Feb 25th BUST Thread, I'll do it

[CarlHill]

Let's go, I can't be the only one perplexed by the horrible forecasts. I almost dumped $200 on a kerosene heater worried about roof collapses and extended power outages. So far, not even 2 inches in Pickens County SC, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I'm fixin to bust on the high end here.  Pushing 6 inches and still pouring under a deformation band.

[CarlHill]

I'm fixin to bust on the high end here.  Pushing 6 inches and still pouring under a deformation band.

That's great for you. but like I said, not even 2 inches here. I have several friends and family in Simpsonville, SC that don't have that much after buying kerosone heaters and generators listening to the local mets bunk. Someone should have seen this coming instead of pushing the hype. Charlie Gertz did a better job around here in the 80's without all of these fancy weather models that our local channels depend too much upon. I can see missing by a few inches, but seriously?????

[chapelhillwx]

That's great for you. but like I said, not even 2 inches here. I have several friends and family in Simpsonville, SC that don't have that much after buying kerosone heaters and generators listening to the local mets bunk. Someone should have seen this coming instead of pushing the hype. Charlie Gertz did a better job around here in the 80's without all of these fancy weather models that our local channels depend too much upon. I can see missing by a few inches, but seriously?????

Someone is always going to get dry slotted and someone is always going to mix. Meanwhile, people further NW are getting more than they were forecast to get. Put the pitchfork and torch away.

[skbl17]

In hindsight, our bust was pretty bad. A winter storm warning for some snow accumulations (which is still in effect lol, but for black ice), and I thought that having mostly IP mixed with a little SN at times would have helped out our accumulation totals, but no, the RS-line solidified too far north.

 

The bust hurts even more because (1) it's probably the last winter event and (2) everything closed and everyone was hyped to see snow. Didn't happen along I-20.

 

Absolutely terrible. Sums up the entire winter, to be honest.

[nchighcountrywx]

The level of bust is related to location as usual. It is disheartening that we have people in our communities in financial need and they had o make hard decisions based on calls for a high end snow or may lose a day of work they do not get compensated for all for a storm that was only a low advisory level event in their hometown.

My input on lessons learned on this storm is this:

1. Understand the difference between Snow on the Ground as depicted by some models as opposed to Total Snow Accumulation potential. I know it is confusing to many. The Hires Nam was throwing out huge potential accumulations but had the right call that Total Snow on the Ground in areas such as Charlotte would be minimal. When you see those 2 values line up due to surface level dewpoints being at least 30, you know you have yourself a real storm. The NAM Hires and other models showing little snow on the ground was trying to give a hint.

2. CISS-WISC has some neat excellent tools posted earlier this winter to simulate events such as this one. If you set the simulator up with Parms for this storm in the Charlotte area, you would see that it would not produce at the surface.

3. Nomagrams? I don't think I saw a single one posted.

4. Lack of Upper Level blocking to the north in th flow. Very little discussion on it.

5. Lack of an influx of cold air from the north? Hardly a word was typed about it, Instead, awesome rates were to rearrange the column and deliver at the surface. This never was in the realm of the January 2000 Carolina Crusher that had tremendous lift and cold air to tap nearby.

6. Disrespectul postings about professional mets such as Greg Fishel and his fine team over at WRAL is uncalled for. Opinions and analysis that differs from yours can be discussed in a professional manner without hurling personal attacks at individuals trying their best to make the right call. Believe me, some of them would like for it to snow as much as you do, but they work hard under a lot of pressure to make a balanced call.

7. Accuweather had a very reasonable call for the storm. No one bothered to discuss their call.

The list is long but those are starters and I am sure many have positive input on lessons learned from this event.

 

All in all, the modeling yesterday Wednesday by the 4km NAM Hires Actual Total Snow Depth on Ground that takes into account the surface profile was not off that much

 

Images courtesy of Dr Ryan Maue of Weatherbell

 

 

 

 

[Shawn]

The level of bust is related to location as usual. It is disheartening that we have people in our communities in financial need and they had o make hard decisions based on calls for a high end snow or may lose a day of work they do not get compensated for all for a storm that was only a low advisory level event in their hometown.

My input on lessons learned on this storm is this:

1. Understand the difference between Snow on the Ground as depicted by some models as opposed to Total Snow Accumulation potential. I know it is confusing to many. The Hires Nam was throwing out huge potential accumulations but had the right call that Total Snow on the Ground in areas such as Charlotte would be minimal. When you see those 2 values line up due to surface level dewpoints being at least 30, you know you have yourself a real storm. The NAM Hires and other models showing little snow on the ground was trying to give a hint.

2. CISS-WISC has some neat excellent tools posted earlier this winter to simulate events such as this one. If you set the simulator up with Parms for this storm in the Charlotte area, you would see that it would not produce at the surface.

3. Nomagrams? I don't think I saw a single one posted.

4. Lack of Upper Level blocking to the north in th flow. Very little discussion on it.

5. Lack of an influx of cold air from the north? Hardly a word was typed about it,

The list is long but those are starters and I am sure many have positive input on lessons learned from this event.

