Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Comes in like a wall of snow Sunday afternoon 04.png 05.png And then a flip the last few hours on the coastal plain 06.png Real impressive look on that map. Sortive looks like last weekend's event but well be closer to the bulls eye than DC/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks really good. My call is 6-10" across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not trying to be a debbie-downer, but If I lived in Warren County my hopes wouldn't be as high. How many times this year have we seen Warren County in the JP and somehow, Middlessex gets more than them. Although I do understand that this is a different setup, and it is colder up in NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks really good. My call is 6-10" across the board. Bullish but I like it. I'm expecting 9-10" of Wet 31-32 F snow IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Wow, borderline higher end event now. 0.5" - 0.75" all over. Which is in line with the UKIE and RGEM , and what I believe should happen. As long as the SLP exits to your S you will pull the mix line S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Im going to be in Boston till Sunday im just wondering now if i should come back early sunday instead of late. When is the start of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is last Saturday, shifted slightly north to account for the less powerful cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 10.png Total QPF ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Im going to be in Boston till Sunday im just wondering now if i should come back early sunday instead of late. When is the start of this? looks like it rolls into NYC around 4pm Sunday and is out by 3-4 am Mon verbatim on the NAM-some of the other models are a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 10.png 11.png Makes sense to me. Slop and rain near the coast, heavy snow north and west. Remember the warm air at mid levels too, which is often under forecasted at this stage with the mid level lows north of us. More precip means more warm air involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Makes sense to me. Slop and rain near the coast, heavy snow north and west. Remember the warm air at mid levels too, which is often under forecasted at this stage with the mid level lows north of us. More precip means more warm air involvement. Dude please you are wrong. SLP exits to the south of the area and the warmth at the mid levels get muted. All the models but the euro trended colder. This is coming into a cold air mass. It's not rain and slop at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks really good. My call is 6-10" across the board.Based on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Dude please you are wrong. SLP exits to the south of the area and the warmth at the mid levels get muted. All the models but the euro trended colder. This is coming into a cold air mass. It's not rain and slop at the coast. Hard To go against the rain/slop thinking for the immediate coast if you live there when you see model forecasts like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Dude please you are wrong. SLP exits to the south of the area and the warmth at the mid levels get muted. All the models but the euro trended colder. This is coming into a cold air mass. It's not rain and slop at the coast. Mid level warmth doesn't become muted unless the mid level lows close off south of you. The process that generates heavy precip north of these lows also increases warm advection (rising warm air causes more precip). I'll grant that the airmass is cold ahead of this but a southerly flow and no high means the immediate coast is in trouble, like last Saturday where Long Island was largely limited to 2-4" before slop and rain. A setup I've seen a thousand times. Note I'm not talking down chances for good snow over inland areas and maybe even Manhattan or the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Dude please you are wrong. SLP exits to the south of the area and the warmth at the mid levels get muted. All the models but the euro trended colder. This is coming into a cold air mass. It's not rain and slop at the coast. The nam and GGEM have it going south, the euro and GFS have it going north of the area. I think it goes south too but, I'm a little hesitant to say that for sure at the moment. I want to see what 0z looks like tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Mid level warmth doesn't become muted unless the mid level lows close off south of you. The process that generates heavy precip north of these lows also increases warm advection (rising warm air causes more precip). I'll grant that the airmass is cold ahead of this but a southerly flow and no high means the immediate coast is in trouble, like last Saturday where Long Island was largely limited to 2-4" before slop and rain. A setup I've seen a thousand times. Note I'm not talking down chances for good snow over inland areas and maybe even Manhattan or the Bronx. i live on long island...ive been told by people like you everytime before one of these swfe events im gunna have slop and rain...i have yet to see a raindrop from ANY of them...pls stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This will be a more traditional latitude oriented event, this last event was not a classic SWFE, it had insane WAA and strong south winds, this right now has more potential to stay snow longer but at the same time probably won't have anywhere near as much precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 i live on long island...ive been told by people like you everytime before one of these swfe events im gunna have slop and rain...i have yet to see a raindrop from ANY of them...pls stop.How much did you have last Saturday and during the end of Jan SWFE vs places in interior CT and the LHV? I don't know where on LI you live but You didn't see what the jackpot areas there did. Storms like these do not favor Long Island. You might not like hearing it but it's still true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Mid level warmth doesn't become muted unless the mid level lows close off south of you. The process that generates heavy precip north of these lows also increases warm advection (rising warm air causes more precip). I'll grant that the airmass is cold ahead of this but a southerly flow and no high means the immediate coast is in trouble, like last Saturday where Long Island was largely limited to 2-4" before slop and rain. A setup I've seen a thousand times. Note I'm not talking down chances for good snow over inland areas and maybe even Manhattan or the Bronx. Yes. But light S flow over snow pack is not a killer. E flow is. By the time the mid levels warm the damage is done. I think there is .5 to .75 around by the time this done. I think like like sat there is close to 6 inches at KNYC and the N shore. If we both agree 4 is probably on the the S shore and 8 into the LHV. a change at the end is likely drizzle. If your forecast Is 2 to 4 then that's not far off and a lot better than rain and slop . Then you and I are arguing over 2 inches which is a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Note I'm talking areas within 150 feet of the ocean in Long Beach. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This will be a more traditional latitude oriented event, this last event was not a classic SWFE, it had insane WAA and strong south winds, this right now has more potential to stay snow longer but at the same time probably won't have anywhere near as much precip Most of the guidance has come to the GEM and I think the shorter ranges models will come to the RGEM as it has done a better job seeing low level cold air The models have a habit of over warning the mid layers to quickly The one difference I have is I think this is .5 plus system. We will see by 12z tomorrow if the guidance catches up or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Fixed. I give up. Enjoy or don't enjoy whatever this brings. At least I try to provide some kind of explanation behind my thinking beyond "dude you're wrong!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Why haven't we learned to only use the RGEM inside of 48 hours and the Gem-lam inside of 18 hours??? Stop over analyzing this. This is a 2"-4"/3"-6" type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Remember that at 925MB goes above 0 on the NAM by 00Z in NYC. This system is looking very similar to last weekend system. so Snow-Sleet-Freezing rain-rain-snow. I say 1"-3" city maybe a little more if we thumb befoe 00Z and 6"+ north of 287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is 1-3 tops nyc to cj to mix and drizzle...remember the snow if it comes sun afternoon will have trouble sticking at first until it gets heaveier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 3rd GFS run in a row that are colder and snowier . No 925 issues like Sat SV maps at KNYC 4 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Why haven't we learned to only use the RGEM inside of 48 hours and the Gem-lam inside of 18 hours??? Stop over analyzing this. This is a 2"-4"/3"-6" type of event. I agree with this 100% 8" imo is not gonna happen, for anyone, even up here into mid/LHV , marginal ratios will make sure of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What time is the consensus for this to start on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I've seen 9" with temps hovering around 31,32 F . Imo 8" is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.