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3/1-3/2 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather

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Yes, but there will be snow falling Monday morning too. See note above, gfs was 2 to 4

It's not necessarily QPF.. It's more about the time frame it falls in, in other words, how heavily it falls. The sun is also eating away, but it's not horrible quite yet.
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there are literally 3 Southwest flow events (SWFE) coming up. They are all trending colder. The first one Sunday night could be all snow. The second one around Tuesday afternoon with heavy wet snow to some heavy rain. (Trending colder) and than another wave on late Wednesday of rain to heavy snow. Amazing winter shaping up! Winter is kicking strong especially if these storms come in during late afternoon or nighttime!

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I wonder if there is a way to quantify verification scores during stormy periods, or in regions with lower than expected average geopotential heights? Verification scores only tell part of the story, what we really care about is how they perform the one day of the week where the weather is intriguing... RU was curious about that too.

 

 

I know chris usually posts the ver scores But it's a great point. We sit and look at run after run and it's hard to convince someone that a model has not acted poorly inside a specific period when we all see it correct.

I am not sure how they or if they can parse the periods. I Guess you can. I just don't think they do.

Hats off to NCEP , hard to convince me that the GFS ensembles were not great this year.

That was a pretty good upgrade.

 

Yes, please do go to that thread and weigh in.  Have tried to get some discussion going on this topic, but with little luck, so far - maybe because verification scores for snowstorms in this area or even the northeast just don't exist.  As I said in the post linked below, most people couldn't care less about scores for the 300+ days of boring weather - we'd like to know how these models do in the kinds of winter storms we see in these parts.  

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45615-do-model-verification-scores-exist-for-actual-east-coast-snowstorms/

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I guess the bust in some posters eyes was NYC not getting the hoped for 50-60 inch snowfall season

like we did last year with the EPO ridge extending across to Greenland. Expectations were set so

high that an above normal snowfall season is still a let down for some. Maybe we all need to wait until winter

actually starts to start even thinking about expectations.

Ok and yes everyone is entitled to their opinion , but just WOW . I am in Monmouth , you in Nassau and he's in the City not exactly Mt Snow .

We all have above normal snow , below normal temps and a top 3 coldest Feb ever . Not sure what anyone was or could have expected , but maybe a sub 10 inch plus 4 winter will set some straight and make people appreciates and understand where they really live .

And trust me a few of those are in our future , so I would lock this one away and be happy.

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Ok and yes everyone is entitled to their opinion , but just WOW . I am in Monmouth , you in Nassau and he's in the City not exactly Mt Snow .

We all have above normal snow , below normal temps and a top 3 coldest Feb ever . Not sure what anyone was or could have expected , but maybe a sub 10 inch plus 4 winter will set some straight and make people appreciates and understand where they really live .

And trust me a few of those are in our future , so I would lock this one away and be happy.

This! Well put. A 1980s style winter would be a reality check for many.

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