Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z runs looked real nice. Just looking at them all it looks as though the rgem was the furthest south with highest totals. Yeah that whole strip from SW CT up to about BDL up to Sturbridge and then east to the coast and south to your area look really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wxrisk.com 1 hr · Edited · YES..I did screw this up I really thought hin was going to be a quiet weekend... I was / will be wrong... I screwed up.... I thought this would stay well to the north of PA MD border.. 100% my bad But I am not going to wait 24 hrs then ... "blame the models. .." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is for Hyannis, the center of Cape Cod. 12z EURO run. Based on this output I just don't buy the mixing/rain on the Cape...solid 4-8 inches of snow if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Watches up for all of SNE pike south 6+ for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Watches up for all of SNE pike south 6+ for all URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 308 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 ...A MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING... CTZ002>004-MAZ009-011>013-015>019-RIZ001>004-010415- /O.EXT.KBOX.WS.A.0008.150301T1700Z-150302T1200Z/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BLANDFORD...SPRINGFIELD... MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY... TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD... PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK 308 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...INCLUDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. THIS INCLUDES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD. THE HARTFORD...PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREAS ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...PICKING UP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW CONCLUDES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY BY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * UNCERTAINTY...WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 6-INCHES WILL BE OBSERVED. BUT WE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHERE AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO WOBBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP. && $ SIPPRELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Watches up for all of SNE pike south 6+ for all Upton split with WWAs for Fairfield and the rest of CWA with watches for New Haven, Middlesex, and New London counties for 4-8. Seems about right for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Thinking the same Boston folks should have a mini gtg / shots or something if/when it does, as it seems likely next week. Once(?) in a lifetime occurrence in something we so love merits some celebration. 18z-0z-6z GFS has been ticking drier while NAM continues very robust. Meanwhile Box going with GFS/Euro blend but aware of NAM trends, and watches are up Let's see how this goes over next 24 hours. I think we'd want to celebrate when it's a lock or close to it. Looking like Mon or Wed, but whatever people think best, I'm def in as well. I won't start a thread or anything just yet so as not to jinx until we're closer. I don't want to jinx it by setting it up before it happens...lol. Lol... Pretty sure N. OF PIKE has me on ignore 18z NAM similar or maybe just a hair drier compared to 12z Gonna be close for Boston, but I think it happens this week. Jerry, I'll let you or Will or Coastal or someone else take the lead on a Boston-area celebratory gtg. Definitely should do it but we should time it right. Pretty momentous if / when this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS has been putrid with qpf this winter. Too high in some events and too low in others . TossedI agree. It pulls the event together, but useless with qpf within 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Kev to south shore looks best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah that whole strip from SW CT up to about BDL up to Sturbridge and then east to the coast and south to your area look really goodSure does, besides a pin the tail weenie band near/north of pike this looks juicy for S SNE . Danbury HFD Tolland area. I'd go warning there.Really liking the Danbury to GInxy area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 2 small trends I'm seeing 0z-12z-18z NAM, maybe just noise but seems to explain the slightly less robust qpf solutions compared to last night: the wave is maybe slightly less juiced, and the surface low that forms off the South coast is just a tick farther east each time, so both the overrunning is less robust and we have slightly less of an easterly fetch along eastern MA pike north but still consistently a good hit CT into southeast MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Lol... Pretty sure N. OF PIKE has me on ignore Jerry, I'll let you or Will or Coastal or someone else take the lead on a Boston-area celebratory gtg. Definitely should do it but we should time it right. Pretty momentous if / when this happens. Haha why would i ? Yes a Mini GTG should be near the top of priorities ASAP. This is a special folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton going 2-6" down here. Weak call by them imo. Just a terrible winter forecasting for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Haha why would i ? Yes a Mini GTG should be near the top of priorities ASAP. This is a special folks That Euro pbp fail several weeks back still stings lol Yes, stepping back, this is a mark we may only see 1 or 2 times in our life, in something we love so much. Gtg / shots / something to celebrate definitely should happen. I didn't want to start a thread yesterday for fear of jinxing. In any case, I get the feeling 12z/18z suites today have started to de-escalate a little for Pike region north, but we'll see. I imagine NWS will scale back on their map this afternoon. 3-5 would be my guess right now for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like 6-8 for most of Ct over to just north of TANAt least. Lollies to 12 in Tolland and Litchfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton going 2-6" down here. Weak call by them imo. Just a terrible winter forecasting for them. I think the big range was because the WWA included all NYC and LI, you are on the higher end of that range. 4-8" for the rest of the CT zones. Heres the latest map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 LOL this is divine humor... Just checked the 0z NAM Bufkit output for KBOS (later runs not yet available): Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| 150302/0800Z 56 34004KT 29.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 5.7|| 0.18|| 0.01|| (this is Cobb output with predicted 11:1-15:1 ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 LOL this is divine humor... Just checked the 0z NAM Bufkit output for KBOS (later runs not yet available): Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| 150302/0800Z 56 34004KT 29.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 5.7|| 0.18|| 0.01|| (this is Cobb output with predicted 11:1-15:1 ratios) Just barely inching over the top...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think 4-8" is possible for me, I'm now interested in this system now that its a frontal wave and not just a passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think the big range was because the WWA included all NYC and LI, you are on the higher end of that range. 4-8" for the rest of the CT zones. Heres the latest map.You're right, I like their map actually. Foot in mouth.Edit: still the advisory in Fairfield doesn't make sense when new haven is in a watch, and the map shows both counties in the 4-6 range. What's the difference between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Updated map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You're right, I like their map actually. Foot in mouth. Edit: still the advisory in Fairfield doesn't make sense when new haven is in a watch, and the map shows both counties in the 4-6 range. What's the difference between the two? They probably just have higher confidence of reaching an average of 6" over a zone in those 3 counties compared to Fairfield. Watch/Warning/Advisory who cares, you're in just a good of spot as anyone else in those other 3 zones. Some mesoscale models even put the higher axis of QPF over Fairfield county versus the other 3. It is such a borderline event for them to issue a watch anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 They probably just have higher confidence of reaching an average of 6" over a zone in those 3 counties compared to Fairfield. Watch/Warning/Advisory who cares, you're in just a good of spot as anyone else in those other 3 zones. Some mesoscale models even put the higher axis of QPF over Fairfield county versus the other 3. It is such a borderline event for them to issue a watch anyways. Agree, I would of went with advisories for all ct counties. If warning levels are reached in isolated spots, so be it....it's sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think 4-8" is possible for me, I'm now interested in this system now that its a frontal wave and not just a passage. See my comment on the last page, 12z Euro output, and most others have supported all snow on the Cape for some time now (albeit heavy and wet). Previous runs didn't allow colder air aloft to translate to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 18Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit of a weenie band with good ratios north of the Pike...BUFKIT looks pretty decent for those areas with some ok lift in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Going to be some decent orographics with this one. Totals in CNE/NNE may be tied closely to terrain as most of the meso-models are showing. The southern Greens could be the jackpot zone with the upslope assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 RGEM juicing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 18Z RGEMimage.jpg We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 RGEM juices up and GFS decides to turn this into a 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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