Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 81 here, 82 MLI, 85 DSM, and 91 at SUX Monday. Bank it. 82 would tie the record for the day at MLI (set in 1945 and 2012). Record for Des Moines is 84 in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Earliest 85 degree reading at Des Moines is March 21 (1938 and 1907). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 82 would be very close to the record for the day at MLI, which is 81 (1945 and 2012). Record for Des Moines is 84 in 2012. Gonna be fun to watch. The only negative I see at this point is early morning temps could be starting out in the upper 30s in spots, so it may take awhile to achieve the beneficial mixing that cashes in on those robust H8 temps. I see no reason why we can't mix up to at least the 850mb layer despite what the forecast soundings show. If the forecast soundings end up being correct I'd love to know what prevented the mixing layer from reaching that layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Gonna be fun to watch. The only negative I see at this point is early morning temps could be starting out in the upper 30s in spots, so it may take awhile to achieve the beneficial mixing that cashes in on those robust H8 temps. I see no reason why we can't mix up to at least the 850mb layer despite what the forecast soundings show. If the forecast soundings end up being correct I'd love to know what prevented the mixing layer from reaching that layer. Yeah gonna be a big diurnal swing. I'm rooting for the records to be broken...would be cool to see Morch daily records go down out there...of course much shorter duration this time. I edited my post about the records for March 16 as the original version was incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 This is going to be a problem... 4km NAM does show clearing later this afternoon however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 RAP and HRRR pretty much show what all out mixing would look like....somehow we manage lower 80's with a fairly thick cirrus deck overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 RAP and HRRR pretty much show what all out mixing would look like....somehow we manage lower 80's with a fairly thick cirrus deck overhead. Clouds and/or rising dewpoints are gonna keep temps in check today. Should see things clear up this afternoon but might be too late. Still can't complain about the run we're having. Hope the GFS and its -20C 850mb temps for late next week are wrong. Gonna be tough to go back to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Clouds and wind...hurricane winds to be exact... Upper 40Fs all week after Mon... That should put all these plants on hold. My lilacs are swelling..showing lots of green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Point for here/QC has been bumped to 76 for tomorrow. DSM and SUX points both at 82. Still think SUX (or some nearby site) has a legit shot at a 90 burger. MLI shot up from 29 to 53 degrees between 8 and 10am obs. That's extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Omaha is mentioning possible mid to upper 80s in their latest disco. DVN has upped CR to 77, so 80 is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Best 850s AOA 20C will line up along the 20 corridor in IA tomorrow at max heating. So from around Waterloo back through Storm Lake, and to the Sioux City (SUX) area look to get maxed out. For specific site forecast temps I'm sticking with 81 here, 82 at MLI and CID, 85 at DSM, 87 ALO, 91 at Storm Lake (SLB) and also at SUX. Probably upper 80s for the Omaha area. 4km NAM 850s at max heating tomorrow. Pretty impressive for mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 We've lost our sun late this morning due to a shield of thick cirrus spilling down from the nw. The Euro also shows some cirrus spilling down over the northeast half of Iowa and northern Illinois on Monday. That could hold us back by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Here are the top 10 850 mb temperatures at DVN and ILX in the month of March. The period of record is much longer for ILX as the preceding PIA/RAN stations are all grouped together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 12z NAM/GFS forecast 850 mb temperatures for DVN and ILX from 00z Mon to 00z Tue DVN: GFS @ 00z Mon: 11.6C NAM @ 00z Mon: 14.8C GFS @ 12z Mon: 14.5C NAM @ 12z Mon: 13.4C GFS @ 00z Tue: 16.0C NAM @ 00z Tue: 18.1C ILX: GFS @ 00z Mon: 13.9C NAM @ 00z Mon: 14.3C GFS @ 12z Mon: 13.7C NAM @ 12z Mon: 12.1C GFS @ 00z Tue: 16.0C NAM @ 00z Tue: 16.8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 12z NAM/GFS forecast 850 mb temperatures for DVN and ILX from 00z Mon to 00z Tue DVN: GFS @ 00z Mon: 11.6C NAM @ 00z Mon: 14.8C GFS @ 12z Mon: 14.5C NAM @ 12z Mon: 13.4C GFS @ 00z Tue: 16.0C NAM @ 00z Tue: 18.1C ILX: GFS @ 00z Mon: 13.9C NAM @ 00z Mon: 14.3C GFS @ 12z Mon: 13.7C NAM @ 12z Mon: 12.1C GFS @ 00z Tue: 16.0C NAM @ 00z Tue: 16.8C Looks like DVN has a good chance to set a new 850 temp max for March. 00z Euro is going to bust pretty hard on temps out in the Plains today. It had max temps in the mid 70s for most of SD, NE, and northwest IA. Temps already approaching that 4-5hrs before max heating. RAP and HRRR much more in line with reality, and shows mid 80s out there later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Looks like DVN has a good chance to set a new 850 temp max for March. 