each run, one more tick and it's gone. Although perhaps he reserves those posts for when folks out west of him would be missing out.

People will b&tch either way so I've said basically nothing other than to comment that a few days ago everyone was very confident it was north and wet here. DOH!

3-6 is and always has been fine for MBY. For everyone else...if a few inches of snow or whatever is forecast is your thing after all this power to you. Judging from the very few posts I'm guessing most are mehing their way doing other things

(Note on cue Coastalwx with the unfounded remarks as if he just completed the Vulcan mind meld on me and understands my motivations). I could care less what anyone else gets or doesn't get. If I point out a model movement or series of movements it was never intended to upset a shattered weenie. It's the weather and I'm not Dr Phil, man the f up

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People will b&tch either way so I've said basically nothing other than to comment that a few days ago everyone was very confident it was north and wet here. DOH!

3-6 is and always has been fine for MBY. For everyone else...if a few inches of snow or whatever is forecast is your thing after all this power to you. Judging from the very few posts I'm guessing most are mehing their way doing other things

(Note on cue Coastalwx with the unfounded remarks as if he just completed the Vulcan mind meld on me and understands my motivations)

 

It's very logical.

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S coastal Ct to just inland over to S RI to  Cape up to GHG  (w OE) look best now. 4-6

 

Best keep sinking south on RGEM, this is where I would expect messenger to say this one is slipping away S each run, one more tick and it's gone. Although perhaps he reserves those posts for when folks out west of him would be missing out.

4-6 gets up to the Mass/NH border..unless of course you're hugging model qpf..then you'd forecast what you just did.

I expect 6-8 in much of CT with the 8 inch amounts southern 2/3  of the state

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There's actually like a 500mb band that could get powderfreak, lol...exactly the type of storm where he'll post "models only had 2-3" of snow here but its nuking at the mountain and we already have 6"!!"...but on the ML fronto charts it looked like Rt 2 in MA up into S VT/NH could see a little bit of enhancement....it's not overwhelming or anything..but some of the models there were spitting out like 2" of snow and I wouldn't be surprised if it was like 4-5 there.

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