nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sv maps 4-6 for city and sw ctif euro comes in slightly colder will likely off totals from 1 to 3 inches to 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The GEM has increased the qpf on the 00Z run and pops the surface low a bit farther north than 12Z. 850 and 2mTs stay below 0 for the entire event for NYC north into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 The GEM has increased the qpf on the 00Z run and pops the surface low a bit farther north than 12Z. 850 and 2mTs stay below 0 for the entire event for NYC north into CT. How much qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 540 thickness runs from southern PA into CNJ, below NYC and about 15 mi south of LI at its closest point. SW is digging a bit farther S and hanging back a tad bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 How much qpf? Can't see total QPF on wsi, wxbell is slower to update ill let you know soon, about 10 min. But one from has .1-.25 and another has .25-.50 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Can't see total QPF on wsi, wxbell is slower to update ill let you know soon, about 10 min. But one from has .1-.25 and another has .25-.50 for NYC Cool, thanks...sounds juiced... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I meant to say "But one frame has .1-.25 and another has .25-.50 for NYC" used to typing "from" I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 0.3-0.4 liquid for southern half and western CT. 0.4-0.5 liquid for LHV, SWCT and all of NYC. Also most of northern and western LI. 0.5-0.6 liquid for southern LI. The 0.5 contour runs through central LI basically then cuts SW into Monmouth county, big increase in QPF overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The UKMET is still a relative dumpster fire for anyone wanting bigger snow, this event concerns me more for FZRA than anything, this event really lacks any strong east or southeast flow once its well underway to warm the surface, I'd be worried again about possible significant icing, snow may not be a big concern overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The UKMET is still a relative dumpster fire for anyone wanting bigger snow, this event concerns me more for FZRA than anything, this event really lacks any strong east or southeast flow once its well underway to warm the surface, I'd be worried again about possible significant icing, snow may not be a big concern overall How is it for C, the 12Z UKMET looked great for inland CT, has it changed much? Can you post some maps? WxBell takes like 3 extra hours to update UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GGEM weenie map. Shows a LI bullsye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 My gut says that is too far south, most of these types of storms this season has the main area of snow just north of the city. I am thinking the NAM, GFS solution is most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 My gut says that is too far south, most of these types of storms this season has the main area of snow just north of the city. I am thinking the NAM, GFS solution is most likely. Agree, I am very concerned about .50 inch of PL/ZR and ice storm warning criteria on Long Island, more than 6 inches of snow. I am also very concerned that Wednesday's event will get much colder on guidance and becomes 6-8 inches of snow for our area with .25 inch ice. This will cut either over or just SE of us, as a much weaker low. Bet on it. We'll see better trends tomorrow with classic 50/50 low. Do not worry about -PNA being completely bad for this. Comments.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here is to a good EURO run...just initializing.....lets go!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Shouldn't be any surprises. Possibly a tad wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Shouldn't be any surprises. Possibly a tad wetter. Yea...looks a tad wetter, and tad colder. Basically the same...but a slight improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro is slightly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro is slightly better All models have been trending slightly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks a tad wetter but warmer at 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 00z ECM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 00Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 6z nam is colder/wet....huge dump of snow for entire metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 6z nam is colder/wet....huge dump of snow for entire metro Moving toward the RGEM ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The NAM is .5 to .75 which looks right. The 0 line at 850 is just S of the Driscoll bridge and is colder than it was 0z . That should continue to correct S towards the Canadian. What people have been missing is SLP is passing to your S , so you cut the S off . The system is pos tilted so you can mute the warmth in the mid levels. The models have all been trending wetter and colder like . It is was the point I was making yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 2/5-2/6 85 may be a good analog for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 My gut says that is too far south, most of these types of storms this season has the main area of snow just north of the city. I am thinking the NAM, GFS solution is most likely. It probably is slightly, here is the 06Z RGEM, has some spots near NYC with 7-9 inches, the last 2 storms the RGEM and GGEM have had a slight southward bias beyond 36 hours so that may be happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 2/5-2/6 85 may be a good analog for this one 4.9" of snow at the NWS cooperative at Westbury (Nassau County) that day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 6z gfs colder / south also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Quite the screw zone on the 6z NAM in Nassau County; maybe just model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Quite the screw zone on the 6z NAM in Nassau County; maybe just model noise. When it shows that in Central PA, it usually verifies. Hopefully for you it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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