michsnowfreak Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Today marks two weeks of straight of no measurable precip at DTW, two weeks and counting. I have no complaints about March as it didnt just simply have snow on the ground the first two weeks, i had that surreal ice-sheened snow that even snow haters were raving over. Also unlike to our west, we have no drought worries whatsoever. In fact snowmelt has left many fields with standing water. THAT said...I cannot recall a more boring stretch of weather this time of year. Im sure its happened, but this is beyond boring for the weather enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 they were visible here when I got up this morning at 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I think we're going to head out around 10 tonight and see what we can see before cloud cover becomes prohibitive. The SWPC model seems to indicate that that would be futile since the high probs of auroral viewing don't move in until after 06z, but I'm listening to their briefing from 16z now and they seem to just be generally uncertain about everything. Also, despite their model showing the view line only scraping the northern U.S., they mention the potential for auroral viewing as far south as the central U.S., so I'm not sure what the discrepancy is, or if I'm not interpreting the model output correctly. I just finished listening to the rest of this morning's press conference. Apparently the "view line" is the line at which the auroral activity stops directly overhead, but aurorae are visible for "several hundred to perhaps 1000 km" south of it. So I was in fact misinterpreting the model output. Their model has a flare-up between 06z and 07z, and then the best action is after that leading right into sunrise. So now we just need to watch clouds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Aurora have been spotted in the UK, Scandanavia, and the Netherlands tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Today marks two weeks of straight of no measurable precip at DTW, two weeks and counting. I have no complaints about March as it didnt just simply have snow on the ground the first two weeks, i had that surreal ice-sheened snow that even snow haters were raving over. Also unlike to our west, we have no drought worries whatsoever. In fact snowmelt has left many fields with standing water. THAT said...I cannot recall a more boring stretch of weather this time of year. Im sure its happened, but this is beyond boring for the weather enthusiast. Same here, everything's sodden. Likely since we've been cloudier/cooler than areas further west. But the drought concerns are more on a going forward basis, since we've been locked into a dry pattern for a good while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The Bz has crept back up to around -6 compared to hovering in the -17 to -20 range most of the day. Bt has dropped as well. Maybe only temporary, but could be a sign the auroras are crapping out a bit. Will probably head out for awhile and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The Bz has crept back up to around -6 compared to hovering in the -17 to -20 range most of the day. Bt has dropped as well. Maybe only temporary, but could be a sign the auroras are crapping out a bit. Will probably head out for awhile and see what happens. Do you have a moment to explain what the Bz and Bt are? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Today marks two weeks of straight of no measurable precip at DTW, two weeks and counting. I have no complaints about March as it didnt just simply have snow on the ground the first two weeks, i had that surreal ice-sheened snow that even snow haters were raving over. Also unlike to our west, we have no drought worries whatsoever. In fact snowmelt has left many fields with standing water. THAT said...I cannot recall a more boring stretch of weather this time of year. Im sure its happened, but this is beyond boring for the weather enthusiast. I've been posting some stats about the dry weather in the Chicago record watch thread but haven't checked Detroit. Do you happen to know what the record is for dry stretches at this time of year or all-time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Do you have a moment to explain what the Bz and Bt are? Thanks! Bt is a good measure of the strength of the magnetic field. So a Bt above 15 is usually pretty good. Above 20-25 even better. The Bz is basically a measure of where the magnetic field is. We want to see the Bz south in our latitudes. A Bz less than -10 is usually pretty decent, but down to -20 like earlier that's real good. The Bz can never exceed the Bt, as the Bt is a measure of the total magnetic field strength. EDIT: Here's a nice site to see the latest parameters. Updates every minute or two. http://www.spacew.com/plots.php EDIT2: Also the Kp index is sort of helpful. We usually want to see the Kp index around 7 for us to see anything this far south. A 6 would do okay for MN and WI. Earlier today the Kp was 8-9, which is extremely strong/rare, and probably meant we had auroras pretty far south during the day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Bt is a good measure of the strength of the magnetic field. So a Bt above 15 is usually pretty good. Above 20-25 even better. The Bz is basically a measure of where the magnetic field is. We want to see the Bz south in our latitudes. A Bz less than -10 is usually pretty decent, but down to -20 like earlier that's real good. The Bz can never exceed the Bt, as the Bt is a measure of the total magnetic field strength. EDIT: Here's a nice site to see the latest parameters. Updates every minute or two. http://www.spacew.com/plots.php EDIT2: Also the Kp index is sort of helpful. We usually want to see the Kp index around 7 for us to see anything this far south. A 6 would do okay for MN and WI. Earlier today the Kp was 8-9, which is extremely strong/rare, and probably meant we had auroras pretty far south during the day today. Thanks! So from what I see now, the Kp is an 8 (came back up from 7 earlier), but the Bt and Bz are both becoming less favorable. So which index "wins"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Several of the regional 00z RAOBs had extreme mid level dry air...like dewpoints near or less than -60C with RH of 1%. Very impressive stuff...and not even with a real arctic airmass. Case in point. You know it's dry when the dewpoint trace runs off the skew-T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 light show starting here... very subtle right now but flares up nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Temperature really tanked after sunset tonight. I've