burrel2 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think i've finally learned something now that this happened about 5 consecutive times.... when there is an 750 to 850mb warm nose projected on the models... It will ALWAYS push at least 20 to 30 miles farther north than any model shows. This happens every single time.... So for future reference... if we see 800mb warming close to freezing in an event, you should expect a 20 to 30 mile shift north of this line when the event actually unfolds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Does everybody in here remember the GFS as recently as maybe a week ago from as far back as 2 weeks ago showing a crippling ice storm from Georgia up to North Carolina, then snow above that? The storm track was about the same as it verified last night. The GFS was actually right for the most part weeks ago about the warm nose, the only difference is it didn't pick up on the first wave that moved through two days ago, which moistend up our atmostphere enough to keep temperatures from dropping further. Temperatures were in the 30s from CHS all the way into North Carolina last night. Had the first storm not happened, and dew points were still as low as they had been before the first storm, it could have been a massive ice storm. Here northwest of CAE I was 34.8 almost the duration of the storm. Somebody with more knowledge tell me if my observation is right or wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It's a teacher work day at the liquor stores down here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The very, VERY worst part of it all is that Glenn Burns and his GD in house model showing all rain up to the mountains was right! Aargh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I will rebuild! This is what 4-8" looks like! LOL - I still highly respect GSP - great weather office - very difficult storm to tease out (esp with no reliable cold air source) - I was riding the fence last night - I think I saw all forms of precipitation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think i've finally learned something now that this happened about 5 consecutive times.... when there is an 750 to 850mb warm nose projected on the models... It will ALWAYS push at least 20 to 30 miles farther north than any model shows. This happens every single time.... So for future reference... if we see 800mb warming close to freezing in an event, you should expect a 20 to 30 mile shift north of this line when the event actually unfolds... great points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 ere The very, VERY worst part of it all is that Glenn Burns and his GD in house model showing all rain up to the mountains was right! Aargh... Yep. Like it or not/luck or not, GBurns pretty much got it right and did much better than most. Keep in mind that I'm not a GBurns fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think the main issue was that the models treated this storm as if it was in the heart of winter. In reality the storm happened at the tail end of winter, in the Southern US. Common sense tells you not to expect 8 inches w/ borderline temps...but areas in the northern Triangle did get 8 inches with borderline times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 ere Yep. Like it or not/luck or not, GBurns pretty much got it right and did much better than most. Keep in mind that I'm not a GBurns fan. Me neither Larry. Happy to see David Chandley finally get his break after paying his dues all those years. He's a good guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 ere Yep. Like it or not/luck or not, GBurns pretty much got it right and did much better than most. Keep in mind that I'm not a GBurns fan. To be fair though, any ATL talking head who says "it's going to rain not snow in the metro" is going to be right 99.9 percent of the time. They would rather be wrong about that one snow every 4-5 years than wrong more often than that taking a risk to say there might be snow. People don't mind getting a surprise couple inches of snow overnight (which is when it usually happens here). They get pissed off when you tell them there's gonna be half a foot and it busts to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 hearing Chris Justus is getting hate mail - really like him - he reminds me of a young James Spann - needs more experience/grey hair - live by the models/die by the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 hearing Chris Justus is getting hate mail - really like him - he reminds me of a young James Spann - needs more experience/grey hair - live by the models/die by the models Well, except the RGEM. It was generally great once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I pretty much nailed the forecast. Here is just ONE of the things I posted yesterday in the discussion thread. "In my opinion, based on model data, the cold air supply just isn't THAT strong and with this low ticking north every model run since yesterday, Wake is going to be right smack dab in the transition zone. Northern wake, lots more snow. Southern Wake near JoCO, more rain mixed in. " I was getting a lot of heat for it. I knew how it would go. I've seen this scenario MANY times over my 31 years in Wake. Except that you were trumpeting that it would go NW of guidance, and it did the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 To be fair though, any ATL talking head who says "it's going to rain not snow in the metro" is going to be right 99.9 percent of the time. They would rather be wrong about that one snow every 4-5 years than wrong more often than that taking a risk to say there might be snow. People don't mind getting a surprise couple inches of snow overnight (which is when it usually happens here). They get pissed off when you tell them there's gonna be half a foot and it busts to rain. Yes, being conservative will win most of the time based on climo. Actually, one of my favorite 2 ATL TV mets was Ken Cook. He generally was conservative though he occasionally wasn't. When he wasn't, you knew something big had a decent chance to occur. My other favorite: Steve Browne on 11-Alive in the 1980's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Except that you were trumpeting that it would go NW of guidance, and it did the opposite. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 hearing Chris Justus is getting hate mail - really like him - he reminds me of a young James Spann - needs more experience/grey hair - live by the models/die by the models That is pretty sad that some people will stoop to this level. This area in the upstate is so hard to forecast because of the down-sloping conditions and the dreaded WAA bubble that always finds a way to back it's ugly rear right up against the mountains and screw alot of places in our area. I have lived in this area for close to 40 years and very few of the storms have actually verified the way they were modeled. I have lost count on how many times over the years I had to try to explain to the kids why we did not got anything close to what they were saying. Last febs storm the euro model had our area getting 14-16 inches of snow and other models 10+ but, we barely got 2 inches. Chris is an up and coming really good met and, I would hope most people would start acting more like adults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I am 50 years old and have lived in the upstate of SC all my life. I can count on one hand the number of winter storms that produced 8" or more in my area. That list would include the President's Day storm 1979 (my personal favorite with 14" IMBY, temps in mid teens and howling winds), back to back storms Jan 1982, Jan 1987 (3rd place), Jan 1988 (2nd place), and March 1993. However, there have been many more times than those events where the NWS called for 8" or more. Nevertheless, I still think the guys at GSP do a great job with winter weather and as someone else said this morning "it was fun tracking this event." We only got about 2" IMBY but I enjoyed the beautiful winter's morn......"until I noticed some jackass emptying his chemical toilet in my sewer"....oh wait, that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I don't know why people took the snow maps at face value. They were generally based on 10:1 ratios with little mixing. We obviously weren't going to get that. Even places like where I am had mixing it. If it had been in the mid-20s and all snow, we would have had well over a foot here. Instead we got 5-6". And that's in the good zone. If people had just cut the model totals in half, they would have been a lot closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It was still a decent Winter Storm. The fact that the track (in real time) did not support the totals many of us were expecting is irrelevant. It sucks getting missed as a "jackpot" zone - again - but what the hell else can you say? A ULL is still a ULL. Storm totals were impressive, just not in many of the locations at which it was "supposed" to be impressive. The GSP numbers looked great on paper, however it's much more common to be in the bust zone than not. That isn't GSP's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The very, VERY worst part of it all is that Glenn Burns and his GD in house model showing all rain up to the mountains was right! Aargh... From now on I'm listening to Glenn Burns and ignoring everyone else. Great job by Glenn Burns. He was very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Except that you were trumpeting that it would go NW of guidance, and it did the opposite. Hey Chapelhill, do you have the actual track that this storm took, or know of a site where i can find that information? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 A big part of the fun of a snowstorm is the anticipation leading up to the event. Kind of like, well, you know what I mean. In that regard, this was a fun storm. I want to thank those that put so much effort into making comments on this board. It's fun to read your posts. I hope all professional weather folks know that the general public appreciates them. There are many of you on this board. Thank you for always taking your job serious. You are appreciated. Chris Justice, don't worry about the few nuts out there. Those people need to get a life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I am sated with this storm...measured anywhere from 5-7" imby. Not a major hit or anything, but satisfying. Went for a drive and indeed many branches and trees have fallen over. Didn't hear any of them. Power was seemingly out in RTP, all the traffic lights were out on TW Alexander (except the one at Alexander/Page Rd). My power didn't even flicker here...so I feel pretty lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It was still a decent Winter Storm. The fact that the track (in real time) did not support the totals many of us were expecting is irrelevant. It sucks getting missed as a "jackpot" zone - again - but what the hell else can you say? A ULL is still a ULL. Storm totals were impressive, just not in many of the locations at which it was "supposed" to be impressive. The GSP numbers looked great on paper, however it's much more common to be in the bust zone than not. That isn't GSP's fault. It was uncanny how the major Deep South metro areas - BHM, ATL, GSP and CLT - all had almost identical experiences with a big tease in the metro and a ton of snow just to the north. That effectively PO'd about 15 million people and that's a lot of squawking to have to live with for the pros. Tough, tough storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Final Call: Raleigh: 5" Greensboro: 7" Burlington: 8" Chapel Hill: 7" Durham: 7" High Point: 8" Charlotte: 6" Packbacker: 6" Brick: 7" Me: 2" Anybody else? So, how'd I do?I was very close for Raleigh and for me. I never had more than an inch or so on the ground, but based on official local reports, between 1-2" fell here. I busted on Charlotte, I think, but I haven't a seen official totals yet. Edit: I had 8" for Franklin too. How'd he do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So, how'd I do? I was very close for Raleigh and for me. I never had more than an inch or so on the ground, but based on official local reports, between 1-2" fell here. I busted on Charlotte, I think, but I haven't a seen official totals yet. you were 1" inch off for me but some of the higher elevations in my county got 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think everyone busted in GSP and CLT god knows I did...but, wasn't as bad as thought. CLT was around 2" right? What about GSP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 you were 1" inch off for me but some of the higher elevations in my county got 10 What did you get, 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 What did you get, 7?yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I am 50 years old and have lived in the upstate of SC all my life. I can count on one hand the number of winter storms that produced 8" or more in my area. That list would include the President's Day storm 1979 (my personal favorite with 14" IMBY, temps in mid teens and howling winds), back to back storms Jan 1982, Jan 1987 (3rd place), Jan 1988 (2nd place), and March 1993. However, there have been many more times than those events where the NWS called for 8" or more. Nevertheless, I still think the guys at GSP do a great job with winter weather and as someone else said this morning "it was fun tracking this event." We only got about 2" IMBY but I enjoyed the beautiful winter's morn......"until I noticed some jackass emptying his chemical toilet in my sewer"....oh wait, that's another story. I'm 51 and have lived in the Taylors are my entire life. You are VERY close....7 times. Matter of fact, I can give you the specifics from GSP as official snowfalls since 1963: Jan 1966 - 9.1 Dec 1971 - 11.4 Feb 1979 - 12.3 Mar 1983 - 9.3 Jan 1987 - 10.8 Jan 1988 - 12.0 Mar 1993 - 9.8 The last "big" snow was Jan 2011 - 6.5. Jan 1996 we got 7.8 The 1988 storm shut the area down for a solid 3 days. I remember because my Mom was in the hospital. We got a 4 wheel drive to get us there....Wade Hampton Blvd looked like a war zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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