snowman19 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Upton pushed up the start time to Sunday afternoon and also upped the chance for snow to 60%, they have it ending early Monday morning, mostly sunny thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 2-4/3-5 type event NAM actually gets a weak coastal cranking on the coast which helps us with precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NAM actually gets a weak coastal cranking on the coast which helps us with precip...curious to see oz suite tonight if ..3-4 inch Snow fall sign me up ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NAM actually gets a weak coastal cranking on the coast which helps us with precip...I's more coastal front convergence/lift driven than an actual surface wave of low pressure, but again, it's the NAM. I don't trust anything it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The NAM GFS GEM all agree for Monday . The Euro`s warmer solution stands alone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The NAM GFS GEM all agree for Monday . The Euro`s warmer solution stands alone .How many times now this winter is it euro or gfs vs ggem ukie nam rgem, this is ridiculous now. Terrible model performance all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 How were the EURO ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 How many times now this winter is it euro or gfs vs ggem ukie nam rgem, this is ridiculous now. Terrible model performance all aroundThere used to be a time when most of us thought the euro was In its " kill zone " inside 4 days. That's really over. I don't care what the ver score says the model has been bad this winter. The GFS has improved and I think the GEM has led the way more times this year than I can remember. But yes I agree. The continuity has been awful this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 There used to be a time when most of us thought the euro was In its " kill zone " inside 4 days. That's really over. I don't care what the ver score says the model has been bad this winter. The GFS has improved and I think the GEM has led the way more times this year than I can remember. But yes I agree. The continuity has been awful this year. I wonder if there is a way to quantify verification scores during stormy periods, or in regions with lower than expected average geopotential heights? Verification scores only tell part of the story, what we really care about is how they perform the one day of the week where the weather is intriguing... RU was curious about that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 How were the EURO ensembles? further south and colder than the op. looks like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I wonder if there is a way to quantify verification scores during stormy periods, or in regions with lower than expected average geopotential heights? Verification scores only tell part of the story, what we really care about is how they perform the one day of the week where the weather is intriguing... RU was curious about that too.I know chris usually posts the ver scores But it's a great point. We sit and look at run after run and it's hard to convince someone that a model has not acted poorly inside a specific period when we all see it correct. I am not sure how they or if they can parse the periods. I Guess you can. I just don't think they do. Hats off to NCEP , hard to convince me that the GFS ensembles were not great this year. That was a pretty good upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 18z gfs looks like the 12z euro just colder with surface temps to start. nyc-north 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I know chris usually posts the ver scores But it's a great point. We sit and look at run after run and it's hard to convince someone that a model has not acted poorly inside a specific period when we all see it correct. I am not sure how the if you can parse the periods. I Guess you can. I just don't think they do. Hard off to NCEP , hard to convince me that the GFS ensembles were not great this year. That was a pretty good upgrade. My guess is that even the Euro is having trouble with the interaction between the Pacific Jet and the massive wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 18z gfs looks like the 12z euro just colder with surface temps to start. nyc-north 2-4 Yup, Euro Ensembles, GFS, NAM, and GEM have a 2-4" or so for N NJ/NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 My guess is that even the Euro is having trouble with the interaction between the Pacific Jet and the massive wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. 500.gif Isnt that a raging negative NAO, just displaced somewhat south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nam continues to look good for SundAy night 2-4 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I keep seeing for nnj NYC how bout us coastal jersey folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I keep seeing for nnj NYC how bout us coastal jersey folks South jersey would have ptype issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 South jersey would have ptype issues Rain on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 what's the good word on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 what's the good word on the GFS? No changes. 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's hard to get too excited about any snow Monday when it looks like it will be followed by a drenching rain a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's hard to get too excited about any snow Monday when it looks like it will be followed by a drenching rain a few days later. Not the time of the year where you worry about a snow pack though. The GFS has a follow-up wave to the cutter that gives more snow on Thursday too. Something to keep an eye on moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not the time of the year where you worry about a snow pack though. The GFS has a follow-up wave to the cutter that gives more snow on Thursday too. Something to keep an eye on moving forward. Yea need to keep an eye on it. Shows like 3 to 5 inches after some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The ukmet looks like it wants to take it north like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GGEM looks plenty cold for this event. In fact on tonights run it looks like the heavier snow goes just south of NYC sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's not like this is a big deal even if we miss out. It won't be more than a 2-4" event at best so it'll only pad our stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The ukmet looks like it wants to take it north like the EuroYea it does look real close to what the euro showed at 12z, the good forcing sets up north of us into New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's not like this is a big deal even if we miss out. It won't be more than a 2-4" event at best so it'll only pad our stats.Need heavier qpf this time of the year. 1/2 inch liquid is around 3 inches of snow.Sun angle eats away the snow unless really cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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