PackGrad05 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I knew areas in South Wake could get the shaft. I mentioned all day I thought warm temps and rain would be a problem cutting into totals... Northern Wake did fine, which I expected... But overall, not as high of totals. I never bought the high amounts forecasted by the "models" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Packgrad. You are special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Def not a bust here, but just under the 6-10 i was thinking. My parents back home north of Hickory got 6 to 8 inches. It just depended on where you were. The RGEM looks to have nailed the sharp southern edge. Mid-level Mixing is main reason this didn't perform. Had nothing to do with warm ground temps or boundary layer issues like the local met's and certain posters here were harping on. The lack of a closed upper low really hurt the chances for a historic storm. Here is 1 key: never throw out the word historic or major w/o some type of phasing potential. This storm was an open wave. It really helps to use the site below to study the big dogs to see what it takes for a real historical type of storm. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nice. It's upside down. Whatever. You bought that new GFS photo editor didn't you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Def can not consider this a bust. Burns said it best when he gave the analogy of setting expectaions. Most had written winter off. We got a suprize appitizer and tracked a great storm. Bring on the "T" storms N.C. weather is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nice. It's upside down. Whatever.dang! You must have got nailed your world is turned upside down! What did you finish with?I had 7, close to your call if 8. Too bad this was fast mover and the upper low died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I pity the meteorologists who have to try to forecast these things. What JBurns' son said is totally true. Honestly I think the nature of forecasts needs to change. Instead of saying your area is going to get 4" to 8" snow, the truth is in these marginal areas of the country the forecast should be 0" to 8" snow. Because that is the reality of it- marginal temps, warm noses, and a million other things conspire to generally kill snow potential down here. It's the "one time" none of those things breaks the storm that we get events like what caused Snowmageddon last year. Sadly, there's an actual cost to shutting down a city as big as Atlanta for a day or two. Not just the public cost but the private business cost as well. Nobody wants to shut down unless there is a 100% guarantee that something bad is going to happen, and 100% guarantee type storms are almost impossible to get here more than once every few years tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is NC. You don't shovel. You just wait a few hours. Nah, if your driveway is shady, you have to shovel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 You bought that new GFS photo editor didn't you. It was supposed to be upgraded last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 dang! You must have got nailed your world is turned upside down! What did you finish with? I had 7, close to your call if 8. Too bad this was fast mover and the upper low died. Why do upper lows always die as they move east? They hardly ever hold together as they get to central/eastern NC/SC. I got 1-2" but never more than 1" on the ground at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The Southeast does heat and humidity very well. Cold and snow... ummmmm...not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nah, if your driveway is shady, you have to shovel it.4 wheel drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The Southeast does heat and humidity very well. Cold and snow... ummmmm...not. it gets hotter in the ne and mid Atlantic compared to wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Why do upper lows always die as they move east? They hardly ever hold together as they get to central/eastern NC/SC. I got 1-2" but never more than 1" on the ground at a time.March 2009 and January 2002 would like to have a word with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Well I received 15%-18.75% of my forecasted totals so yeah, it's a bust. I don't see how people blame local forecasters though, blame the crappy models. The hires NAM nailed it for mby though. It had me in the 2" range with 1/2 to 1" accumulated on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Def not a bust here, but just under the 6-10 i was thinking. My parents back home north of Hickory got 6 to 8 inches. It just depended on where you were. The RGEM looks to have nailed the sharp southern edge. Mid-level Mixing is main reason this didn't perform. Had nothing to do with warm ground temps or boundary layer issues like the local met's and certain posters here were harping on. The lack of a closed upper low really hurt the chances for a historic storm. Here is 1 key: never throw out the word historic or major w/o some type of phasing potential. This storm was an open wave. It really helps to use the site below to study the big dogs to see what it takes for a real historical type of storm. