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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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There could still be a bit of a weenie band from the pike up to the N MA border...it won't be as intense as the stuff near the S coast with the good LL forcing there, but there's enough modest ML fronto on the north that we could see some heavier snow further north than the QPF maps might suggest.

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There could still be a bit of a weenie band from the pike up to the N MA border...it won't be as intense as the stuff near the S coast with the good LL forcing there, but there's enough modest ML fronto on the north that we could see some heavier snow further north than the QPF maps might suggest.

 

I don't know if it's what you saw, but it looked like a Currier and Ives band into VT and NH.

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I don't know if it's what you saw, but it looked like a Currier and Ives band into VT and NH.

 

 

There's actually like a 500mb band that could get powderfreak, lol...exactly the type of storm where he'll post "models only had 2-3" of snow here but its nuking at the mountain and we already have 6"!!"...but on the ML fronto charts it looked like Rt 2 in MA up into S VT/NH could see a little bit of enhancement....it's not overwhelming or anything..but some of the models there were spitting out like 2" of snow and I wouldn't be surprised if it was like 4-5 there.

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Could this be mainly done just after midnight?

 

It's bveen modeled that way for a day now. Earlier runs had the steadier stuff more like 10pm to 5am, but since yesterday morning or even a bit earlier it's been mostly an evening to roughly 2am deal.

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There's actually like a 500mb band that could get powderfreak, lol...exactly the type of storm where he'll post "models only had 2-3" of snow here but its nuking at the mountain and we already have 6"!!"...but on the ML fronto charts it looked like Rt 2 in MA up into S VT/NH could see a little bit of enhancement....it's not overwhelming or anything..but some of the models there were spitting out like 2" of snow and I wouldn't be surprised if it was like 4-5 there.

 

LOL, yeah I see what you mean. You can see it at 850 and 700...especially at the leading edge of those bursts of winds at 850 where it cuts sharply to the right in nrn MA. My only concern is that the meat of the storm moves into southern areas and we see one of those deals where it's like they hog the moisture and it's a sharp cutoff north? I hope not, but it's a thought I had.

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There's actually like a 500mb band that could get powderfreak, lol...exactly the type of storm where he'll post "models only had 2-3" of snow here but its nuking at the mountain and we already have 6"!!"...but on the ML fronto charts it looked like Rt 2 in MA up into S VT/NH could see a little bit of enhancement....it's not overwhelming or anything..but some of the models there were spitting out like 2" of snow and I wouldn't be surprised if it was like 4-5 there.

Fluff factor or pure qpf?

I am thinking 3-4" still

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It's bveen modeled that way for a day now. Earlier runs had the steadier stuff more like 10pm to 5am, but since yesterday morning or even a bit earlier it's been mostly an evening to roughly 2am deal.

What time you think CT gets into the steady stuff? Would prefer if we could do it after 4:00. Have a 6:00 soccer game..but also would like to make sure it all sticks to the roads for snowbank purposes

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Did Upton drop the WSW & change it to an advisory? (NL County)

Yes. They're being pretty conservative back this way. But there seems to be some inconsistencies in their products. Their point & click forecast adds up to about 4-8" (<1" today, 3-7" tonight) for SE CT but the rest of their products give 4-6". Wouldn't sweat it...seems low end warning, they just opted not to pull the trigger for whatever reason.

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LOL, yeah I see what you mean. You can see it at 850 and 700...especially at the leading edge of those bursts of winds at 850 where it cuts sharply to the right in nrn MA. My only concern is that the meat of the storm moves into southern areas and we see one of those deals where it's like they hog the moisture and it's a sharp cutoff north? I hope not, but it's a thought I had.

Yeah I'm not expecting a lot out of this system..it trended worse after the 00z runs Friday night. It had potential for widespread warning snowfall, but we're going to lack moisture advection northward now...outside of the S coast.

 

My bigges worry would actually be omega ending up too light and we get putrid snow growth on the northern periphery. That would be a GFS scenario....hopefully the other guidance is more correct.

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I'll have One Giant Weenie Tag here Please. That has got to be the weenie post of the season. I'm a nazi with my snowbanks but even I have never thought that far in any storm ever lol.

Was hoping he'd answer..but to no avail.

I hate seeing flakes wasted on high sun angle salt covered pavement during the day. The more that sticks to the roads..the more that needs to be plowed and the higher the roadside banks go

 

We all think these thoughts

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