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2/26 Fluffer, Light Snow Event


Baroclinic Zone

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There's a N stream disturbance too. I think at least light snow/snow showers pike south..dustings to an inch 

HRRR shows hours and hours of 5-10 dBZ returns all the way up to the MA and VT/NH borders, but it has trouble reaching the ground north of CT?

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What does it show?

 

Did not look, I just laugh each time its mentioned because every time i look at it or use it its been useless as far as what it shows, For instance yesterdays event it showed on several runs that the only the Cape and extreme DE Maine would see any accumulating snow with the rest of the coast back west seeing nothing, The Mid Coast east had 6-12" up here

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Did not look, I just laugh each time its mentioned because every time i look at it or use it its been useless as far as what it shows, For instance yesterdays event it showed on several runs that the only the Cape and extreme DE Maine would see any accumulating snow with the rest of the coast back west seeing nothing, The Mid Coast east had 6-12" up here

 

I know it's done well on some events, but I'm not the biggest fan of that model in synoptic events unless it's really nailing things at the moment. When it's at odds with the GFS and EC..chances are it may not be right. 

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I know it's done well on some events, but I'm not the biggest fan of that model in synoptic events unless it's really nailing things at the moment. When it's at odds with the GFS and EC..chances are it may not be right. 

 

Maybe it does in some areas, I have found it most of the time to be off and is erratic from hr by hr at times up here, I actually find the RAP more useful then the HRRR

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Can someone please explain this insanity this time.  Whether it snows or not - 

 

For the 50th time in my winter weather career, at the beginning of a storm, the precip. shield heads for Eastern SNE, hits Eastern CT and goes "OH!  Ya know what, Rhode Island Sucks!  Screw you guys, we'll go round the south and north and may even fill in from the East into the Mass. coast before filling in over that state."  

 

Now is this just because the Radar we use for this region is located in Taunton and it picks it up weird as like a RI Shield?  Or....  

 

Cause this storm right now over the past 2 hours is a PERFECT Text Book example.  

 

post-2792-0-38258000-1424963896_thumb.pn

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I know it's done well on some events, but I'm not the biggest fan of that model in synoptic events unless it's really nailing things at the moment. When it's at odds with the GFS and EC..chances are it may not be right. 

 

Yet another model geared towards convection.

 

There is something comforting about 80 km resolution that can nail cyclogenesis.

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That's just a radar idiosyncrasy.  You'll note that even when that doesn't happen, there's always a clear sky donut right at the radar site.

 

Here's a good explanation:

 

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2013/01/26/when-the-donut-hole-gets-smaller-its-about-to-snow/

 

By the way, its filled in now, and its still not reaching the ground.

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Yet another model geared towards convection.

 

There is something comforting about 80 km resolution that can nail cyclogenesis.

 

As the way modeling is right now, there definitely is a sweet spot in terms of resolution modeling and cyclogenesis. It definitely isn't 3KM horizontal resolution.

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