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Agree HKY with the bolded. Best approach with warming aloft seems to be to lean toward the warmer model guidance and assume that warming will come in quicker and stronger than modeled. I ended up with 3 inches of mostly snow, some sleet, here north of Charlotte. Charlotte airport had 1.8. My call for there was 5-8...a big bust. NWS upped their call yesterday aftn to 8-10 for CLT. The TV futurecasts that I saw where actually quite good in showing the mixing well north into central Charlotte, but were ignored by most. On the precip side, the radar kind of collapsed in the GSP to CLT corridor. Whatever models where showing high totals there busted badly. I also made the post below last night regarding the precip pattern... My main takeaway thus far is this....in our previous winter storm (sleetfest on Feb 17), I made the point that the most reliable type of precipitation you can have (steady, non-spotchy precip on radar) comes from warm-advection / overrunning type precip. We had that in the Feb 17 storm. With today's storm, the good 850mb warm advection is focused from S GA through eastern SC, into eastern NC (image below shows that for 03z). The heavy precip we were suppose to get from GSP to CLT was more dynamically driven - strong upper level ascent. That type of precip is less reliable. Sometimes it is great, other times it is splotchy. All indications from model QPF output indicated that this dynamically driven precip would be strong...but that has not been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 4 wheel drive. Yupp and a John Deere loader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is my thoughts on 2015 Winter's last great chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance N CLT Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Agree HKY with the bolded. Best approach with warming aloft seems to be to lean toward the warmer model guidance and assume that warming will come in quicker and stronger than modeled. I ended up with 3 inches of mostly snow, some sleet, here north of Charlotte. Charlotte airport had 1.8. My call for there was 5-8...a big bust. NWS upped their call yesterday aftn to 8-10 for CLT. The TV futurecasts that I saw where actually quite good in showing the mixing well north into central Charlotte, but were ignored by most. On the precip side, the radar kind of collapsed in the GSP to CLT corridor. Whatever models where showing high totals there busted badly. I also made the post below last night regarding the precip pattern... Grit - regarding the precip and the radar imagery last night for the Charlotte Metro. Especially early on in the event the radar out of Greenville seemed very uniform in cover and pretty strong with a lot of yellows and even large swaths of reds. But the actual ground truth of the matter was that precipitation rates never really exceeded what I would call moderate at best. Can you offer an explanation of that for a novice like myself? Is it just that I'm using a poor radar site or was it just a misrepresentation due to a lot of the P-type being sleet? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It seems like the rain-snow line was just further north than predicted. I had some mixing overnight, which most said wouldn't happen. I still got 4" of accumulation, though, so I can't really complain. Good luck to everyone next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Some of you all need to visit this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45602-liberation-ledge/ Liberation Ledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It seems like the rain-snow line was just further north than predicted. I had some mixing overnight, which most said wouldn't happen. I still got 4" of accumulation, though, so I can't really complain. Good luck to everyone next year! Where are you in Chapel Hill? I'm in southern Durham county and we didn't get any mixing till after 2 AM (and even then, it was some sleet mixed with snow). Before that, it was all snow from beginning to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 March 2009 and January 2002 would like to have a word with you. The do of the time. We'll get the occasional exception, like you showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I live on the Wake/Johnston county line and we got a half inch of snow and a bunch of rain. Unbelievable how sharp the gradient was. Isn't this how the storms that are supposed to "manufacture" their cold air usually end up anyway? I can't believe how many models showed 10+ inches at my house yesterday morning and we got less than an inch. Can we trash all of the current models and start over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Next time I'm telling.my 2 friends I have left that it's going to rain, we live in the South and don't expect any snow even if well respected mets are calling it. Just tune into Glenn Burns and as long as he's showing the model if there is one that's halfway correct you'll find out what's going to happen. The clock is right at least 2 times in the day.. Ice for the weekend baby, I'm looking forward to it, the Indonesian model is showing a blockbuster. Edit, 1 friend left. I told them about the Ice and the line went dead.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Credit to Cheez for a good call in Atlanta, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Credit to Cheez for a good call in Atlanta, right? Yep Cheez was all over it... And very adamant about it too! Kudos to Cheez When Cheez chimes in better pay attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Next time I'm telling.my 2 friends I have left that it's going to rain, we live in the South and don't expect any snow even if well respected mets are calling it. Just tune into Glenn Burns and as long as he's showing the model if there is one that's halfway correct you'll find out what's going to happen. The clock is right at least 2 times in the day.. Ice for the weekend baby, I'm looking forward to it, the Indonesian model is showing a blockbuster. Edit, 1 friend left. I told them about the Ice and the line went dead.. Where does one find the Indonesian model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Credit to Cheez for a good call in Atlanta, right? Yep, he was on point. It's true that me and some fellow ATL posters were adamant that he was too pessimistic and he was putting too much weight in the NAM. As it turned out, he was correct and we were wrong. Oh, I ate my bowl of crow already. Tasted like disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yep Cheez was all over it... And very adamant about it too! Kudos to Cheez When Cheez chimes in better pay attention! Yep. The Cheez stands alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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