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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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Winter storm watches out already wow. I guess they must be entertaining the NAM qpf numbers.

 

 

Actually per there AFD they are going with a ECMWF/GFS blend of .4-.6 qpf with possibly higher than 10:1 ratios. They said the NAM would indicate higher amounts than that.

 

 

Its the most boarderline watch you could have. They are barely at 50% confidence needed for a watch and 4-7" which averages out to 5.5 (rounds to 6" over a zone). They are giving future shifts more options, again per the AFD.

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Watch the weenie band...some modest ML fronto on the north side has been showing up the past couple runs. But if we get 15 to 1 in this, then 3-6" is pretty reasonable with perhaps a spot 6"+

 Yeah that would be the areas getting maybe close to warning.  Seems like two areas of forcing. One with the LLJ in CT up through SE MA and the other maybe near pike or just north? Not to get cute..but just a guess.

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 Yeah that would be the areas getting maybe close to warning.  Seems like two areas of forcing. One with the LLJ in CT up through SE MA and the other maybe near pike or just north? Not to get cute..but just a guess.

 

 

Yeah that sounds decent...could also be another area right near the E MA shore with some enhancement from the developing sfc low...winds back more E.

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New RGEM looks pretty good as well. Pretty snowy for the Cape too.

 

Similar to the January Blizzard this year, I'm not totally convinced that the Cape doesn't stay all snow. I simply believe that the models are over-estimating the warming at the surface as temps aloft stay cold throughout. Also, the trend colder doesn't hurt atm...

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5.7 breaks the BOS record, Seems like there's about a 30% chance.

 

I'd bet against it in this one, but I think this on gets us in proper striking distance so that Tuesday night -- or almost anything else from there on out -- should take care of business.

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I'd bet against it in this one, but I think this on gets us in proper striking distance so that Tuesday night -- or almost anything else from there on out -- should take care of business.

Yeah everything has to break just right. Once it's done, we have to have a Boston area gtg to celebrate.

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Euro looks like solid advisory for all of SNE...but didn't get that extra juice for warning. Might be some lollis though. My personal pick for those would be around NW RI...where they can take advantage both the low level forcing near S coast and also maybe some brief enhacnement from backed easterly flow.

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Euro looks like solid advisory for all of SNE...but didn't get that extra juice for warning. Might be some lollis though. My personal pick for those would be around NW RI...where they can take advantage both the low level forcing near S coast and also maybe some brief enhacnement from backed easterly flow.

I thought it looked nice for this area.
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