Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks to be a wet run, prob in the 0.5" LE or so area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Really wet run, 0.5"LE plus for all of metro with a coastal popping of the NJ coast...if all snow a really good hit, verbatim mostly/all snow north of about Rt.78 in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Really wet run, 0.5"LE plus for all of metro with a coastal popping of the NJ coast...if all snow a really good hit, verbatim mostly/all snow north of about Rt.78 in NJ yea models seem to be trending wetter. NAM seems to have it's mojo back too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The NAM is 0.50"+ for all areas excpet far NW areas, but those areas are colder and thus receive more snow. The NAM snow maps are spitting out 6-8" for the favored higher elevations in Sussex, Passaic and Orange Counties with a large area of 4"+ for just about everyone else from Rt. 80 N and then 1-3" for CNJ, NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The Euro being steadfast on a NW areas favored storm makes me favor those areas and the LHV and SNE for snow and slop/rain for the coast. Remember also this is more of a SWFE overrunning storm that can trend north. I wouldn't be excited for this living at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 The Euro being steadfast on a NW areas favored storm makes me favor those areas and the LHV and SNE for snow and slop/rain for the coast. Remember also this is more of a SWFE overrunning storm that can trend north. I wouldn't be excited for this living at home. GEM been on a hot streak as of late...if that caves to the EURO I would worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The Euro being steadfast on a NW areas favored storm makes me favor those areas and the LHV and SNE for snow and slop/rain for the coast. Remember also this is more of a SWFE overrunning storm that can trend north. I wouldn't be excited for this living at home. I am favoring the Gem-LAM/Rgem when they get in range. The Euro has been absolutely atoriocious the past month. Even inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Whatz the RGEM look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Whatz the RGEM look like? Hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks roughly same as NAM with rain/snow line out in mid west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I am favoring the Gem-LAM/Rgem when they get in range. The Euro has been absolutely atoriocious the past month. Even inside of 48 hours. It has been better with this type of storm though. It was very good with the SWFE event that followed the 1/24 debacle which favored I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The Euro being steadfast on a NW areas favored storm makes me favor those areas and the LHV and SNE for snow and slop/rain for the coast. Remember also this is more of a SWFE overrunning storm that can trend north. I wouldn't be excited for this living at home.The UKMET actually supported the euro last night, so the euro solution can't be tossed just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The UKMET actually supported the euro last night, so the euro solution can't be tossed just yet I never said to toss the euro. Just saying that until the Rgem gets in range (inside of 36 hours) and then the most important model, gem-lam (HRDPS) gets in range (inside of 18 hours), we wont know the finer details. I am a big proponent of the Euro, but it has failed miserably time and time again this winter and have lost all my confidence in it. Same goes for the Euro ensembles. They completely follow the operational now 9.5 out of 10 times. The surprising thing about the euro is how bad it has failed time and time again inside of 48 hours, which used to be this model's kill zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks roughly same as NAM with rain/snow line out in mid west.That 1033 mb low pressure will likely have some hurricane force winds with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS has 2-4 and 3-6 amounts for the area, but 850's get very close to freezing on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 OK BX. Point taken. The models are coming the GEM that has not moved for 6 days. The RGEM is aimed right through the area. Low level cold is finally being seen by the other models and should correct further. .5 plus falls so I would expect 6 plus from Monmouth County on N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 As I suspected, going to be some mixing issues on the 12z GFS for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is a mostly snow event. Those precip maps are terrible . The models are coming to the colder solution. This is prob all snow from 195 N and prob down to Philly. Low level cold air is not seem very well by the GFS and I would expect this to be a warning event from Mon on N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The gfs looks fine if it verifies that is. It would be a nice send off but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up further north and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GFS is mostly snow for NYC, LI, SWCT and north. The changeover is at about hour 67-68. Storm is almost completely over by hour 69. 3"-6" type of thing for everyone EWR, NYC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is a mostly snow event. Those precip maps are terrible . The models are coming to the colder solution. This is prob all snow from 195 N and prob down to Philly. Low level cold air is not seem very well by the GFS and I would expect this to be a warning event from Mon on N I don't know about 6"+, that may be pushing it, even with close to .50 le. I don't see ratios being all that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If NYC goes above 4" it will be the heaviest March snowfall since 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is a mostly snow event. Those precip maps are terrible . The models are coming to the colder solution. This is prob all snow from 195 N and prob down to Philly. Low level cold air is not seem very well by the GFS and I would expect this to be a warning event from Mon on N I am not seeing this at all. This is a sub-advisory event for most people IMO. It's a weak, positively tilted trough. There's not a whole lot of moisture involved and and unlike the last event, the lower level jet is not going pump extra moisture into this either. On top of all that, snow ratios will be awful since wet-bulb temps will hover around 32 degrees for most of the event. Upward motion looks unimpressive so this storm isn't going to have a lot of cold air to work with either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I am not seeing this at all. This is a sub-advisory event for most people IMO. It's a weak, positively tilted trough. There's not a whole lot of moisture involved and and unlike the last event, the lower level jet is not going pump extra moisture into this either. On top of all that, snow ratios will be awful since wet-bulb temps will hover around 32 degrees for most of the event. Upward motion looks unimpressive so this storm isn't going to have a lot of cold air to work with either. Its a classic SWFE that usually trends north, there's no high in front of it or blocking. These usually aren't good outcomes for NYC and south. Hopefully soon people stop falling for these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is 10 to 1. The models are seeing .5 plus. I like 6. I wrote that this was going to be a snow event 5 days ago. It's back on the first few pages. For me this is already a win. Now I will push my bed with house money. I like 6. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z NAM LGA 3.2" JFK 3.4" BDR 6.4" HPN 5.6" ISP 3.4" MMU 3.6" SWF 5.0" The only location that stays all snow is SWF. All others have some IP/ZR the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Its a classic SWFE that usually trends north, there's no high in front of it or blocking. These usually aren't good outcomes for NYC and south. Hopefully soon people stop falling for these. Yep. If there was something to slow down the shortwave (like a blocking high), this would be a major snowstorm. Boston to coastal Maine to Nova Scotia is the place to be for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Its a classic SWFE that usually trends north, there's no high in front of it or blocking. These usually aren't good outcomes for NYC and south. Hopefully soon people stop falling for these.Yeh we fell for 4 to 6 last Saturday without blocking huh.how did that one work out with LP going to our W The pattern is filled with low level cold air that can't get displaced. The GEM and NAM spin a center up S of the area. Don't fall for the rain crap. It's snow. Havent been wrong on these this month Not once. Ride the hot hand and the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yeh we fell for 4 to 6 last Saturday without blocking huh. how did that one work out with LP going to our W The pattern is filled with low level cold air that can't get displaced. The GEM and NAM spin a center up S of the area. Don't fall for the rain crap. It's snow. Havent been wrong on these. Not once. Nobody is calling for plain rain, but both the GFS and NAM show a flip to either ZR or IP after the initial thumping, very similar to the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is 10 to 1. The models are seeing .5 plus. I like 6. I wrote that this was going to be a snow event 5 days ago. It's back on the first few pages. For me this is already a win. Now I will push my bed with house money. I like 6. We will see I doubt there will be more than .5" QPF with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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