 

There was a good bit of raw sounding data posted of course.  A little talk about not having a -NAO or anything to block.  The cold air was spoken of as being weaker and marginal at best.

 

People seem to just pick and choose what they want to see in their areas. ;/  if it doesn't look good, it gets hush hush quickly... or contested.

[Jonathan]

Isn't there already a thread for this?

[No snow for you]

Looks like the 4k NAm nailed it. I think that was the one showing very low totals for I 85.

[burgertime]

The level of bust is related to location as usual. It is disheartening that we have people in our communities in financial need and they had o make hard decisions based on calls for a high end snow or may lose a day of work they do not get compensated for all for a storm that was only a low advisory level event in their hometown.

My input on lessons learned on this storm is this:

1. Understand the difference between Snow on the Ground as depicted by some models as opposed to Total Snow Accumulation potential. I know it is confusing to many. The Hires Nam was throwing out huge potential accumulations but had the right call that Total Snow on the Ground in areas such as Charlotte would be minimal. When you see those 2 values line up due to surface level dewpoints being at least 30, you know you have yourself a real storm. The NAM Hires and other models showing little snow on the ground was trying to give a hint.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As usual you're totally moving the goal posts. Our real problem was mixing plain and simple. When it did snow it stuck. I still have 2 inches on the ground and roads still have snow on them. By your logic yesterday it should ALL be melted. Had this been an all snow event we would have had 8 inches of snow depth. We had two good hours of snow and got 2 inches that are still around despite a lot of rain even mixing in. Many in AL, GA and WNC had temps of 34 and got 6 inches of snow depth. Hell in AL some ended up with 12 inches.  This was a big bust for many areas but it was due to not enough cooling aloft NOT surface temps and ground temps which was you're whole argument. 

[mackerel_sky]

I love big busts! Just not like this!

[calculus1]

I finished up with 3.5+ inches.  The NWS got it right for my area with their 3-7 inch forecast.

[calculus1]

Falling on his sword:

 

[calculus1]

Also taking the blame:

 

 

 

[calculus1]

The fact that the two mets above are willfully acknowledging their incorrect forecasts (for many in the path of the storm, but not all) makes me respect them all the more.  They're both classy, professional men, and I'll continue to pay attention to their forecasts in the future because they tend to get it right more than they get it wrong.

[nchighcountrywx]

Falling on his sword:

 

 

Robert is a good man and provides a very valuable subscription based service.

 

Make sure you support him with a full annual subscription.

 

Thanks for your valuable insight on the complexities of this storm Robert.   It is appreciated.

[nchighcountrywx]

As usual you're totally moving the goal posts. Our real problem was mixing plain and simple. When it did snow it stuck. I still have 2 inches on the ground and roads still have snow on them. By your logic yesterday it should ALL be melted. Had this been an all snow event we would have had 8 inches of snow depth. We had two good hours of snow and got 2 inches that are still around despite a lot of rain even mixing in. Many in AL, GA and WNC had temps of 34 and got 6 inches of snow depth. Hell in AL some ended up with 12 inches.  This was a big bust for many areas but it was due to not enough cooling aloft NOT surface temps and ground temps which was you're whole argument. 

 

I republished the maps I used yesterday to show there would not be significant accumulation on the surface in the immediate Charlotte area.

 

That is not moving the goal posts.

[burgertime]

I republished the maps I used yesterday to show there would not be significant accumulation on the surface in the immediate Charlotte area.

 

That is not moving the goal posts.

 

The whole premise of your argument was that while 8 inches worth of snow would fall, due to the outside air temperatures snow depth would be minimal due to melting on the ground. Then you come back claiming a victory that you were right when at max  3 inches fell yesterday and we we ended up with 1-2 inches of snow depth. The real issue was mixing and no where near the amount of snow fell the models were outputting. It had nothing to do with out side air temperature or melting. Had we not had mixing issues that map would have been completely wrong and we would have looked more like the snowfall map WRT to actual depth.  Like I said by your logic yesterday it should be nothing but wet grass outside with no accumulations. That is how you're moving the goal posts. You didn't say mixing would be the issue, your whole argument was snow that fell wouldn't accumulate...except it did we just didn't get enough snow falling like the models predicted. 

[lilj4425]

1.5 inches. Woohoo.

[broken024]

0 in waxhaw lol. Well...maybe a few specks.

[mackerel_sky]

1.5 inches. Woohoo.

You should be in movies!

[CentralNC]

It's hardly ever a good idea to forecast against climo.   A 15 inch storm is so rare in Raleigh/Charlotte that I would almost never forecast that.  Obviously it can happen.  I think the real big thing that everyone was blind to was that we had virtually no CAD in this storm whatsoever.   I had several hours of heavy snow and the temp barely made it to 32.  That told me right there that this was going to be a big bust for someone.   High rates can only do so much.  There has to be some influx of cold air so sustain accumulations imo.

