Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 thats not the whole storm...Thanks for spotting this.Correct RGEM Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS has icing from the Driscoll Bridge to JFK by 0z. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs012hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS is also 4"-6" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS is also 4"-6" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS has icing from the Driscoll Bridge to JFK by 0z. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs012hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Only .12" of total precip falls after that for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Expecting 2-3 in South Brooklyn, Hoping 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Not sure why only there but winter storm warnings have been issued for central and south jersey south of I-78 and the discroll bridge. I guess it's because of the icing threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yes bc of the icing threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The radar doesn't look that great for NYC north and west ATM. Anyone look at the HRRR or RAP recently? EDIT- Never mind...radar just filled in almost instantaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Not sure why only there but winter storm warnings have been issued for central and south jersey south of I-78 and the discroll bridge. I guess it's because of the icing threat? Yes, they only need .25" of ice accretion or greater for a warning. This map shows the criteria for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yes, they only need .25" of ice accretion or greater for a warning. This map shows the criteria for the Northeast. Yes! Parts of central NJ mt holly is going with a half inch of ice wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Ice will be the problem not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The radar doesn't look that great for NYC north and west ATM. Anyone look at the HRRR or RAP recently?Radar looks fine. Snow hole has filled in just as modeledHrrr and rap have been awful, wouldn't even bother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12Z run of the RPM accumulated snowfall and 15Z run of the RPM. RPM has been pretty consistent over the past several cycles of runs. Latest run shows little to no mixing over NYC and LI except the extreme south shore. This is per whatever algorithm they use for determining the R/PLZR/SN line. If you had to ask me I would say NYC and LI will get just as much snow if not more than most of CT, RI, and SE MA. Those 2-4" amounts the NWS is forecasting are going to bust in my opinion, 4-6" is more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 My thinking is 3-4 for north central nj with a bit more ice then last storm. For Nyc/LI i think 4-6 with very little ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 My thinking is 3-4 for north central nj with a bit more ice then last storm. For Nyc/LI i think 4-6 with very little ice.Hopefully we can be on the higher end of snowfall before it changes. Daytime will hamper accums though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hopefully we can be on the higher end of snowfall before it changes. Daytime will hamper accums though right? not with the rate its coming down now…everything is covered here in Edison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yes the sun angle will cause the snow to burst into flames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12Z run of the RPM accumulated snowfall and 15Z run of the RPM. RPM has been pretty consistent over the past several cycles of runs. Latest run shows little to no mixing over NYC and LI except the extreme south shore. This is per whatever algorithm they use for determining the R/PLZR/SN line. If you had to ask me I would say NYC and LI will get just as much snow if not more than most of CT, RI, and SE MA. Those 2-4" amounts the NWS is forecasting are going to bust in my opinion, 4-6" is more reasonable. Thanks. Those two runs don't look that impressive for NYC. What's the rational behind your estimate for NYC? I'm just curious. I have the same feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 With the 850s and 925s still cold Upton sees some good snow growth . A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.STILL EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OFICE ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/COASTAL WESTCHESTER ANDFAIRFIELD. EXPECT AT LEAST 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE...AND WITHSHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING GOOD BANDING POTENTIAL LATE THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST AND SNOW RATIOS OF 12 TO1...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT MAY REQUIREUPGRADE TO A SHORT-FUSED WINTER STORM WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thanks. Those two runs don't look that impressive for NYC. What's the rational behind your estimate for NYC? I'm just curious. I have the same feeling. Highest axis of QPF for almost all model runs last night and today centers around NYC and LI. While ratios may be lower there than say KBDL, the increase in QPF should make up and even outweigh lower ratios. With that being said, there is still good omega within the DGZ of -12 to -18 even for NYC. 10-12:1 is still possible in and around the area. Surface low will form just south of us today and strengthening LLJ will promote strong banding signatures over the area and into SNE. I bet we see rates of 1-1.5"/hr for a while this evening. So, if NYC and parts of northern LI stay all snow the highest amounts, in my opinion, may be found there. If we start mixing with, even for a brief time, accums. will be cut down. In these type of situations from past experience usually the greatest snowfall is just north of the R/S line where locals stay all snow. Boston is going to have a hard time getting to 5.7 this event and I don't think they will do it, but this coupled with the next system, they should reach that 107.6 mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I could see a warning going up for the S CT if this pans out the way I expect. 