PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hey, did you see the Upton discussion this morning? They are calling for a crazy fast, short duration event, starting like 3-4pm tomorrow and ending late tomorrow night before midnight or very early morning morning for eastern areas We will see what the afternoon update looks like . I think they will go 2 to 4 from the city onto Long Island . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Mount Holly's snow map is a joke. After having 1 to 2 yesterday, I see they now have less than an inch for Middlesex county. Funny that they lowered amounts as the models went snowier. Hopefully they'll put out a better map this afternoon. We should get at least a few inches here in Middlesex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton and Taunton seem to be in two different worlds with this one. OKX AFD is saying 2-5 for CT and Taunton 4-8 for their CT zones. The way this is heading its probably safer to be in southern CT for the heaviest axis of qpf, depends on which model you believe of course. But still 1-3 NYC/LI 2-5 LHV CT is too low imo. Ever since the blizzard it seems uptons been way more conservative than box, I have plenty of maps saved that show the discontinuity between CWAs as you jump over from BOX zones to OKX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 the gfs keeps getting drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton and Taunton seem to be in two different worlds with this one. OKX AFD is saying 2-5 for CT and Taunton 4-8 for their CT zones. The way this is heading its probably safer to be in southern CT for the heaviest axis of qpf, depends on which model you believe of course. But still 1-3 NYC/LI 2-5 LHV CT is too low imo. Ever since the blizzard it seems uptons been way more conservative than box, I have plenty of maps saved that show the discontinuity between CWAs as you jump over from BOX zones to OKX. You blame them? Look at the ramifications of their bust. Plus, they haven't always been conservative the last month. They went with a Blizzard Warning for Suffolk on Valentine's Day; we know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton and Taunton seem to be in two different worlds with this one. OKX AFD is saying 2-5 for CT and Taunton 4-8 for their CT zones. The way this is heading its probably safer to be in southern CT for the heaviest axis of qpf, depends on which model you believe of course. But still 1-3 NYC/LI 2-5 LHV CT is too low imo. Ever since the blizzard it seems uptons been way more conservative than box, I have plenty of maps saved that show the discontinuity between CWAs as you jump over from BOX zones to OKX. I think in general it'll be the same as the storm a week ago-trace to 2" south of I-195, 2" on the southern beaches and along I-78, 4" on the north shore and northern NYC and along I-80, 6" for CT, most of Westchester, Rockland and N NJ. It seems like models are coming to a middle ground between the Euro and the colder models which have a thump everywhere to start and then sleet/rain from south to north. It seems like that might come as the precip is ending for many, so it'll be about how strong the WAA is aloft. Tricky call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Why no gfs discussion. .is it because it cut back snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 it'll be the same as the storm a week ago-trace to 2" south of I-195 If you mean Saturday of last weekend, Monmouth and Ocean Counties had 3"-5" and Burlington County had upwards of 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You blame them? Look at the ramifications of their bust. Plus, they haven't always been conservative the last month. They went with a Blizzard Warning for Suffolk on Valentine's Day; we know how that turned out. True, that was one instance they went pretty bullish with those blizzard warnings for CT coast the busted horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton and Taunton seem to be in two different worlds with this one. OKX AFD is saying 2-5 for CT and Taunton 4-8 for their CT zones. The way this is heading its probably safer to be in southern CT for the heaviest axis of qpf, depends on which model you believe of course. But still 1-3 NYC/LI 2-5 LHV CT is too low imo. Ever since the blizzard it seems uptons been way more conservative than box, I have plenty of maps saved that show the discontinuity between CWAs as you jump over from BOX zones to OKX. It's good to see Southern CT posters in our forum since its in the OKX forecast zones. I love visiting the New Haven County area so it's great to get feedback on what's happening there in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think in general it'll be the same as the storm a week ago-trace to 2" south of I-195, 2" on the southern beaches and along I-78, 4" on the north shore and northern NYC and along I-80, 6" for CT, most of Westchester, Rockland and N NJ. It seems like models are coming to a middle ground between the Euro and the colder models which have a thump everywhere to start and then sleet/rain from south to north. It seems like that might come as the precip is ending for many, so it'll be about how strong the WAA is aloft. Tricky call. Welcome back I think overall this a colder storm, but doesn't seem as beefy with qpf and overall length of the storm. Should be somewhat similar, although im not expecting any mixing to make it up into CT. As of the 12Z suite almost all models are mostly