downeastnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 1006 slp south of New Orleans. You can follow the 3hr pressure change and/or the wind direction and speeds. Looks like the slp is headed east northeast generally toward the Florida panhandle. Right we ( or at least I ) need it to come off around the FL/GA border or lower then continue to follow that line NE, anything right along the coast screws most of NC east of RDU, the more amped models bring it more into south central GA and off teh SC coast near Charleston that generally isnt good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wait, Brick didn't faint yet? It's hammer time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I need that cold air to trend 50 miles southeast or us coastal guys will get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 And this is what WRAL shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Alright, I'll contribute to the whining. For Upstate SC folks (mostly above 85): 1. 12z GFS looks to dry slot/change to mostly rain for us (can't tell which yet). 2. Surface temps hampering accumulations? Seen it too many times where it pours snow yet nothing sticks because the surface is too warm. 3. Too much rain to begin with, even with the changeover? Not cliff-diving, but have to throw them out there. Dry slot in a Miller A? Surface temps? After a fairly cold February and snow yesterday? Barely breaking 40 degrees today (which isn't even the case yet)? I'm Ron Burgundy? Well it's over. Storm going poof and temps torching. Hoping this thread won't be need for me, but I could have used it last night looking at the hires nam. Now that I'm 40, it's good to know that sarcasm is still funny. You were being sarcastic...no no, don't speak...you WERE being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Right we ( or at least I ) need it to come off around the FL/GA border or lower then continue to follow that line NE, anything right along the coast screws most of NC east of RDU, the more amped models bring it more into south central GA and off teh SC coast near Charleston that generally isnt good for us. My intuitive sense tells me that this baby likes the ocean. I think it will generally stay just off shore- emerges into the Atlantic nearer Savannah than Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 And this is what WRAL shows. Yay! I get an inch of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yay! I get an inch of snow! So, it's their one in-house model against all the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Congrats on the snow potential (potential because I don't want to jinx it), hope everyone enjoys! I'll be adding on another 3-4" up here, but envying folks to the south possible getting 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 And this is what WRAL shows. LOL, that's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's what I'm hoping for. Monitoring pressure falls will be important throughout the day. We are going to mix, probably 50/50 snow/sleet. So 3-5" of snow and potentially a lot of ice. That's how we roll in RDU now, we leave the big snows to SuperJames, LOL. I could also see us staying 80% snow, so 6-8". Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Brick has a subscription to Wxbell and Americanwx and accuwx. Waste of money brick. You could be buying meteorology books instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, it's their one in-house model against all the others. That's a great chance of verifying. We always underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's what I'm hoping for. Monitoring pressure falls will be important throughout the day. Agreed on that. S. GA track bad. FL good. Quoting Marty McFly....."why do we have to always cut these things so darn close!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I am East of ATL and basically in line with the top of the 285 perimeter. I think I am going to be in the hosed zone. Snowing and not sticking... or flipping back and forth between rain and snow... Wish I was in the guarantee zone. Same for my location so I guess i'm about to head to gainesville. I truly feel like this location has the potential to be a lot colder and see more snow than the models suggest with heavy precip but if not, I just don't think i could handle the frustration of mixing or even rain while a stones throw away there is 1/4 mile or less visibility and thundersnow at 2 or 3 inches per hour. Of course the last run or two of models have decreased the total liquid for..you guessed it..gainesville. Look at the totals on the rap..it's absurd...from close to 1.25 to less than 0.75 from gainesville NE...just skips right on over where i'll be. I'm sure that would follow me if i decided to go elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just a reminder for those of you on the transition areas. A lot of the wintery stuff will be rate driven, so when its light you may just get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, it's their one in-house model against all the others.4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 LOL, that's awful. Don't bet against Greg. He knows winter storm synoptics in the NC Piedmont as well as anyone. I see what they are looking at and they have they deserve the respect and right to make their opinion rather than regurgitating what is sent out from NWS. Fishel will always go low and build up rather than start high and back peddle. We'll see, it is an interesting event for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Agreed on that. S. GA track bad. FL good. Quoting Marty McFly....."why do we have to always cut these things so darn close!!" This storm will absolutely travel over or just inside Hateras. Mark this post. I don't put stock in any one model. But collectively, they are all telling us that it will be stronger and stronger. That equals left. I am just hoping to get some front in mercy flakes, after the front end rain, before the back end sleet and drizzle happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ellinwood, whose maps are usually not overdone, just went 8-12" here. WOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Really didn't think the foot would be a possibility with this one given its speed but who knows? I will hold out a little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ellinwood, whose maps are usually not overdone, just went 8-12" here. WOOF. You sir, are in a great spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Cheez climbing up on his roof to get video of sleet...now that is dedication! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Should I take my yardstick home from school today? I only have a 12" ruler at home. LOL! I guess there is about 5-10% chance of getting a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nckhawk Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Don't bet against Greg. He knows winter storm synoptics in the NC Piedmont as well as anyone. I see what they are looking at and they have they deserve the respect and right to make their opinion rather than regurgitating what is sent out from NWS. Fishel will always go low and build up rather than start high and back peddle. We'll see, it is an interesting event for all. Elizabeth Gardner showed the graphic that Brick posted at noon and described it as an example of one of the northernmost models. She also mentioned others that were aligning further south and indicated that she thought Central NC was in for a decent snow. When pushed with a 10" question from one of the anchors - she wouldn't bite and thought that 5" might be a better bet for around Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hot spot checking in. Up to 44.4°/31° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This storm will absolutely travel over or just inside Hateras. Mark this post. I don't put stock in any one model. But collectively, they are all telling us that it will be stronger and stronger. That equals left. I am just hoping to get some front in mercy flakes, after the front end rain, before the back end sleet and drizzle happens. I'm fine with that. As long as it stays in Florida on its way there!! I think S. GA would take a lot of CLT out if the game.....toeing the line we are. Dang gone I40 ERS in Winston going to have a great event again I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, it's their one in-house model against all the others. I will credit them with advising people to get out this afternoon to prepare for the storm. Some folks only get their weather info from the TV. I know a few of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Asheboro is my select city to jackpot with a foot or more. Also, a good location for thunder-snow as the potential shifts east-north-east overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No, ground temps won't be warm. One day of 50 won't warm ground temps that much. We'll have colder ground temps for this one than for a typical storm in this area. If the RAP verifies that stuff could fall on molten lava and stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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