Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Discuss. Models are bringing a light snow event into the area with a general 1-3"+ type storm, similar to the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 15z SREF 12h snow probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 BOX map fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 And the 18z 4km NAM. So right now it just looks like a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 And the 18z 4km NAM. ptot26.gif So right now it just looks like a light event. Nice nudge north from 12z still. One more 10-20 mile tick northward and we basically have a repeat of last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice nudge north from 12z still. One more 10-20 mile tick northward and we basically have a repeat of last night Yeah I think this could look pretty damn similar to last night.... 2" pushes me over 100".... Would be nice to get there with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's slowly nudged N which is nice. I don't really have any expectations other than I think it snows. Maybe 1-3" from say PVD/GHG down to ACK/CHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 4k NAM is like 4-6" for the Cape, assuming > 10:1 ratios. The 4K has been pretty good lately, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's slowly nudged N which is nice. I don't really have any expectations other than I think it snows. Maybe 1-3" from say PVD/GHG down to ACK/CHH Yeah, no expectations right now other than 1-2"..while keeping a close eye on tonights runs in hope of increasing that to 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Let's give BOS another inch, creep to that record, put next week in play to break it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 From reading the SE threads the models keep moving the low NW. Not enough time for any major shifts but enough to give a few inches to SE Mass with another bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 BOX AFD. Making note of the more robust Hires models. .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY... THERE IS CLUSTERING AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY A SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SNOW BUT THIS IS WINTER 2015 AND WE HAVE A FEW FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. MODELS INDICATE DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH NEAR SATURATION AND WEAK OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ASSOCD WITH MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IS QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ECMWF AND SREF BRING 0.25" TO ACK WITH 0.10" TO FAR SE MA WHILE NAM IS JUST A BIT LESS. GFS/GGEM ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH QPF. WE HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUM ARE LIKELY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE. USED A BLEND OF NAM/SREF/ECMWF/GFS QPF TO DERIVE SNOW ACCUM WHICH RESULTS IN 1-2 INCHES FOR CAPE COD AND UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ACK. A COATING TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUM TO THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIRESWRF WHICH BRINGS 0.25" TO THE CAPE COD CANAL AND 0.50" TO ACK. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS NOW BUT IT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUM AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S CAPE/ISLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 HRRR says we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 HRRR says we snow after yesterdays total fail have to take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 after yesterdays total fail have to take the underSouthern stream, copious moisture.. No blocking, winter 2015.. It may be coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is a pretty storm, to think what could have been. It would really need to flex some muscle to do much in the circumstances though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 HRRR says we snow When I load that 22z HRRR on the NCEP site, it shows the precip only making it up to southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 When I load that 22z HRRR on the NCEP site, it shows the precip only making it up to southern NJ.flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Radar looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 after yesterdays total fail have to take the under That's all virga, total precip on the model is 0.00" for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 That's all virga, total precip on the model is 0.00" for all of SNE. That's what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 And the 18z 4km NAM. ptot26.gif So right now it just looks like a light event. Yeah maybe a dusting to 2" or so...maybe a spot 3" at the high elevations. Then an area of a dusting to 2" also along the SNE SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 At 12z, the 00z NAM shows the low 3mb stronger than 18z, and the precip shield more compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 At 18z the precip has ticked slightly se, so still mainly a cape and SE MA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The .1 line is back to about me now on this run, that's a little NW of the earlier run, but the trace amounts tucked SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I see the southern stream shortwave is further north and west than it should be at this time. It is on a track to the northeast and should be south of SNE by 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 IMO all models show the potential for a sneaky band on the NW side, somewhere in Bristol and Plymouth counties that eventually drops south and out. Narrow, but it could produce for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Based on radar and upstream obs..how does light snow not at least make it to the Pike today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Based on radar and upstream obs..how does light snow not at least make it to the Pike today?I know, looks good, right? Well see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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