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March 2015 General disco


snowstormcanuck

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12z NAM/GFS have 850 mb temps of 14-16C in some areas, in line with what happened during Morch 2012 (mixing must have been great then to allow for 80s).   For Monday, model forecast soundings that I checked generally keep mixing limited to around 900 mb.  If the 850 mb temps can be tapped, look out.

 

GFS is quicker with the front, but has been having timing/inconsistency issues.

 

 

post-14-0-26862800-1426351530_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-36538700-1426351541_thumb.png

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Snow depth down to a T this morning at DTW, which ends the stretch of 68 consecutive days with 1"+ snowdepth.

 

This is the 8th longest stretch of continuous snowcover since such records began for Detroit (late 1800s).

81 days (Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904)

77 days (Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014)

74 days (Jan 1, 1978 - Mar 15, 1978)

73 days (Dec 11, 1944 - Feb 21, 1945)

72 days (Jan 8, 1912 - Mar 19, 1912)

69 days (Dec 25, 1909 - Mar 3, 1910)

69 days (Dec 10, 1947 - Feb 17, 1948)

68 days (Jan 5, 2015 - Mar 13, 2015)

 

Also...this brings the total 1"+ snowcover days for the 2014-15 season to 75 days. This is the 13th highest amount on record with a possibility of moving higher should any notable spring snows occur. The record of 96 days was set last winter. For comparison, average for a winter season is 48 days! In other words, we have had approximately 3.6 winters worth of snowcover in the last 2 winter seasons, to say nothing of the record smashing lengths of the deepest snow. So since I have had my glory, I will *try* not to complain if next winter is more of a rollercoaster where we get more storms but meltdown in between (in other words, a more typical SE MI winter lol).

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What could be interesting is if areas mix just high enough to tap into that very warm air at that level.  Could make for some areas really overachieving while other areas languish a bit.  

 

 

Good point.  I'm also curious about dews...some of the guidance has them well into the 40s, but there's a ton of dry air aloft and if mixing is good enough, that could be overdone.  Plus there's not as much of an assist from evapotranspiration at this time of year.

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Good point.  I'm also curious about dews...some of the guidance has them well into the 40s, but there's a ton of dry air aloft and if mixing is good enough, that could be overdone.  Plus there's not as much of an assist from evapotranspiration at this time of year.

 

I'm sort of puzzled as to why mixing is forecast to be so crappy by all of the models.  Full sunshine, with robust BL winds should really boost mixing one would think.  These thermal profiles are sort of like a 50 gallon barrel of gas sitting a few feet away from a bonfire.  Just need them to touch and then BAM.  

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I'm sort of puzzled as to why mixing is forecast to be so crappy by all of the models.  Full sunshine, with robust BL winds should really boost mixing one would think.  These thermal profiles are sort of like a 50 gallon barrel of gas sitting a few feet away from a bonfire.  Just need them to touch and then BAM.  

 

My thought was because it's so dry aloft - it's not just kinda dry, it's really dry, and that makes it easier to warm the air aloft and create a situation where it's tough to mix too deep.

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I'm all in for Monday.  I'm thinking near 80 here, and mid to upper 80s out over central IA.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 pop up in western IA at some of those favored warm spots, like Sioux City.  I see no reason why mixing won't be really good.  Plus we always do real well with west-southwesterly flow here.  

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My thought was because it's so dry aloft - it's not just kinda dry, it's really dry, and that makes it easier to warm the air aloft and create a situation where it's tough to mix too deep.

 

Interesting.  We'll see if that indeed does play out.  I'm counting on the strong surface heating over the very dry surface (dried out VERY quickly after the snow melted) kicking up some strong thermals to tap that warmth aloft.  DVN and DSM mentioning potential grass fire concerns tomorrow and Monday.

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Interesting.  We'll see if that indeed does play out.  I'm counting on the strong surface heating over the very dry surface (dried out VERY quickly after the snow melted) kicking up some strong thermals to tap that warmth aloft.  DVN and DSM mentioning potential grass fire concerns tomorrow and Monday.

 

DVN hitting the fire danger in the afternoon AFD

 

 

BASED ON THE CURRENT AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE   MIXED OUT INTO THE 20S...AND THE PAST FEW DAYS OF WARM SUNSHINE AND   SURFACE DRYING IN THE LOCAL AREA...MODEL DEPICTION OF DEWPOINTS   HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FORECAST   AREA APPEARS SUSPECT. MIX DOWN TOOLS...BASED ON CONSERVATIVE MIXING   DEPTHS POINT MORE TOWARD DEWPOINTS DRYING INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER  30S. FOR NOW...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH RANGE OF 30 TO 35  THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES AS  LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THIS...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WINDS OF  15 TO 25 MPH AND WIDESPREAD DRIED DORMANT VEGETATION...WILL LEAD  TO GFDI VALUES INTO THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY IN THE  AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHEST VALUES WEST OF HIGHWAY 218. WILL  CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ELEVATED THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER  OUTLOOK.     LONG TERM  (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015    FORECAST FOCUS ON A WARM DAY ON MONDAY THEN COOLING BACK DOWN TO   NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. LITTLE   IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.    MONDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF THE COLD   FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE DVN CWA   SQUARELY IN THE DRY AND BREEZY WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON   TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...THESE   READINGS ARE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS WHICH   ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...SET BACK IN 2012 WHEN WE HAD   THAT INCREDIBLE 7 DAY RUN OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE WARM DRY   AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF VERY   HIGH FIRE DANGER AS THE GRASSES WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY. THE COLD FRONT   PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT THE AIRMASS IS QUITE   DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT.  
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66 to 79 is pretty much the range of high temps possible at MSP tomorrow. Lower end if mixing struggles to 925mb and high clouds dominate. Higher end, full radiative heating and mixing to 850mb. I'm leaning lower given clouds will be an issue for at least part of the day but I think some decent breaks occur towards the end of daytime heating. 71 at MSP occurring after 21z...

 

73 to 86 for DSM on Monday but I'd take the over 80 at this point.

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Even warmer over here recently, but I still haven't seen a robin or red-winged blackbird.

 

They'll get there!

I saw the first Red-Winged Blackbird yesterday and today a few Robins. As of yesterday- chipmunks are scampering about.

Nice enough here to have a few windows open during the day. 

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I'm thinking mid 70s are attainable here on Monday...this is above all guidance but the deck is stacked in favor of an overperformer (plenty of sun, dry ground, less evapotranspiration, WSW flow) with the only real question being mixing depth.  Being conservative and mixing to just 925 mb would yield highs of around 73 or 74.  If we somehow mix above 900 mb then upper 70s would be in play.

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First robin in my yard this afternoon...stupid thing wants to build a nest in my garage...every year...same thing.  Not sure if its the same bird, but it must tell its friends.

They'll get there!

I saw the first Red-Winged Blackbird yesterday and today a few Robins. As of yesterday- chipmunks are scampering about.

Nice enough here to have a few windows open during the day. 

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