Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 12z NAM/GFS have 850 mb temps of 14-16C in some areas, in line with what happened during Morch 2012 (mixing must have been great then to allow for 80s). For Monday, model forecast soundings that I checked generally keep mixing limited to around 900 mb. If the 850 mb temps can be tapped, look out. GFS is quicker with the front, but has been having timing/inconsistency issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Snow depth down to a T this morning at DTW, which ends the stretch of 68 consecutive days with 1"+ snowdepth. This is the 8th longest stretch of continuous snowcover since such records began for Detroit (late 1800s). 81 days (Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904) 77 days (Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014) 74 days (Jan 1, 1978 - Mar 15, 1978) 73 days (Dec 11, 1944 - Feb 21, 1945) 72 days (Jan 8, 1912 - Mar 19, 1912) 69 days (Dec 25, 1909 - Mar 3, 1910) 69 days (Dec 10, 1947 - Feb 17, 1948) 68 days (Jan 5, 2015 - Mar 13, 2015) Also...this brings the total 1"+ snowcover days for the 2014-15 season to 75 days. This is the 13th highest amount on record with a possibility of moving higher should any notable spring snows occur. The record of 96 days was set last winter. For comparison, average for a winter season is 48 days! In other words, we have had approximately 3.6 winters worth of snowcover in the last 2 winter seasons, to say nothing of the record smashing lengths of the deepest snow. So since I have had my glory, I will *try* not to complain if next winter is more of a rollercoaster where we get more storms but meltdown in between (in other words, a more typical SE MI winter lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 And we can't get a drop of rain around here... feast or famine. Impressive contrast across the subforum so far this month with some areas at 300%+ of average precipitation and others at 5% or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 DTX put out this graphic. Though this is only since 1948. I think theres a glitch in their xmacis for snow depth pre-1948 since snow depth from 1947 and earlier was done in tenths of inches, not whole inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Impressive contrast across the subforum so far this month with some areas at 300%+ of average precipitation and others at 5% or less. MonthPNormMRCC.png what the heck happened in SW MN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 what the heck happened in SW MN? Not sure....my first thought with that and the Kansas blob was that it's erroneous data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 12z ECMWF has 850 mb temps around 20C in Iowa on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 IND going with 70 here on Monday. I'm thinking we could beat that. Tomorrow looking warmer than previously...could hit 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 FWIW yesterday's 12z Euro busted about 5-6 degrees too cool for central IA yesterday. It had max temps in the mid to upper 60s, but temps made it into the low to mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 12z ECMWF has 850 mb temps around 20C in Iowa on Monday. What could be interesting is if areas mix just high enough to tap into that very warm air at that level. Could make for some areas really overachieving while other areas languish a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 What could be interesting is if areas mix just high enough to tap into that very warm air at that level. Could make for some areas really overachieving while other areas languish a bit. Good point. I'm also curious about dews...some of the guidance has them well into the 40s, but there's a ton of dry air aloft and if mixing is good enough, that could be overdone. Plus there's not as much of an assist from evapotranspiration at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Good point. I'm also curious about dews...some of the guidance has them well into the 40s, but there's a ton of dry air aloft and if mixing is good enough, that could be overdone. Plus there's not as much of an assist from evapotranspiration at this time of year. I'm sort of puzzled as to why mixing is forecast to be so crappy by all of the models. Full sunshine, with robust BL winds should really boost mixing one would think. These thermal profiles are sort of like a 50 gallon barrel of gas sitting a few feet away from a bonfire. Just need them to touch and then BAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I'm sort of puzzled as to why mixing is forecast to be so crappy by all of the models. Full sunshine, with robust BL winds should really boost mixing one would think. These thermal profiles are sort of like a 50 gallon barrel of gas sitting a few feet away from a bonfire. Just need them to touch and then BAM. My thought was because it's so dry aloft - it's not just kinda dry, it's really dry, and that makes it easier to warm the air aloft and create a situation where it's tough to mix too deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I'm all in for Monday. I'm thinking near 80 here, and mid to upper 80s out over central IA. