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March 2015 General disco


snowstormcanuck

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How the heck are you going to be warmer than us down here tomorrow? Dang lakes, good for nothing on this side of the state. :lol:

Already well into the 30's here, can we crack 50 today? :sun:

ssw/sw winds downslope here from the highlands of n Wisconsin. FTW!

The instant they turn back off superior, back into the freezer.

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today's snow depth map!  

between 40-50" on the ground this morning in my area but with a high of 44 today and 51 tomorrow, the melt is underway, and with 10-14" of liquid in the snow here, the waterfalls and streams should be amazing. still tho, it will take weeks to lose the snow.

here's my fear!  The warm weather and strong winds will break up and sink the thin ice on Lake Superior and when Winter does make a return later in the month, I'm going to get a 2' dumping. :D

 

attachicon.gifssm_depth.2015030913.0.600.450._13142.4982._12954.5233.dem.shading.giklm.m.1.0.0.1.0.0.png

 

Oh you're not done there pal!!! :mapsnow:

 

 

How the heck are you going to be warmer than us down here tomorrow? Dang lakes, good for nothing on this side of the state. :lol:

Already well into the 30's here, can we crack 50 today? :sun:

ssw/sw winds downslope here from the highlands of n Wisconsin. FTW!

The instant they turn back off superior, back into the freezer.

Actually happened several times when I was at MTU.  Keweenaw would be warmer than Detroit area with some good S/SW winds in spring.  Then later in the day the lake would shift the wind just enough and it was all over for that day!

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925mb temps are already 7-8C. Should top out in the mid-upper 50's today. GFS fail.

 

What was the MOS and 2m output showing there?  I ask because this was a well known bias with the prior GFS (especially underdoing 2m temps) and it would be unfortunate if no progress was made on this shortcoming.

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Wonder if we will tag 60 at some point this week.  Never really get into the good S/SW low level flow here as some previous model runs had been hinting at.  850 mb temps would support 60s with good mixing but it looks like there may not be good mixing, so I'm kinda skeptical but it's easy to overachieve with sun at this time of year.  Haven't had a 60 degree day since November 30.

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What was the MOS and 2m output showing there?  I ask because this was a well known bias with the prior GFS (especially underdoing 2m temps) and it would be unfortunate if no progress was made on this shortcoming.

MOS output has been bad around here.  Had a high of 44 today for rochester.  They should blow by that

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What was the MOS and 2m output showing there? I ask because this was a well known bias with the prior GFS (especially underdoing 2m temps) and it would be unfortunate if no progress was made on this shortcoming.

Mav started in the mid-upper 40's a couple days ago. Looks like it peaked at 51 on today's 6z. 2m was ugly, I stopped looking at it but last I looked it was in the 30's. I was actually discussing this with someone at work the other day. In short, the cold bias is still alive.

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12z ECMWF 2m temps would support highs of 60F or a little better here on Wednesday and Thursday.  00z run was noticeably cooler for Thursday though so we'll see.  I'd be interested in what ECMWF MOS has but finding bigfoot is probably easier as I don't think it's available even on paysites (someone can correct me if I'm wrong).

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