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March 2015 General disco


snowstormcanuck

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  On 3/17/2015 at 12:44 AM, Hoosier said:

Tied the record from 2012.

 

Nice.  Hanging in March 2012 territory is very respectable indeed.  

 

Pretty pleased with my forecast calls, except Waterloo.  Some morning clouds, and a slightly earlier frontal passage made for temps in the lower 80s instead of 87.

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  On 3/17/2015 at 12:46 AM, Hoosier said:

00z DVN RAOB

 

 

attachicon.gifDVN.gif

 

Interesting.  Moisture in the BL had greater depth than I thought it would.  Guess that explains why the dews stayed above 40 in the QCA.  Surface flow was bringing up some moisture from Missouri, but due to the drier westerlies above that I figured the moisture would be very shallow.  Guess the surface moisture advection was actually fairly decent, relatively speaking.  Probably knocked a few degrees off over far eastern IA, where dews refused to dip below 40.

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  On 3/17/2015 at 12:50 AM, cyclone77 said:

Interesting.  Moisture in the BL had greater depth than I thought it would.  Guess that explains why the dews stayed above 40 in the QCA.  Surface flow was bringing up some moisture from Missouri, but due to the drier westerlies above that I figured the moisture would be very shallow.  Guess the surface moisture advection was actually fairly decent, relatively speaking.  Probably knocked a few degrees off over far eastern IA, where dews refused to dip below 40.

 

850 mb temp at DVN is 15.0C, good enough for 3rd highest on record in March.

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  On 3/17/2015 at 1:05 AM, Chicago WX said:

Temp talk, and non-record at that for us, is pretty  :sleepy: for me. 

 

Alas, back to reality...and more boringness. Back into hibernation I go. :D

 

 

 

Key word there.  What else has there been to talk about?   The first 70s are always nice.

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LOT issues wind advisory for some of the lakeside counties

 

  Quote

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY ALONG THE  LAKEFRONT...    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WIND  ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY.     * TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND    CONTINUE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.     * WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH LIKELY    ALONG THE LAKE.   
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Overcast skies all day really killed it here today. I didn't see a break in the clouds from sun up to sundown.

Oh well, the warmup was only for one day anyway and I guess it's better for the vegetation not to get shocked by a 70 degree day before we plummet back into the freezer.

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  On 3/17/2015 at 12:18 AM, IWXwx said:

SBN even hit 72°, tying the LAF. Weird that both my Davis and my truck thermometer showed 69° around 4:30, but FWA only hit 61°.

 

 

  On 3/17/2015 at 1:52 AM, Polar Vortex 2014 said:

FWA had a high of 67 today.

 

Yeah, I just saw that. At 4 PM, they had only hit 61°, then the sun made appearance and combined with strong WAA, they got a 6 degree jump in an hour.

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  On 3/17/2015 at 3:26 AM, Hoosier said:

RAP has dewpoints near 0 in some areas tomorrow

 

attachicon.gifrap.png

 

Mostly in the single digits and low 10s in that region now. Will have to wait to see if afternoon mixing can send them below zero. Mid 40s with below zero dewpoints, plus gusty winds, would spell high fire danger for this evening.

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Hard time climbing here this afternoon...44F at airport...  Never made it out of the 60fs yesterday.  Trees are starting to show signs of life here. Just notice this morning.  I think this cooler weather should put the brakes on some of that.  River here is really opening.  I'd guess ice fishing is about done around here.

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  On 3/17/2015 at 5:22 PM, Thunder Road said:

Big CME today?  Kp index is up to 8.  I know next to nothing about space weather, but it's pretty darn clear out there now, and should hopefully stay clear for the first few hours of this evening.

 

Yes, a big one! A severe geomagnetic storm is in progress right now. 

 

aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.png

 

http://spaceweather.com/

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I think we're going to head out around 10 tonight and see what we can see before cloud cover becomes prohibitive.  The SWPC model seems to indicate that that would be futile since the high probs of auroral viewing don't move in until after 06z, but I'm listening to their briefing from 16z now and they seem to just be generally uncertain about everything.

 

Also, despite their model showing the view line only scraping the northern U.S., they mention the potential for auroral viewing as far south as the central U.S., so I'm not sure what the discrepancy is, or if I'm not interpreting the model output correctly.

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