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 pop up in western IA at some of those favored warm spots, like Sioux City. I see no reason why mixing won't be really good. Plus we always do real well with west-southwesterly flow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 My thought was because it's so dry aloft - it's not just kinda dry, it's really dry, and that makes it easier to warm the air aloft and create a situation where it's tough to mix too deep. Interesting. We'll see if that indeed does play out. I'm counting on the strong surface heating over the very dry surface (dried out VERY quickly after the snow melted) kicking up some strong thermals to tap that warmth aloft. DVN and DSM mentioning potential grass fire concerns tomorrow and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Interesting. We'll see if that indeed does play out. I'm counting on the strong surface heating over the very dry surface (dried out VERY quickly after the snow melted) kicking up some strong thermals to tap that warmth aloft. DVN and DSM mentioning potential grass fire concerns tomorrow and Monday. DVN hitting the fire danger in the afternoon AFD BASED ON THE CURRENT AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 20S...AND THE PAST FEW DAYS OF WARM SUNSHINE AND SURFACE DRYING IN THE LOCAL AREA...MODEL DEPICTION OF DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS SUSPECT. MIX DOWN TOOLS...BASED ON CONSERVATIVE MIXING DEPTHS POINT MORE TOWARD DEWPOINTS DRYING INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. FOR NOW...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH RANGE OF 30 TO 35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THIS...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND WIDESPREAD DRIED DORMANT VEGETATION...WILL LEAD TO GFDI VALUES INTO THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF HIGHWAY 218. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ELEVATED THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON A WARM DAY ON MONDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED. MONDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF THE COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE DVN CWA SQUARELY IN THE DRY AND BREEZY WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...THESE READINGS ARE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...SET BACK IN 2012 WHEN WE HAD THAT INCREDIBLE 7 DAY RUN OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE WARM DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER AS THE GRASSES WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 After the recent warmth, today seems colder than it is even tho it's normal today. Hovering around 32 here. Actually looks like a real nice weekend south of here. Should nicer tomorrow before a pretty sharp cool down back to normal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Few patches of snow here and there and piles of course, but that's it for snow now. Beautiful day at 56°. All the migrating birds are flooding back into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Few patches of snow here and there and piles of course, but that's it for snow now. Beautiful day at 56°. All the migrating birds are flooding back into the area. Even warmer over here recently, but I still haven't seen a robin or red-winged blackbird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 A look at Monday via the 18z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 66 to 79 is pretty much the range of high temps possible at MSP tomorrow. Lower end if mixing struggles to 925mb and high clouds dominate. Higher end, full radiative heating and mixing to 850mb. I'm leaning lower given clouds will be an issue for at least part of the day but I think some decent breaks occur towards the end of daytime heating. 71 at MSP occurring after 21z... 73 to 86 for DSM on Monday but I'd take the over 80 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 We made it to 61 today with 850 temps at 5C. 18z NAM has us at 17C at 21z Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Coney Island flooding.... Coney Island prepares for more flooding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Even warmer over here recently, but I still haven't seen a robin or red-winged blackbird. They'll get there! I saw the first Red-Winged Blackbird yesterday and today a few Robins. As of yesterday- chipmunks are scampering about. Nice enough here to have a few windows open during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I'm thinking mid 70s are attainable here on Monday...this is above all guidance but the deck is stacked in favor of an overperformer (plenty of sun, dry ground, less evapotranspiration, WSW flow) with the only real question being mixing depth. Being conservative and mixing to just 925 mb would yield highs of around 73 or 74. If we somehow mix above 900 mb then upper 70s would be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Made 62F today even with stiff NW winds all day. Almost 30F gain from a low of 33F this morning. Some frost out there when i awoke from my slumber. It did feel cool with the breeze. Upper 40Fs next week..brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 First robin in my yard this afternoon...stupid thing wants to build a nest in my garage...every year...same thing. Not sure if its the same bird, but it must tell its friends. They'll get there! I saw the first Red-Winged Blackbird yesterday and today a few Robins. As of yesterday- chipmunks are scampering about. Nice enough here to have a few windows open during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Now the 4km NAM has 850 mb temps of 20C in parts of Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Roughly 20C spread across MN in 850mb temps on Monday with the front moving in. Welcome back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Now the 4km NAM has 850 mb temps of 20C in parts of Iowa 4km.png 81 here, 82 MLI, 85 DSM, and 91 at SUX Monday. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.