Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Need heavier qpf this time of the year. 1/2 inch liquid is around 3 inches of snow. Sun angle eats away the snow unless really cold But most of this is expected to fall sunday night, when there is no sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Need heavier qpf this time of the year. 1/2 inch liquid is around 3 inches of snow. Sun angle eats away the snow unless really cold the sunday storm is at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 But most of this is expected to fall sunday night, when there is no sun. Yes, but there will be snow falling Monday morning too. See note above, gfs was 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yes, but there will be snow falling Monday morning too. See note above, gfs was 2 to 4It's not necessarily QPF.. It's more about the time frame it falls in, in other words, how heavily it falls. The sun is also eating away, but it's not horrible quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 there are literally 3 Southwest flow events (SWFE) coming up. They are all trending colder. The first one Sunday night could be all snow. The second one around Tuesday afternoon with heavy wet snow to some heavy rain. (Trending colder) and than another wave on late Wednesday of rain to heavy snow. Amazing winter shaping up! Winter is kicking strong especially if these storms come in during late afternoon or nighttime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What's the word on EURO for sunday night? Seems harder to get late night EURO info these days. I guess people are burned out after so much tracking the last couple months and want more sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I wonder if there is a way to quantify verification scores during stormy periods, or in regions with lower than expected average geopotential heights? Verification scores only tell part of the story, what we really care about is how they perform the one day of the week where the weather is intriguing... RU was curious about that too. I know chris usually posts the ver scores But it's a great point. We sit and look at run after run and it's hard to convince someone that a model has not acted poorly inside a specific period when we all see it correct. I am not sure how they or if they can parse the periods. I Guess you can. I just don't think they do. Hats off to NCEP , hard to convince me that the GFS ensembles were not great this year. That was a pretty good upgrade. Yes, please do go to that thread and weigh in. Have tried to get some discussion going on this topic, but with little luck, so far - maybe because verification scores for snowstorms in this area or even the northeast just don't exist. As I said in the post linked below, most people couldn't care less about scores for the 300+ days of boring weather - we'd like to know how these models do in the kinds of winter storms we see in these parts. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45615-do-model-verification-scores-exist-for-actual-east-coast-snowstorms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It could be just me but the Euro looked a little colder through 120 hours. Storm will probably still cut but might preserve more of the snowpack. I was asking about the sunday night snow, not next week's cutter. This thread is for the sunday night event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I was asking about the sunday night snow, not next week's cutter. This thread is for the sunday night event. Oh...my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Eurowx 96h snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Eurowx 96h snowfall map Yikes, not good. So different than the cold GGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Eh - 2 - 4 inches vs. rain. At this point doesn't really matter to me. This winter and the massive busts have just taken their toll on me. Luckily there are about 280 days to recuperate until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I thought the 6 z nam and gfs looked good Game on, atleast for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nam did get a touch warmer, but much wetter as well. If all snow more like a 3-6" type deal with about 0.5" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nam did get a touch warmer, but much wetter as well. If all snow more like a 3-6" type deal with about 0.5" LEWhat are the snow maps showing for accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Eh - 2 - 4 inches vs. rain. At this point doesn't really matter to me. This winter and the massive busts have just taken their toll on me. Luckily there are about 280 days to recuperate until next winter. Bust ? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I guess the bust in some posters eyes was NYC not getting the hoped for 50-60 inch snowfall season like we did last year with the EPO ridge extending across to Greenland. Expectations were set so high that an above normal snowfall season is still a let down for some. Maybe we all need to wait until winter actually starts to start even thinking about expectations. Ok and yes everyone is entitled to their opinion , but just WOW . I am in Monmouth , you in Nassau and he's in the City not exactly Mt Snow . We all have above normal snow , below normal temps and a top 3 coldest Feb ever . Not sure what anyone was or could have expected , but maybe a sub 10 inch plus 4 winter will set some straight and make people appreciates and understand where they really live . And trust me a few of those are in our future , so I would lock this one away and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 People would of appreciated this winter more if Boston wasn't sitting at 100" for the year so far. Can't win them all. I'm happy with the winter we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The weenies didnt get their two foot snowstorms....look no one should be complaining. .there has been constant snow cover and cold for 6 weeks...what would you do with more snow anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 People would of appreciated this winter more if Boston wasn't sitting at 100" for the year so far. Can't win them all. I'm happy with the winter we've had. Agreed the issue is definitely the spread. However most if the tri state is above average in snowfall so we should enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ok and yes everyone is entitled to their opinion , but just WOW . I am in Monmouth , you in Nassau and he's in the City not exactly Mt Snow . We all have above normal snow , below normal temps and a top 3 coldest Feb ever . Not sure what anyone was or could have expected , but maybe a sub 10 inch plus 4 winter will set some straight and make people appreciates and understand where they really live . And trust me a few of those are in our future , so I would lock this one away and be happy. This! Well put. A 1980s style winter would be a reality check for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 we had one 3 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The 80's taught us that grew up in the era to be grateful for every snow that you got. I.used to have to walk to school miles.both ways without shoes in the unfortunately toasty 80s winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 we had one 3 years ago Many short term memories around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 1980's type winters were not that bad for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 ^^ Unless you ran a ski area without significant snowmaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Banter! Back to the storm please Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 NAM = colder/south, still early but looks like a good hit for N/C NJ and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Mt holly didnt seem to enthused...also have snow starting as early in the afternoon which will not stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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