Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This subforum needs a serious logic check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This subforum needs a serious logic check.That's being polite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I give up. Enjoy or don't enjoy whatever this brings. At least I try to provide some kind of explanation behind my thinking beyond "dude you're wrong!!!" JM you are a good poster and have been for some time. I used to live in long beach and roomed with a meterologist who moved here from Ohio. I schooled him on snowfall forecasts the first year he lived here because he did not pick up on the extreme local climate of being on the immediate south shore until living there for a bit. . Long Island is a very dynamic place weather wise. Drive the 135 from north to south or any other N/S road after any marginal event and it will help you understand it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I agree with this 100% 8" imo is not gonna happen, for anyone, even up here into mid/LHV , marginal ratios will make sure of thatWhere are people getting 8-10 inches from? I'm baffled. This storm has less qpf and strong lifting/uvv's than the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What time is the consensus for this to start on Sunday? mt holly NWS going 5 to midnight. 6 inches possible north of I 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I give up. Enjoy or don't enjoy whatever this brings. At least I try to provide some kind of explanation behind my thinking beyond "dude you're wrong!!!" Wasn't meant to be a "dude you're wrong post". Fact is you've been consistently overestimating WAA in each of these events. I was allowing for the fact that you weren't as far off for the south shore and a look at the webcams confirms that there is a lot less snow down there and plenty of bare areas into southern Nassau. North shore has deep dense snow pack and I was clarifying what I think has been an over generalization. I think you understand the south shore microclimate as well as anyone here, but it (the LB climate) doesn't always extend to the rest of the island. On thing that has been consistent with many model runs over multiple events is the surface, 925 and 850 freezing lines have all been over or nearly over LI (for the most part, it has worked out that way too). And for the record, there was indeed a period of slop last weekend, but when it was all said and done we had increased snowdepth by 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Don't argue please just enjoy this final snow we likely won't see it again for another 8-9 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Mt holly has me 1-3 snow to freezing rain..much like last week but less qpf overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Don't argue please just enjoy this final snow we likely won't see it again for another 8-9 months. I'll take the over on that one. With this pattern, I think we have several snow chances left. Granted it may not be much, but would be surprised if we went 0 for the rest of the season given what LR modeling is indicating with the depth and length of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Don't argue please just enjoy this final snow we likely won't see it again for another 8-9 months. We are not arguing, we are discussing. Arguing is a Jersey thing 18z GFS is a 12 hour event overnight Sunday and is tantalizingly close to an isothermal all snow sounding for my neck of the woods. If it worked out that way would be 6" or a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Remember that at 925MB goes above 0 on the NAM by 00Z in NYC. This system is looking very similar to last weekend system. so Snow-Sleet-Freezing rain-rain-snow. I say 1"-3" city maybe a little more if we thumb befoe 00Z and 6"+ north of 287. Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory are saying 1 to 3 as well. Most posters here seem to think it's going to be more, but meteorologists aren't buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We are not arguing, we are discussing. Arguing is a Jersey thing 18z GFS is a 12 hour event overnight Sunday and is tantalizingly close to an isothermal all snow sounding for my neck of the woods. If it worked out that way would be 6" or a bit more. I think your area is one of the best for LI snow. Anywhere north of either terminal moraine is a solid place to be- and you are ducked behind both of them! People won't believe it- but I just got home from work and today was actually a snowmelting day down here. Very slight, but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory are saying 1 to 3 as well. Most posters here seem to think it's going to be more, but meteorologists aren't buying that. You can add Mr. G to that as well- he calls for 1-2 for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory are saying 1 to 3 as well. Most posters here seem to think it's going to be more, but meteorologists aren't buying that.Add Craig Allen to that list too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Rainstorm threads would be more interesting if we had this much back and forth between .3 and .6 of rainfall beginning 120 hrs before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 TV mets usually start off conservative with these sort of events, give them till tmrw night before they bump up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Because most models are 3 inches or less including everyones famous weenie model NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Some people have lost their minds on this thread. 8 inches??? This is a 1-3" event that will likely change over to ice/rain. It could be even less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 2-4" enjoy it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Some people have lost their minds on this thread. 8 inches??? This is a 1-3" event that will likely change over to ice/rain. It could be even less than that.Look further back lol, 8-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Some people have lost their minds on this thread. 8 inches??? This is a 1-3" event that will likely change over to ice/rain. It could be even less than that. No one ever said 8 inches for you. Not sure if you guys have access to the models but the 18zGFS SV maps print out 6 to 8 in CT on into Westchester. The UKMET drops .7 in the LHV. Just because you hear the higher total , it does not mean people are not talking to you. There is plenty of guidance that this is 4 to 6 in NYC NNJ and onto LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory are saying 1 to 3 as well. Most posters here seem to think it's going to be more, but meteorologists aren't buying that. Meteorologists are making forecasts because that is what they are paid to do. Most posters here are just offering literal interpretations of what model runs say (with varying degrees of accuracy and on occasion way too much editorial). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Pretty cool how the gfs snowmaps are reading most of the sound as frozen and have snow accumulating on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I got called the worst poster because I said 1-3 with no scientific backing which Is false actually yet there are calls of 6-8 inches based on wishes...do not know why I was singled out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I got called the worst poster because I said 1-3 with no scientific backing which Is false actually yet there are calls of 6-8 inches based on wishes...do not know why I was singled out The post was deleted, but ill gladly bring it back if you want to keep discussing that instead of the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 FWIW...I found this on the NE forum 18Z NCEP GFS Snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So much fuss about flaky water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Rainstorm threads would be more interesting if we had this much back and forth between .3 and .6 of rainfall beginning 120 hrs before the event. There probably would be if we lived in California the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We are not arguing, we are discussing. Arguing is a Jersey thing 18z GFS is a 12 hour event overnight Sunday and is tantalizingly close to an isothermal all snow sounding for my neck of the woods. If it worked out that way would be 6" or a bit more. Ed, I've measured about 54 feet of "rain & slop" the last 15 (or just short of 15) winters. I need a new pair of galoshes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I know its Nam . ..but what does it say for sun night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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