downeastnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How are those pressure falls coming? Looks like FL/GA border to me but its tough to say, better hope the NAM is wrong 998 MB low over Emerald Isle equals no snow RDU to the east.....you might not get rain but it wont be snow.......and I would get mostly rain......I am sure the folks west of RDU hope its right though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sure, things could go wrong, but I am not going to freak out and be depressed over it like some of y'all. I just don't get harping on everything that could wrong. Just see what happens, be hopeful, and enjoy it. Let me help. Picture yourself sitting in a fountain while Greg Fishel takes photos and a video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opethlike Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Came wishing to find snow heading for Augusta area, staying for the Brick posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ji with the first Jan 2000 mention I've seen so far in the Mid-Atlantic thread... this has January 25 2000 written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like FL/GA border to me but its tough to say, better hope the NAM is wrong 998 MB low over Emerald Isle equals no snow RDU to the east.....you might not get rain but it wont be snow.......and I would get mostly rain......I am sure the folks west of RDU hope its right though... NWS Raleigh said in their disco that the low is already initialize slightly north of the model projections. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY......MAJOR WINTER STORM SET TO STRIKE CENTRAL NC WITH 6 INCHES OR MOREWET SNOW LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC INCLUDING THERALEIGH AND GREENSBORO METRO AREAS......WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAYTHURSDAY FOR ALL THE PIEDMONT...NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN ANDSANDHILLS AND NOW INCLUDING WAYNE COUNTY......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAYFOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OFTHE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND IN FACT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSISSHOWS THE SURFACE CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST POSITION.THIS CONTINUED TREND RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ANDHEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.NWP GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURESRELEVANT TO THIS FORECAST HOWEVER...SUCH A HIGH AMPLITUDE EVENT CANBE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE MOST SUBLE VARIABLES. SO WHILECONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO SEVERALFACTORS STILL MAKE US UNEASY REGARDING OVERALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS.WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ANTECDENTTEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...THEPRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN NEAR THEVA BORDER. BUT GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION RATES...DIABATICCOOLING FROM MELTING SHOULD COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AROUNDFREEZING AND ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ANDBEGIN ACCUMULATING. THIS SCENARIO INHERENTLY CONTAINS SOME RISK FORA FORECAST BUST. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RATES AND SHORT DURATION OFEVENT MEAN THAT EVERY HOUR COUNTS AND THAT A SLIGHT DELAY IN THECOLD AIR OR A MIXTURE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON STORMTOTALS.WITH A FEW OF THE MAJOR CAVEATS NOTED...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING INA MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW OF 6 INCHES OR MORELIKELY TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC INCLUDING THE RALEIGH ANDGREENSBORO METRO AREAS. THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO FALLIN THE REGION FROM RALEIGH NORTHEAST TO THE ROANOKE RAPIDS AREASWHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. VERYIMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOURWILL ALLOW SNOW TOTOALS TO EXPLODE AFTER MIDNIGHT.THE FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTALPLAIN...SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND EVEN NEAR THE SC BORDER WHERE A WARMNOSE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE THE SNOW TO A MIXTURE OFSNOW...SLEET AN FREEZING RAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHOF CLINTON...FAYETTEVILLE AND RAEFORD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WONTFALL BELOW FREEZING AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL FALL IN A SHORTWINDOW DURING THE LATE EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST ASLOPPY WET SNOW OR RAIN EXPECTED AFTER 200 AM OR.DRY SLOTTING WILL END THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 3 TO 5 AM WITH THE MAIN AREA OFPRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER ENDING FROM WEST TO EASTBETWEEN 5 AND 7AM. ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL END BYOR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT WILLHAVE REACHED THEIR COLDEST AND HAVE FALLEN TO THE 28 TO 32 RANGE.SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENTSHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ORMIST BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TO THE 33 TO 36RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ji with the first Jan 2000 mention I've seen so far in the Mid-Atlantic thread... uh no not quite for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My favorite NC snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The sun today has nothing to do with what happens tonight. I swear, with you, PackGrad05, and packbacker. You'd think State fans would be happy and optimistic for once today. I think you said it right there. State fans are use to disappointment. So we tend to be a little more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sure, things could go wrong, but I am not going to freak out and be depressed over it like some of y'all. I just don't get harping on everything that could wrong. Just see what happens, be hopeful, and enjoy it. I think there is a difference between realistic vs delusional. I don't think anyone is freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm hoping we can get down to around 30° tonight instead of the 32°. We usually are able to drop below freezing under heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is why you don't trust weather apps on your phones... there has NEVER been talk of 8"-12" on the Outer Banks with this storm (that I'm aware of) 3:05PM Wed Afternoon... The forecasters keep changing their minds about this storm. Let's hope this is one forecast that gets changed ASAP. 8-12 inches would bring the OBX to its knees. #snobx #movedheretogetawayfromsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is why you don't trust weather apps on your phones... there has NEVER been talk of 8"-12" on the Outer Banks with this storm (that I'm aware of) 3:05PM Wed Afternoon... The forecasters keep changing their minds about this storm. Let's hope this is one forecast that gets changed ASAP. 8-12 inches would bring the OBX to its knees. #snobx #movedheretogetawayfromsnow Weather Underground had me 80% Rain until this afternoon lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So has then cold air moved south any or amni looking at all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well parts of Alabama come to a grinding halt... http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bmx&wwa=civil%20emergency%20message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow! Just looks at those returns east of Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is why you don't trust weather apps on your phones... there has NEVER been talk of 8"-12" on the Outer Banks with this storm (that I'm aware of) 3:05PM Wed Afternoon... The forecasters keep changing their minds about this storm. Let's hope this is one forecast that gets changed ASAP. 8-12 inches would bring the OBX to its knees. #snobx #movedheretogetawayfromsnow lol I will say though, that those folks who live on the outer banks year round would take it in stride. It wouldn't cause near the disruption it does in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow! Just looks at those returns east of Athens. That's called bright-banding. Indicative of water-coated snowflakes/sleet...not necessarily heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's called bright-banding. Indicative of water-coated snowflakes/sleet...not necessarily heavy precip. Oh yeah, I'm sure its IP but still I don't think I've ever seen that large of an area with echos like that in a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No wonder people are so confused... DT says.... enjoy your 11-13", Solak. 18Z 4km HI-RES NAM / WRF Model . INCREASES SNOW AGAIN !! ocver central NC...north central NC into entie southeast half of VA ...event into RICHMOND WRAL says... enjoy your 3-5", Solak. SNOW POTENTIAL: Here's the latest from the WRAL Weather Team.Stay updated>>>wral.com/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL has six colors on the map but only four amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Its going to be fun getting 3 inches here in Apex, whereas my work in Durham will get near a foot. Thats cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL has six colors on the map but only four amounts. Looks way, way underdone for areas further west, though I guess it's not in their viewing area, so they don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Its going to be fun getting 3 inches here in Apex, whereas my work in Durham will get near a foot. Thats cool. Hey, I'll be able to see 10" from my house while I'm standing in 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL has six colors on the map but only four amounts. Even worse, NWS refuses to estimate the total number of flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 681 user(s) are browsing this forumSomething going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM throws down some serious rain for Raleigh, 0.5" QPF, 1" frozen QPF. Tough to swallow, oh well typical RDU bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 681 user(s) are browsing this forum Something going on? ATL northern metro is on the verge of a major snow and parts of SC/NC are going to get absolutely crushed. Pants-tent worthy excitement IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM throws down some serious rain for Raleigh, 0.5" QPF, 1" frozen QPF. Tough to swallow, oh well typical RDU bust. We're not going to get a lot of snow here with a low pressure tracking west of Hatteras. And we won't get a lot of frozen either without a cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.