Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 GGEM out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GGEM out yet? Just some light snow. ~0.25" LE for most areas, less North of the city. Colder than the GFS/NAM though with no mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nobody is calling for plain rain, but both the GFS and NAM show a flip to either ZR or IP after the initial thumping, very similar to the last event. And I am telling you look at GEM and RGEM which are colder and goes with the pattern You guys have to stop taking an OP output as a forecast and look outside it's scope. Low level cold air is not seen well and source region matters. Models don't see this air sometimes until they are on top of it and then correct. The model is a tool. You have to look at this from a macro point of view and see what is likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 And I am telling you look at GEM and RGEM which are colder and goes with the pattern You guys have to stop taking an OP output as a forecast and look outside it's scope. Low level cold air is not seen well and source region matters. Models don't see this air sometimes until they are on top of it and then correct. The model is a tool. You have to look at this from a macro point of view and see what is likely to happen. Nobody is arguing low level cold air. 850's bump above freezing for a few hours early Monday morning. Pretty typical of a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Just some light snow. ~0.25" LE for most areas, less North of the city. Colder than the GFS/NAM though with no mixing issues. .25 and cold. Interesting the usually mostly ramped up/warm model, is south/cold, but .25 and cold still gives around 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 .25 and cold. Interesting the usually mostly ramped up/warm model, is south/cold, but .25 and cold still gives around 2-3" Yeah, it's probably 2-4" for the I-78 corridor and 1-3" North of that with the city somewhere on the bubble of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Depending on the Euro, I think you might see a few watches hoisted this afternoon, particularly in the greater PHL area where warning criteria is slightly less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What did the Ukie show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nobody is arguing low level cold air. 850's bump above freezing for a few hours early Monday morning. Pretty typical of a SWFE. The GEM and NAM spin a low up to your S. Will mute any warmth in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The GEM and NAM spin a low up to your S. Will mute any warmth in the mid levels. Well if that happens then fine, I need to see some more consistency first. We're only 48-60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Depending on the Euro, I think you might see a few watches hoisted this afternoon, particularly in the greater PHL area where warning criteria is slightly less. Interesting that the criteria is less for Philly than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Interesting that the criteria is less for Philly than DC. The DC/BWI area probably has more snowfall removal equipment. I know that down in Atlantic County NJ plows are sparse. Sometimes the side roads never get plowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yeh we fell for 4 to 6 last Saturday without blocking huh. how did that one work out with LP going to our W The pattern is filled with low level cold air that can't get displaced. The GEM and NAM spin a center up S of the area. Don't fall for the rain crap. It's snow. Havent been wrong on these this month Not once. Ride the hot hand and the pattern. The NAM (which everyone dumps on when it shows what they don't like) and GFS both trended warmer from 0z and the Euro hasn't budged from a warm outcome. Maybe these are wrong but the pattern to me says it might easily change from snow around NYC and northern areas get the better accums. Just because a past storm did one thing doesn't mean it will repeat when the pattern changes. The GGEM is really on its own with a cold solution everywhere and other models are moving in the Euro direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 The NAM (which everyone dumps on when it shows what they don't like) and GFS both trended warmer from 0z and the Euro hasn't budged from a warm outcome. Maybe these are wrong but the pattern to me says it might easily change from snow around NYC and northern areas get the better accums. Just because a past storm did one thing doesn't mean it will repeat when the pattern changes. The GGEM is really on its own with a cold solution everywhere and other models are moving in the Euro direction. NAM/GFS trended colder from 0 to 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The DC/BWI area probably has more snowfall removal equipment. I know that down in Atlantic County NJ plows are sparse. Sometimes the side roads never get plowed. The criteria was changed prior to the start of this winter....southern NJ is now the same as DCA/BWI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I doubt there will be more than .5" QPF with this storm. You can doubt but these typically deliver the moisture and in fact often ramp up precip totals before the event. Track and thermals are usually the concerns of you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The DC/BWI area probably has more snowfall removal equipment. I know that down in Atlantic County NJ plows are sparse. Sometimes the side roads never get plowed. They have the same criteria now, 5". Don't know where you heard that about less plows, but that sounds bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The criteria was changed prior to the start of this winter....southern NJ is now the same as DCA/BWI: I guess the Philly area got more snow plows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 They have the same criteria now, 5". Don't know where you heard that about less plows, but that sounds bogus. Yeah that is definitely bogus. Even though they get less snow the inland South Jersey, these aren't the 70's anymore where even the main roads didn't get plowed till days later sometimes. All roads get plowed down there and probably have at least the same if not more plows than DC area. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I guess the Philly area got more snow plows... In my small municipality of 10 square miles we have at least a dozen snow plows and probably 6-8 salt/sanders. Some places in SNJ don't have that many county wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GGEM is well south and plenty cold. Ukmet is south of last night and colder then the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 In my small municipality of 10 square miles we have at least a dozen snow plows and probably 6-8 salt/sanders. Some places in SNJ don't have that many county wide. They typically hire outside contractors to plow the roads for major storms down there. Heck even in Marlboro they hire outside contractors for extra help to plow our streets for even moderate storms. (congrats to you btw on your engagement) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 They typically hire outside contractors to plow the roads for major storms down there. Heck even in Marlboro they hire outside contractors for extra help to plow our streets for even moderate storms. (congrats to you btw on your engagement) Thanks Bud, I've seen it where a week after a storm my Grandmother, who lives in Pomona, still has not had here street plowed yet, and she lives in one of the more densely populated sections of Atlantic County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS numbers MMU 2.8" SWF 3.6" HPN 6.1" BDR 4.1" ISP 2.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Thanks Bud, I've seen it where a week after a storm my Grandmother, who lives in Pomona, still has not had here street plowed yet, and she lives in one of the more densely populated sections of Atlantic County. ahhh yeah Pomona's out in the woods, literally. Close to AC, but most of it is in the pine barrens. That might explain why. Relatively small town. (although it does have the AC airport/FAA center and Stockton University) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 ahhh yeah Pomona's out in the woods, literally. Close to AC, but most of it is in the pine barrens. That might explain why. Relatively small town. (although it does have the AC airport/FAA center and Stockton University) As you probably know it's part of the much larger Galloway Township and I'm sure they have quite a bit of money. They can go years without seeing any measurable snowfall and then you get a stretch like 2010-2011 where they get repeatedly buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS numbers MMU 2.8" SWF 3.6" HPN 6.1" BDR 4.1" ISP 2.2" If nothing changes at 0z tonight, Upton may want to hoist watches, this is starting to look like a plowable snowfall Sunday night into monday. The schools up here have racked up a ton a snow days this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 If nothing changes at 0z tonight, Upton may want to hoist watches, this is starting to look like a plowable snowfall Sunday night into monday. The schools up here have racked up a ton a snow days this winter Advisories if nothing changes...6"+ would be a stretch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Advisories if nothing changes...6"+ would be a stretch... Agreed, NWS needs 60% confidence of warning criteria snowfall to issue a watch, but I could see a few in CNJ and perhaps a bit further North due to the prospect of snow to freezing rain if that looks to be more likely moving forward. I don't really understand the obsession with a watch/warning/advisory, as if it has some impact on how much snow can fall. I always think that it's some kid that believes a warning will more likely give him or her a snowday from school. As I always tell kids, study and do your homework instead of praying that Mother Nature bails you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If NYC goes above 4" it will be the heaviest March snowfall since 2009. 3/8/13? I believe that was 5" at Central Park officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.