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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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We're inside 100 hours now and this seems like our next legitimate threat so I figured we'd get a thread going for this. Looks like a generally light/moderate event with a setup very similar to the one we saw last weekend but perhaps a bit colder overall.

 

12z GFS starting us off nicely by increasing snow totals a bit across the board. Looks like a generally widespread 3-5" sort of deal on it except for Maine.

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We're inside 100 hours now and this seems like our next legitimate threat so I figured we'd get a thread going for this. Looks like a generally light/moderate event with a setup very similar to the one we saw last weekend but perhaps a bit colder overall.

 

12z GFS starting us off nicely by increasing snow totals a bit across the board. Looks like a generally widespread 3-5" sort of deal on it except for Maine.

What does "except for Maine" mean, please. Nothing, graze, light snow, heavier snow. Thanks!

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Euro is further north and a better look for CNE/NNE  then the GFS or GGEM, Both of those keep the heavier precip south of CNE

 

Glad to hear.  GFS 120-hr clown maps have consistently been portraying our respective BYs as the snowhole of New England, in fact of everything north of about Lat 38 and east of Lon 100 - shared with far NW Maine, just like climo would predict.  ;)

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than why the blotchy look on the GFS snow maps?

I think maybe it's just picking of on (and perhaps over doing) some elevation related enhancement. Surface temps look below freezing outside of the Cape (even there only looks to go above freezing halfway through the event)...so whatever it is its unlikely related to pcp type/temps. Bottom line, don't fret over model snow maps. Looks like a solid 2-4" type deal, maybe 3-5".

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I think maybe it's just picking of on (and perhaps over doing) some elevation related enhancement. Surface temps look below freezing outside of the Cape (even there only looks to go above freezing halfway through the event)...so whatever it is its unlikely related to pcp type/temps. Bottom line, don't fret over model snow maps. Looks like a solid 2-4" type deal, maybe 3-5".

Certainly not fretting over anything, it just looked odd and the system is not all that strong and does track over us bringing in some WAA ahead of it so temps will be around freezing. I agree that it looks like an advisory type snow.
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If we can trend that northern stream shortwave in the lakes a bit deeper, then we would increase our chances for higher end advisory snows or some 6"+ lollis.

It would infuse just a bit of extra moisture from the south. Otherwise we're trying to live off of just pure WAA from the southwest which would keep totals in that 2-4 range most likely.

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