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3/1-3/2 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather

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Yeh we fell for 4 to 6 last Saturday without blocking huh.

how did that one work out with LP going to our W

The pattern is filled with low level cold air that can't get displaced. The GEM and NAM spin a center up S of the area.

Don't fall for the rain crap. It's snow. Havent been wrong on these this month Not once.

Ride the hot hand and the pattern.

LMAO that violates a number of logical fallacies.

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I wouldn't even care what the euro looks. Typically a SWFE like this delivers 3-6 inches for our area ending as some taint. Thankfully we got this storm coming in during late hours and sunlight will not be a problem. I expect once the sun comes out Monday morning the precip to shut off as some taint or freezing drizzle. Good event imo and a great winter so far.

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LMAO that violates a number of logical fallacies.

How is pattern recognition a fallacy. Do you understand when a model consistently does not see low level cold air and mistakenly warm both the mid levels and the BL it has to correct

The hot hand Is neg epo low level direct discharged cold air that models correct to so often one would have to be blind not to see such an easy error.

Monkeys read models verbatim and go with it , pattern recognition ability comes from years of seeing the models miss those nuances in the atmosphere .

I posted 5 days ago this was snow. It's in the end of Feb disco.

You will not find anyone else earlier . Now I am telling you this will correct colder like the GEM and wetter like the UKIE and NAM .

what was your forecast 5 days ago ?

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The map on SV out to hour 72 has 0" of snow for Philly, EWR, NYC and all of LI for the Euro.  Not much precip either.  Looks like .25-.50 tops.  Some snow north of these area's

yeah, it's pretty dry and warm verbatim.  Has 1-3 for Southern CT and 2-4 just north of that.  Hope it's wrong.

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So it's basically all rain? Nothing like the other models. I wonder what has happened to EURO, it's used to be the best model. How can a model go from so great to so bad??

It has been all over the place this year like the other models typically are.  Seem wet south of that line I described.  Other models seemed to have cooled today too.  Nothing it ever easy!  :)

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This appears to be very similar to last event with mid-high end advisory amounts.

 

I would be shocked if watches went up, for one we are too far out (5th period) and two, you would need an average of 6" in a zone with a 50% confidence of achieving that.

 

QPF is a bit less this time around but one thing we have going is a colder solution compared to last storm.

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