Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like FL/GA border to me but its tough to say, better hope the NAM is wrong 998 MB low over Emerald Isle equals no snow RDU to the east.....you might not get rain but it wont be snow.......and I would get mostly rain......I am sure the folks west of RDU hope its right though... The 1002 slp near the mouth of the Mississippi does seem to have a bit more of a northerly component than earlier. If you follow the wind flags to the northeast, the slp tends to follow where they are the lightest. You can even see a kind of "seam." This path does appear to be south GA to south east SC and offshore. There is plenty of time to wiggle though. I'm sticking with nearer to Savannah for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Final Call: Raleigh: 5" Greensboro: 7" Burlington: 8" Chapel Hill: 7" Durham: 7" High Point: 8" Charlotte: 6" Packbacker: 6" Brick: 7" Me: 2" Anybody else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Final Call: Raleigh: 5" Greensboro: 7" Burlington: 8" Chapel Hill: 7" Durham: 7" High Point: 8" Charlotte: 6" Packbacker: 6" Brick: 7" Me: 2" Anybody else? 9 snow predictions and a personal observation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 10 snow predictions and a personal observation? Yeah, sorry I forgot to add jburns: 1" That's just a rumor though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, it sounds like NW wake county isn't looking so great after all? I swear every time a storm happens I listen to my heart instead of my head. I should have learned by now not to do that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hey, I'll be able to see 10" from my house while I'm standing in 3". One thing to note is the cutoff will be more west to east once the coastal starts to bomb and I am pretty sure there will be a nasty band setting up right over RDU that will move east as the low lifts out....this could be a rare setup where the strength of the low overcomes the warm layer with rates.....the warm nose here even isnt that strong or deep and its even less for you and rates can overcome it....basically if it snows hard enough it will be all snow and if the low really is all insane like the models keep insisting then even though there is a warm nose you might stay all snow just due to the shear volume of it falling......that why the NAM/RAP/HRRR have insane snow totals ( they even give me 8-9") they are basically saying its gonna snow so hard you cant help but get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Final Call: Raleigh: 5" Greensboro: 7" Burlington: 8" Chapel Hill: 7" Durham: 7" High Point: 8" Charlotte: 6" Packbacker: 6" Brick: 7" Me: 2" Anybody else? I'm not on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not on there. I gotcha man. Franklin: 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The line at the Food Lion on TW Alexander in Morrisville/Durham/raleigh/RTP is stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Raleigh: 8" Greensboro: 10" Burlington: 9" Chapel Hill: 9" Durham: 10" High Point: 12" Charlotte: 8" Packbacker: 8" Brick: 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure why so many get excited over large flakes. It simply means there is warm air a some level and not a good sign for continued snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derrickm Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Man, I'm going to get shafted in southern Lee County aren't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll go with my 1-13" in Clayton.... using a summary of all forecasts I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, it sounds like NW wake county isn't looking so great after all? I swear every time a storm happens I listen to my heart instead of my head. I should have learned by now not to do that! Your good, if your south of I-40 I would be sweating. I really think this will be rate dependent and I have hard time believing we rain. No doubt we mix snow/sleet but will see. If we get in a deform band tonight and it's rain then I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z GFS is all snow for RDU, does that count for anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sounds about like mine here. Going with 1-9" I'll go with my 1-13" in Clayton.... using a summary of all forecasts I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Your good, if your south of I-40 I would be sweating. I really think this will be rate dependent and I have hard time believing we rain. No doubt we mix snow/sleet but will see. If we get in a deform band tonight and it's rain then I give up. I'll give up with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure why so many get excited over large flakes. It simply means there is warm air at some level and not a good sign for continued snow. Lotta large flakes floating around this forum today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I gotcha man. Franklin: 8" sounds good. How did you come up with that figure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 sounds good. How did you come up with that figure? Sounds like he's been spying on you, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I guess I can expect rain here I'm right on the central nc/sc border going by the models don't put hardly anything here except rain unless this thing turns south lol which will not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure why so many get excited over large flakes. It simply means there is warm air at some level and not a good sign for continued snow. Snow novices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z GFS is all snow for RDU, does that count for anything? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18# Pressure falling pretty quick around the FL/GA border if we can get the SLP to follow that then it will help us central eastern people quite bit.... and I am at work and are crappy system wont let me link to the map and it screwed up the link and doesnt show the 2 hr pressure changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Snow novices. I love me some good powder falling from the heavens. The heavy powder last February was awesome. It will be interesting to see what type of flakes we get tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tons of wasted snow and sleet here. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sounds like he's been spying on you, man.I think so. He probably peaked at the sref too which had a mean of 8.3. I hope cold rain gets alot of snow, he has been on the wrong end of a few of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 sounds good. How did you come up with that figure? Not very scientifically. Counting on you to stay all snow. Counting on you to get under a heavy snow band. You're a nice guy. All of those factored in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 rain yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think so. He probably peaked at the sref too which had a mean of 8.3. I hope cold rain gets alot of snow, he has been on the wrong end of a few of these. Lol, I am going to look out my window first thing in the morning and I fully expect to see no snow. I can tell. This is one of those that is slipping away. You can see it slipping little by little. In fact, I will take a pic of my yard in the morning and post it as proof that I know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 One thing to note is the cutoff will be more west to east once the coastal starts to bomb and I am pretty sure there will be a nasty band setting up right over RDU that will move east as the low lifts out....this could be a rare setup where the strength of the low overcomes the warm layer with rates.....the warm nose here even isnt that strong or deep and its even less for you and rates can overcome it....basically if it snows hard enough it will be all snow and if the low really is all insane like the models keep insisting then even though there is a warm nose you might stay all snow just due to the shear volume of it falling......that why the NAM/RAP/HRRR have insane snow totals ( they even give me 8-9") they are basically saying its gonna snow so hard you cant help but get clobbered. This is good info to keep in mind. We'll see how it all plays out. It's unfortunate to see the kind of shifting we have 24 hours out. This is why I will never doubt or underestimate the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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