snow for all of CT. NYC and LI got exceptionally colder as well with some mixing issues but not much especially for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think in general it'll be the same as the storm a week ago-trace to 2" south of I-195, 2" on the southern beaches and along I-78, 4" on the north shore and northern NYC and along I-80, 6" for CT, most of Westchester, Rockland and N NJ. It seems like models are coming to a middle ground between the Euro and the colder models which have a thump everywhere to start and then sleet/rain from south to north. It seems like that might come as the precip is ending for many, so it'll be about how strong the WAA is aloft. Tricky call.Glad to have you back brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 If you mean Saturday of last weekend, Monmouth and Ocean Counties had 3"-5" and Burlington County had upwards of 6"... I should've clarified that I meant closer to the coast and around this forum area but yeah, that one was more impressive SW of NYC and especially toward BWI. It depends on how the snow comes in-if it comes in like a wall and the SE winds don't do much damage I might be too conservative for southern areas. We'll have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS caved to the Rgem. As did the NAM. 3"-6" event coming for all with isolated 6"-8" amounts. Rgem has that near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's good to see Southern CT posters in our forum since its in the OKX forecast zones. I love visiting the New Haven County area so it's great to get feedback on what's happening there in real time. Nice! New Haven is a great area contrary to what many people might say who live around here. As long as people don't mind someone from CT posting in a NYC forum, I'd be happy to post some insight into what's happening with models and obs and such. I'll have my B.S. in meteorology in a few months so hopefully I can be of some use. This is a great board, I just joined in the summer of 14. Anyways, back to the topic, ECMWF is currently processing hour 12 from 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I should've clarified that I meant closer to the coast and around this forum area but yeah, that one was more impressive SW of NYC and especially toward BWI. This maybe a new record for SWFE front end thumps in quick succession beginning on 1/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 DT. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I notice that secondary forecasters are out of luck today as NCEP reports FTP server issues since 18Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Nice! New Haven is a great area contrary to what many people might say who live around here. As long as people don't mind someone from CT posting in a NYC forum, I'd be happy to post some insight into what's happening with models and obs and such. I'll have my B.S. in meteorology in a few months so hopefully I can be of some use. This is a great board, I just joined in the summer of 14. Anyways, back to the topic, ECMWF is currently processing hour 12 from 12Z run. It's great to have your local input since that is an important part of our region that sometimes gets lost between this and the NE forum. If you have long term New Haven weather records, feel free to post them in any of our threads here. I often call friends in NH County to get updates on R/S line ground truth and summer thunderstorm events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Has anyone seen the 12z NAVGEM.... idkk if its a WXbell error or not but hr 18-54 are completely identical... Shows no storm for sunday lol.... Talk about glitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 UKMET looks pretty similar to 00Z to me. 10-15mm liquid equivalent would indicate about 4-6" of snow assuming it was all frozen. I can only see 12 hr intervals right now but the H85 0°C isotherm doesn't make it into NYC or LI. It did cut back on the 15-20mm amounts on central and eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Has anyone seen the 12z NAVGEM.... idkk if its a WXbell error or not but hr 18-54 are completely identical... Shows no storm for sunday lol.... Talk about glitch WXBell is not showing the 12Z NAVGEM very well, a lot of frames are missing and total QPF for Monday shows almost nothing for the NE. Also "Saturday, NCEP continues to suffer from major server issues affecting all models and data. " -WXBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro is colder 2-4 down to Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro is colder 2-4 down to Phl About time joined the party....how much for NNJ/NYC? 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Despite trends to lessen QPF on most of the 12Z suite, the 12Z ECMWF looks juicier with precip and comes in a few hours faster and is out of here a few hours quicker. I can only see individual qpf panels at the time up to 54 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 About time joined the party....how much for NNJ/NYC? 4-6"? Little area of 4-6 in ne jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro has been astriocous this winter. It finally caved to a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 ECMWF 850 0°C isotherm doesn't even make it into NYC or LI, seems a touch colder than the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It caved to the pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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