weatherfreeeeak Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro has been astriocous this winter. It finally caved to a colder solution.It's just not good with this pattern at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Careful on wxbell, they seem to be having serious glitchy issues today. The current and previous runs are both the 00Z run, for some reason it says its out to hour 36 but the maps are not updating, they are both 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Definite cave by the Euro. Expect to see some increased snowfall maps out of Upton/Mt. Holly this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Since this will be a relatively quick mover but cold enough for all snow imo maybe some freezing drizzle at the end. I'm thinking based on all the computer guidance NYC gets 4 inches. But this looks like a 4-6 inch snowstorm area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The euro seems to show 2" instead of 1. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Ryan`s maps are always slow SV are much fasterIt's not slow right now, it's having serious glitch problems right now, ukmet shows yesterday's 12z run still lmao.. And I can't even acess the GFS at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Near Old St Lou 6-9" is getting a bang for your buck with .4 PWV http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=dss3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 getimg (10).jpg Still shows only 2 inches for nyc Looks more like the Euro trended towards other models as opposed to caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 getimg (10).jpg Still shows only 2 inches for nyc WB high res maps shows 4 . 850`S never get above - 1 That model thinks a BL of 34 is not snow . So it shows 2 max .4 on the Euro at KNYC it is snow . Clearly colder and its QPF is fine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks like a little stripe of 6+" near the CT coast on both eurowx and wxbell maps. Mostly 4-6 for the state. I think 4-7 is a good call right now for the state maybe some localized 8 or 9" amounts. BUFKIT indicates 10:1 close to the shore with closer to 12:1 farther inland. I'd probably go with 3-6 for the city. Upton may want to consider watches this afternoon at least for the CT zones but I doubt they will, we'll see. I have a feeling those watches box issued will go over to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 If it's true that the Euro keeps the 850 line south of NYC, I'd agree it is underplaying snow amounts on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What are temps like above 850mb, or 925mb, etc? We can't just look at 850mb and assume snow in a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What are temps like above 850mb, or 925mb, etc? We can't just look at 850mb and assume snow in a SWFE. This is likely 2-4 with some ice in NYC At 42 hrs 925 temp is 0 to +4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Your Experimental Over/Under betting line http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 When we really look at it, is it much of a "model battle"? NAM/RGEM are 3-4" trended a bit lower, GFS 2-3" trended a bit lower, euro 2" trended a bit higher. Altogether, they're all pretty close and seem to be a converging on a 2-3" solution for the most part with some 4" amounts possible, with 4-8" north of the area and into CT. Sure anything could happen, but general there doesn't seem to be any wild swings on the models, and the run to run changes are more subtle than people are making them seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What are temps like above 850mb, or 925mb, etc? We can't just look at 850mb and assume snow in a SWFE. So for SWFEs, all layers have to be sub freazing with the exception of 2M temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What are temps like above 850mb, or 925mb, etc? We can't just look at 850mb and assume snow in a SWFE. Precip ends at hour 42 - 925s are 0 at KNYC and 1 on Long Island . 850`s are -1 Nothing falls at hour 48 - . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is likely 2-4 with some ice in NYC At 42 hrs 925 temp is 0 to +4 It looks like the 925 jet bends more SW pushing above freezing while the 850 flow is more WSW and colder. But lt's all on the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The euro seems to show 2" instead of 1. Am I missing something?Youre not missing anything, it's showing around 3 inches for Rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So for SWFEs, all layers have to be sub freazing with the exception of 2M temps? No, that's generally what you need for snow vs ice/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks like a little stripe of 6+" near the CT coast on both eurowx and wxbell maps. Mostly 4-6 for the state. I think 4-7 is a good call right now for the state maybe some localized 8 or 9" amounts. BUFKIT indicates 10:1 close to the shore with closer to 12:1 farther inland. Except there is no CT shore with the Sound iced over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 No, that's generally what you need for snow vs ice/sleet. So, if 925's are above freazing and the entire column below is freazing or colder, you get sleet? I'm used to paying attention to 850's and below. Thanks for the schooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 If it's true that the Euro keeps the 850 line south of NYC, I'd agree it is underplaying snow amounts on the south side. it's lower than 850 that's been screwing us all winter. "us" being south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Except there is no CT shore with the Sound iced over. touché Good news for people living on the "shore" now they are technically in a location similar to Hartford in any other given winter. The shore has moved to the south of LI. Hey maybe ill walk over the sound and come visit. This is OT but did you hear about a group of people debating to walk from LI to CT over the sound? There is a forum thread dedicated to this on some website I was reading. Not sure if it has ever been done before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 When we really look at it, is it much of a "model battle"? NAM/RGEM are 3-4" trended a bit lower, GFS 2-3" trended a bit lower, euro 2" trended a bit higher. Altogether, they're all pretty close and seem to be a converging on a 2-3" solution for the most part with some 4" amounts possible, with 4-8" north of the area and into CT. Sure anything could happen, but general there doesn't seem to be any wild swings on the models, and the run to run changes are more subtle than people are making them seemOne thing is certain, this storm is an extremely fast mover and really has the jets on, it's in and out very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 much of the sound remain ice free when i flew over yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think it's time for a WWA in 40 min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 dm's crude cast LOOP IT http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-700mb-25 700mb rh on the improve....into Pennsy this afternoon we need things to moisten up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 touché Good news for people living on the "shore" now they are technically in a location similar to Hartford in any other given winter. The shore has moved to the south of LI. Hey maybe ill walk over the sound and come visit. This is OT but did you hear about a group of people debating to walk from LI to CT over the sound? There is a forum thread dedicated to this on some website I was reading. Not sure if it has ever been done before? Walking across the sound without skills on loan from Jesus would be an extension of natural selection. If it was safe, it would be an interesting idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think in general it'll be the same as the storm a week ago-trace to 2" south of I-195, 2" on the southern beaches and along I-78, 4" on the north shore and northern NYC and along I-80, 6" for CT, most of Westchester, Rockland and N NJ. It seems like models are coming to a middle ground between the Euro and the colder models which have a thump everywhere to start and then sleet/rain from south to north. It seems like that might come as the precip is ending for many, so it'll be about how strong the WAA is aloft. Tricky call. If you mean Saturday of last weekend, Monmouth and Ocean Counties had 3"-5" and Burlington County had upwards of 6"... jm - perhaps you have your storms confused (I know I have a hard time keeping track of them, since there have been so many and so many similar ones this winter), as the 2/21 storm delivered a solid 4-8" for just about all of SE PA/South Jersey (except Cape May/Atlantic Counties) and a solid 3-6" for the rest of NJ north of 195. In the New Brunswick-Edison area, we got about 4" of snow and then about 0.2" of ZR on top of that with temps only getting to 33F after about 1 am, much later than expected. Would love to get a repeat of that much frozen precip. http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=menu&target=wint1415snowtotals#2/21-2/22/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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