hawkeye_wx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Temps across parts of Iowa are struggling a bit because of the thick cirrus shield. Waterloo was supposed to reach the upper 60s, but they are still stuck on 59. Cedar Rapids is stuck in the low 60s after hitting 57 by 11am. The sun has only briefly peeked out here a few times over the last few hours. This is the first windy day we've had during the current warm stretch. Hopefully, it'll really help dry out the soil so I can walk through the yard without squishing and getting mud all over my shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 We peaked at 66 awhile ago, and with thicker cirrus overhead that coud be it. Still could eek out another degree or two with the continuing WAA regime, and possible thin spots moving over from time to time. We won't have issues with clouds tomorrow, and with the warmer start, very warm thermal profiles, and some compressional heating with the incoming surface front I'm still feeling confident about our first 80 degree day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 There it is...the first 60 at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Wow, McCook Nebraska is at 86/13 for 6% humidity lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 There it is...the first 60 at LAF. Only squeezed out 56° over here, but I'm not complaining. Tomorrow looks to be A+, but probably won't make 70° this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Pretty impressive after the severe cold over many of these areas just a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 68 here and over performing with light winds and very soggy ground. 73 forecast for tomorrow, hoping for closer to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Wow, McCook Nebraska is at 86/13 for 6% humidity lol. Wonder if a tornado could form with those surface conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Wonder if a tornado could form with those surface conditions. Probably excellent dust devil weather lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Point for QC has been bumped a few more degrees. Now at 78 for tomorrow. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 18z NAM forecast sounding for the QC at 21z tomorrow. Shows ridiculously shallow mixing, with surface dews in the mid to upper 40s lol. Yeah, that's not gonna happen. Any moisture that advects in later tonight, or early tomorrow will be very shallow, as the source region just off the surface is from the very dry central Plains. We should easily mix out the surface layer, and tap into that large wedge of dry/warm air above 900mb. The low-level thermal profile will be considerably more slanted in the other direction compared to what's shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 20C for Hawkeye tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 62 at LAF. That should just about do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Wow, McCook Nebraska is at 86/13 for 6% humidity lol. It's 87/5 at McCook now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Lots of 80s in SD/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 18z NAM forecast sounding for the QC at 21z tomorrow. Shows ridiculously shallow mixing, with surface dews in the mid to upper 40s lol. Yeah, that's not gonna happen. Any moisture that advects in later tonight, or early tomorrow will be very shallow, as the source region just off the surface is from the very dry central Plains. We should easily mix out the surface layer, and tap into that large wedge of dry/warm air above 900mb. The low-level thermal profile will be considerably more slanted in the other direction compared to what's shown here. You know, it is 7.5C at 700mb (10,000 ft above sea level) right now in Wyoming. That could be almost 37.5C if compressed to sea level! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 We're cooking now. Up to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 We're cooking now. Up to 70.Bah! You beat me to it! This is fantastic.3ft of shoreline has opened up on the lake. Bald eagles soaring overhead and 4 turkeys ran thru the yard a bit ago. Wildlife is returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 temp_t72m_f24.png Haha, don't worry I was looking at that earlier too lol. Tip of the hat to Thundersnow. MLI ended up topping out at 69. Their low this morning was 26, so a nice 43 degree rise. Tomorrow morning's temp should start out a good 11-14 degrees warmer than today. DVN mentioned lighter surface winds than today in the latest disco, but from what I've seen on the models the winds will be nearly identical to today for the DVN cwa. The main core of surface winds (which was placed out in central Iowa today) will be a bit weaker tomorrow, but that won't matter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 temp_t72m_f24.png Honestly, it doesn't look that unreasonable. I'm having a hard time not seeing much of NE and W IA in the mid-upper 80's with the warm spots near 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Haha, don't worry I was looking at that earlier too lol. Tip of the hat to Thundersnow. MLI ended up topping out at 69. Their low this morning was 26, so a nice 43 degree rise. Tomorrow morning's temp should start out a good 11-14 degrees warmer than today. DVN mentioned lighter surface winds than today in the latest disco, but from what I've seen on the models the winds will be nearly identical to today for the DVN cwa. The main core of surface winds (which was placed out in central Iowa today) will be a bit weaker tomorrow, but that won't matter here. lol I was kinda embarrassed to post it, but I think it may be on the right track as far as the widespread 80s in IA and those readings possibly making it into IL. I basically agree with all of your thoughts for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Honestly, it doesn't look that unreasonable. I'm having a hard time not seeing much of NE and W IA in the mid-upper 80's with the warm spots near 90. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 snow depth season coming to an impressive early end this year. Even MQT seems impressed by it: TEMPSWILL LIKELY END UP AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AND ON THEDAYS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MELT SOME SNOW.LATEST SNOW DEPTHS ARE LOWEST OVER THE SCENTRAL WITH A TRACE TO NOSNOW AT MENOMINEE AND HIGHEST AT AROUND 40 INCHES OVER THE HIGHERTERRAIN NW OF NEGAUNEE AND ALSO IN THE GRAND MARAIS AREA. AROUND 2FEET OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND OTHER AREASOF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. 5 TO 12 INCHES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROMCRYSTAL FALLS TO MICHIGAMME AND FROM ESCANABA TO MANISTIQUE.SHORELINE AREAS HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS SNOW THAN JUST INLAND. not a ton of melt today and depth is hanging around 30" due to a hard freeze up last night. Looks like the Eastern UP will be the last areas of snow in a few weeks. I'm predicting mine gone by mid April. Interesting tho, I went into Marquette today and by the shore, lots of grass in yards but mainly a few inches left. Huge difference up my way. I don't mind the zonal flow, as it keeps things pretty mild, but some "weather" would be nice too. A little jealous of the temps in s part of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Ignoring the little bit of an inversion that has developed with the onset of nocturnal cooling, OAX mixed to around 800 mb. TOP mixed to around 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Most recent backup RUC run actually has a pocket of 90 degrees around Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Holy ( c)rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 We peaked at 64 thanks to the thickest band of clouds parking over us during the prime heating hours. The first flock of blackbirds arrived today, including a robin, red-winged blackbirds, grackles, and starlings. All the noises coming from those birds sure make it sound like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Ignoring the little bit of an inversion that has developed with the onset of nocturnal cooling, OAX mixed to around 800 mb. TOP mixed to around 850 mb. OAX.gif TOP.gif Big difference between those actual soundings and what the models forecast, as we expected. Here's what the 12z NAM forecast at those two sites. Did a horrific job on BL mixing. OAX area TOP area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Holy ( c)rap rap.png Can't wait to watch the temp at SUX and surrounding areas skyrocket tomorrow. That corridor from Sioux City back to around Broken Bow look to be in the max area of heating potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.