only seen the Aurora here really good twice. Maybe five other times viewing was muted out by clouds or the amount of light pollution was limiting the amount of color showing in the sky. I did see it once over Lake Superior at the western end and it was out of this world! The red was so bright the water looked like wine or blood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Northern Lights are out here in Cleveland. I went down to Lake Erie and there was a subtle green strip oscillating just above the lake's horizon. Pretty impressive to see them this far south and we lucked out having a crisp clear night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The Bz is a +2.9 now Regardless, I think we're headed up to the Lake Michigan shore pretty soon here. Hearing reports of faint aurorae from the suburbs of Colmbus and from central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 quite the show tonight, really bright. I'm going to bed however, I'm sleepy. I should wake up early enough to see the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Speaking of dry weather...MSP is currently on pace for the 2nd driest Jan-Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Thanks! So from what I see now, the Kp is an 8 (came back up from 7 earlier), but the Bt and Bz are both becoming less favorable. So which index "wins"? To me it seems the Kp lags behind a bit and seems to be some sort of an average parameter over the course of the last hour or two. That's why if there's a storm going on it's best to pay attention to the Bt and Bz values, as they're updated every minute or two. The satellites that measure those are very far out in space, and I've heard there's about a half hour delay between when the Bt/Bz values change, and when that change is seen here on Earth. Depends on the velocity of the charged particles, which varies depending on the CME. I got some great shots tonight. Shot a time lapse for over an hour. Gonna take quite awhile to process all these RAW files. Gonna try to get a pic up here in the near future. Probably won't compile time lapse till tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Temperature really tanked after sunset tonight. I've only seen the Aurora here really good twice. Maybe five other times viewing was muted out by clouds or the amount of light pollution was limiting the amount of color showing in the sky. I did see it once over Lake Superior at the western end and it was out of this world! The red was so bright the water looked like wine or blood! I forgot my damn hat, so I was freezing out there tonight. Was well worth it though. Hell of a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I forgot my damn hat, so I was freezing out there tonight. Was well worth it though. Hell of a show. Lot of reports coming in from southern WI. Many people saying they were low on the horizon. I have not noticed them here yet. Best place around here to view them is over the lake where it's the darkest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 just got back from watching the aurora show in Wellington County, ON. Totally in shock that was incredible to witness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Speaking of dry weather...MSP is currently on pace for the 2nd driest Jan-Mar. 0.82". Yeah, that's dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 just got back from watching the aurora show in Wellington County, ON. Totally in shock that was incredible to witness. Nothing visible as far as I can tell here in the middle of Middlesex Co. My apt. faces north so I was checking the window from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Completely skipped viewing the 18z GFS. That's how I know winter is at an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nothing visible as far as I can tell here in the middle of Middlesex Co. My apt. faces north so I was checking the window from time to time. it peaked about 10pm and lasted mabye 10 minutes. started out a large white halo to the north around 930, got higher, turned green, danced around, then retreated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Shot from tonight southwest of town. Got lucky and found a nice little farm field canal filled with water, so made for a nice reflection of the sky lit up by the auroras. Time lapse should (hopefully) be badass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Nice photo, Cyclone. Couldn't see anything down here near Indy when I went out earlier this evening. Came back to surf the web and remembered that today March 18th is the 90th anniversary of the TriState tornado. Severe season will probably start with a bang when the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 ^Thanks Indy. One more from tonight for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Excellent photos Joel! First your 6" snow drought, now your aurora drought... you're knockin' em' down now! And I also have to say thank you for explaining some stuff to me tonight! We went out to Beverly Shores and saw a faint aurora north over Lake Michigan. I had never seen one with the naked eye, so I was thrilled, even though in reality it wasn't much. A few folks with me had professional cameras and took some great photos that we could see of the green aurora, the stars above, Chicago in the distance, and multi-story ice dunes along the shore, all in the same shot. Hopefully I can share some with you guys tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Today marks two weeks of straight of no measurable precip at DTW, two weeks and counting. I have no complaints about March as it didnt just simply have snow on the ground the first two weeks, i had that surreal ice-sheened snow that even snow haters were raving over. Also unlike to our west, we have no drought worries whatsoever. In fact snowmelt has left many fields with standing water. THAT said...I cannot recall a more boring stretch of weather this time of year. Im sure its happened, but this is beyond boring for the weather enthusiast. I disagree as we have had a >2" departure for precip since the beginning of the year. While we don't have immediate affects due to this March melt. We do have drought worries here too. I guess I see it differently as I live surrounded by farms, orchards and lakes as opposed to manicured lawn 1/4 acre lots. I will agree that right now we are 'ok' but this departure does mean a lot if it continues and grows in April! Hopefully it will not and storms systems will begin soon to hit this area soon but I would not be surprised to see some parts of MI in Yellow the April Drought Report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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