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2/25 event venting/whining/whatever thread


BullCityWx

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Looks like FL/GA border to me but its tough to say, better hope the NAM is wrong 998 MB low over Emerald Isle equals no snow RDU to the east.....you might not get rain but it wont be snow.......and I would get mostly rain......I am sure the folks west of RDU hope its right though...

 

The 1002 slp near the mouth of the Mississippi does seem to have a bit more of a northerly component than earlier. If you follow the wind flags to the northeast, the slp tends to follow where they are the lightest. You can even see a kind of "seam." This path does appear to be south GA to south east SC and offshore. There is plenty of time to wiggle though. I'm sticking with nearer to Savannah for now. 

 

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Hey, I'll be able to see 10" from my house while I'm standing in 3".

 

One thing to note is the cutoff will be more west to east once the coastal starts to bomb and I am pretty sure there will be a nasty band setting up right over RDU that will move east as the low lifts out....this could be a rare setup where the strength of the low overcomes the warm layer with rates.....the warm nose here even isnt that strong or deep and its even less for you and rates can overcome it....basically if it snows hard enough it will be all snow and if the low really is all insane like the models keep insisting then even though there is a warm nose you might stay all snow just due to the shear volume of it falling......that why the NAM/RAP/HRRR have insane snow totals ( they even give me 8-9") they are basically saying its gonna snow so hard you cant help but get clobbered.

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So, it sounds like NW wake county isn't looking so great after all? I swear every time a storm happens I listen to my heart instead of my head. I should have learned by now not to do that!

Your good, if your south of I-40 I would be sweating.  I really think this will be rate dependent and I have hard time believing we rain.  No doubt we mix snow/sleet but will see.  If we get in a deform band tonight and it's rain then I give up.

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18z GFS is all snow for RDU, does that count for anything?   :bag:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18#

 

Pressure falling pretty quick around the FL/GA border if we can get the SLP to follow that then it will help us central eastern people quite  bit....

 

and I am at work and are crappy system wont let me link to the map and  it screwed up the link and doesnt show the 2 hr pressure changes :axe:

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I think so. He probably peaked at the sref too which had a mean of 8.3. I hope cold rain gets alot of snow, he has been on the wrong end of a few of these.

Lol, I am going to look out my window first thing in the morning and I fully expect to see no snow. I can tell. This is one of those that is slipping away. You can see it slipping little by little. In fact, I will take a pic of my yard in the morning and post it as proof that I know what I'm talking about.

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One thing to note is the cutoff will be more west to east once the coastal starts to bomb and I am pretty sure there will be a nasty band setting up right over RDU that will move east as the low lifts out....this could be a rare setup where the strength of the low overcomes the warm layer with rates.....the warm nose here even isnt that strong or deep and its even less for you and rates can overcome it....basically if it snows hard enough it will be all snow and if the low really is all insane like the models keep insisting then even though there is a warm nose you might stay all snow just due to the shear volume of it falling......that why the NAM/RAP/HRRR have insane snow totals ( they even give me 8-9") they are basically saying its gonna snow so hard you cant help but get clobbered.

This is good info to keep in mind. We'll see how it all plays out. It's unfortunate to see the kind of shifting we have 24 hours out. This is why I will never doubt or underestimate the NW trend.

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