4-8" is my current thinking across CT, looks reasonable as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 With the 850s and 925s still cold Upton sees some good snow growth . Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Highest axis of QPF for almost all model runs last night and today centers around NYC and LI. While ratios may be lower there than say KBDL, the increase in QPF should make up and even outweigh lower ratios. With that being said, there is still good omega within the DGZ of -12 to -18 even for NYC. 10-12:1 is still possible in and around the area. Surface low will form just south of us today and strengthening LLJ will promote strong banding signatures over the area and into SNE. I bet we see rates of 1-1.5"/hr for a while this evening. So, if NYC and parts of northern LI stay all snow the highest amounts, in my opinion, may be found there. If we start mixing with, even for a brief time, accums. will be cut down. In these type of situations from past experience usually the greatest snowfall is just north of the R/S line where locals stay all snow. Boston is going to have a hard time getting to 5.7 this event and I don't think they will do it, but this coupled with the next system, they should reach that 107.6 mark. Im in Boston right now and they are going 3 to 6 for the advisory. Maybe 4 here at most. But how's it looking in the city guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Im in Boston right now and they are going 2 to 4 for the advisory. Maybe 4 here at most. But how's it looking in the city guys? Probably one of the only times this season its better to be in NYC than BOS. 4-7 looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Probably one of the only times this season its better to be in NYC than BOS. 4-7 looks reasonable. Lol seriously this would be the storm that i would be in Boston and NYC gets more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Probably one of the only times this season its better to be in NYC than BOS. 4-7 looks reasonable. I wouldn't mind that at all....Upton lowered their WWA amounts to 2-4 in the last update. I think thats a good call at this point. I've been expecting 2-3 so id be happy with 3. Parts of Long Island could get 4 in my opinion. The higher amounts to 6-7 (or maybe even 8) seem to be setting up a bit north of the area into CT (though it's entirely possible this does make it into parts of Long Island). Similar cutoff to what we've seen basically all winter in terms of the W/E snowfall amounts, though not as extreme and not as much potential as the larger storms to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Highest axis of QPF for almost all model runs last night and today centers around NYC and LI. While ratios may be lower there than say KBDL, the increase in QPF should make up and even outweigh lower ratios. With that being said, there is still good omega within the DGZ of -12 to -18 even for NYC. 10-12:1 is still possible in and around the area. Surface low will form just south of us today and strengthening LLJ will promote strong banding signatures over the area and into SNE. I bet we see rates of 1-1.5"/hr for a while this evening. So, if NYC and parts of northern LI stay all snow the highest amounts, in my opinion, may be found there. If we start mixing with, even for a brief time, accums. will be cut down. In these type of situations from past experience usually the greatest snowfall is just north of the R/S line where locals stay all snow. Boston is going to have a hard time getting to 5.7 this event and I don't think they will do it, but this coupled with the next system, they should reach that 107.6 mark. I'm feel cofident this event is mostly snow, I'm less sure about where those heavier bands set up once the surface low forms. I think I'd feel better if I was in North Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The key for KNYC and Long Island is where does the 925`s get to . Does it get hung up at the Driscoll bridge or I80 and across the N shore of LI . The sleet line is just to the S of Philly but as the heavier precip moves N through CNJ the cold layer is deeper and some nice banding should take place this afternoon in through Monmouth county NNJ NYC and LI . Then its a matter of how far N and how fast does the warm punch come . It is in the mid 20`s in DE so this is frozen . Just which frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I feel pretty good with a general 2-3" in the city. There will of course be some locally higher amounts in the area, especially in our northern zones. I'm concerned that the model outputs weren't factoring in the virga this morning. There's also already reports of mixing in the Philadelphia area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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