[packbacker]

It's hardly ever a good idea to forecast against climo.   A 15 inch storm is so rare in Raleigh/Charlotte that I would almost never forecast that.  Obviously it can happen.  I think the real big thing that everyone was blind to was that we had virtually no CAD in this storm whatsoever.   I had several hours of heavy snow and the temp barely made it to 32.  That told me right there that this was going to be a big bust for someone.   High rates can only do so much.  There has to be some influx of cold air so sustain accumulations imo.

 

We were very lucky to finish the winter at climo, I guess you guys might be a little above.  But with no blocking we kept having HP's sliding out.   Obviously we can snow without blocking but there are huge busts for people because of marginal temps with sliding HP's.  Hopefully one of these years we will get blocking again.

[GaWx]

We were very lucky to finish the winter at climo, I guess you guys might be a little above. But with no blocking we kept having HP's sliding out. Obviously we can snow without blocking but there are huge busts for people because of marginal temps with sliding HP's. Hopefully one of these years we will get blocking again.

I still think that while beneficial on average to some extent, the -NAO is overrated for the SE US. Just 2 examples: 1/1988 and 3/1993. ATL major winter storm stats overall indicate the advantage for -NAO isn't big. Besides , RDU still got a major hit out of this one. Even ATL proper could have had a major wintry hit if the track of the low was as little as 50 miles further south/if they were just a couple of degrees colder. It really was close obviously.

**Edited

[salutethehill]

That's great for you. but like I said, not even 2 inches here. I have several friends and family in Simpsonville, SC that don't have that much after buying kerosone heaters and generators listening to the local mets bunk. Someone should have seen this coming instead of pushing the hype. Charlie Gertz did a better job around here in the 80's without all of these fancy weather models that our local channels depend too much upon. I can see missing by a few inches, but seriously?????

 

First world problems. 

 

Anyone who follows the forums during snow storms knows how difficult it is to accurately predict accumulations, type, etc.; certainly in upstate SC. The meteorologists we have are among the best in the business, and sometimes it just doesn't pan out...mainly in winter. It certainly doesn't justify all the boohooing, bellyaching, "I'm gonna kill your family" comments that are being thrown around on social media. 

 

And it's funny you mention Charlie Gertz...the biggest bust in my LIFE happened under his watch. I was mad...but I was also 10. 

[Cold Rain]

We were very lucky to finish the winter at climo, I guess you guys might be a little above. But with no blocking we kept having HP's sliding out. Obviously we can snow without blocking but there are huge busts for people because of marginal temps with sliding HP's. Hopefully one of these years we will get blocking again.

[Cold Rain]

Nice. It's upside down. Whatever.

[audioguy3107]

ame="GaWx" post="3437734" timestamp="1424673754"]

 Even ATL proper could have had a major wintry hit if the track of the low was as little as 50 miles further south/if they were just a couple if degrees colder. It really was close obviously.

**Edited

 

For all the Georgia posters and Georgia people new to this board.....this is really the take home message for us in the Atlanta area.....it was oh so close, but that's the way our climo goes down here when there is a winter storm.  We all get sucked in based on possibilities (me included) and there's nothing wrong with that as long as you understand that probably about 95% (maybe even higher) of the time we're going to be on the short end of the stick.  I've lived here my whole life and to get a really good "snowy" winter storm, you need the players on the models to track just about perfectly along with a colder arctic airmass.  These marginal setups temperature wise pretty much NEVER work here unless you're under one of those bowling ball upper level systems. 

 

Aside from that, I also think that the ever so gradual model shifting got us all sucked in as well.  Usually, we always see the same thing, the models make a major NW or N shift 48 to 96 hrs. out which make us throw in the towel barring a major shift back south and move on the next system.  This time, there really wasn't any major shift.....we got nickel and dimed gradually over the last 3 & 1/2 days, so that by the time Wednesday rolled around, it was pretty obvious that we would have to have a major bust on the SNOWY side of things for Atlanta proper to get a good snow.  I think that contributed to most of us getting sucked in since we're used to that one big EURO run that ends all our chanced.  Didn't happen this time.

 

All that being said, if you look at FFC's snowfall map, it was still a really good hit for most in NW Georgia and the mountains, so it was pretty close, but close (almost) never gets it done for Atlanta proper.

 

- Buck

[packbacker]

Nice. It's upside down. Whatever.

 

 You missed out by like 10 miles, what a crazy event.  To be honest I am a little jealous, I have paste bomb to shovel today.   One of these years we are going to jackpot a winter storm instead of getting fringed.  Next year is our year, -NAO FTW...

[WidreMann]

You missed out by like 10 miles, what a crazy event.  To be honest I am a little jealous, I have paste bomb to shovel today.   One of these years we are going to jackpot a winter storm instead of getting fringed.  Next year is our year, -NAO FTW...

This is NC. You don't shovel. You just wait a few hours.