00z Euro is going to bust pretty hard on temps out in the Plains today. It had max temps in the mid 70s for most of SD, NE, and northwest IA. Temps already approaching that 4-5hrs before max heating. RAP and HRRR much more in line with reality, and shows mid 80s out there later today. Looking forward to seeing what the RAP and HRRR spit out for tomorrow. Seems like they sometimes they go a little overboard with mixing but maybe they will do a better job capturing the overall trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 We've lost our sun late this morning due to a shield of thick cirrus spilling down from the nw. The Euro also shows some cirrus spilling down over the northeast half of Iowa and northern Illinois on Monday. That could hold us back by a few degrees. The Euro is way over-doing the cloud cover as we approach it's 18z forecast for today. Showing way too many clouds out over the Plains, and way to thick/widespread cloud cover over IA. The 4km NAM looks much more in line with what's going on today, and shows tomorrow as being fairly clear. Wouldn't be surprised to see some thin patches of cirrus float over the northeast half of IA tomorrow, but don't think it will be enough to have much of an impact on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 OAX had 850 mb temp of 13.6C on the 12z RAOB. The 00z ob will be telling and may give a clue for tomorrow (also in terms of mixing potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Looking forward to seeing what the RAP and HRRR spit out for tomorrow. Seems like they sometimes they go a little overboard with mixing but maybe they will do a better job capturing the overall trend. Yep. Definitely gonna pay attention to how well they do for today, and then we'll have a good idea as we head into tomorrow morning. Up to 60 here, and 62 at MLI. Temps have already risen over 30 degrees since around 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 The Euro is way over-doing the cloud cover as we approach it's 18z forecast for today. Showing way too many clouds out over the Plains, and way to thick/widespread cloud cover over IA. The 4km NAM looks much more in line with what's going on today, and shows tomorrow as being fairly clear. Wouldn't be surprised to see some thin patches of cirrus float over the northeast half of IA tomorrow, but don't think it will be enough to have much of an impact on temps. Over here in Iowa the clouds are pretty solid. We only rose 2 degrees last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Wow, glad I don't have to worry about 80s being forecast. Even with low dews, that's too much for mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 53 at LAF. Have had a long way to go to recover from the morning low of 25. Should have a 15-20 degree better start tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 sitting at 39 this afternoon, I thought it was going to be warmer before the cool down the rest of the week. Noticed, and blasted my first chipmunk of the season. Hated to off the little booger, but like a lot of homes in a remote location, this one sat empty and on the market for 2 years and the little turds took over. Spent all of Autumn dwindling down the population but they went into hibernation before I could finish. Still a beautiful day and the drains off the house are dripping once again as the roof melt continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 57 now, up 32 degrees from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 It was mostly sunny here until just a short time ago. Mid level clouds streaming in now will probably put the lid on the temperature rise. Hit 24° this morning and now it's 56°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Up to 64 here. Some patches of cirrus floating over from time to time, but WAA is overcoming the lack of total sunshine. MLI also at 64. They have a shot at 70, but will probably fall a bit short. Temps already pushing 80 out of parts of SD and NE, and they're an hour behind compared to the central/eastern MW. NAM/GFS/Euro busting hard out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Up to 64 here. Some patches of cirrus floating over from time to time, but WAA is overcoming the lack of total sunshine. MLI also at 64. They have a shot at 70, but will probably fall a bit short. Temps already pushing 80 out of parts of SD and NE, and they're an hour behind compared to the central/eastern MW. NAM/GFS/Euro busting hard out there today. Here's what the 15z RAP had for 18z compared to reality. Certainly doing a better job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Here's what the 15z RAP had for 18z compared to reality. Certainly doing a better job. rap.png current.png Yeah that's a pretty close match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 59 at LAF, up 34 degrees from the morning low. Some fun facts... Last diurnal spread of 35 degrees at LAF: April 20, 2014 (75/40) Last diurnal spread >35 degrees at LAF: April 12, 2014 (77/40) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Temps struggling as expected but based on satellite trends still think a late rally is in store. The ABR sounding this morning had a pretty ideal look for maximized mixing. This is probably what I'd expect across NE, IA and maybe into W IL tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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