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2/25 event venting/whining/whatever thread


BullCityWx

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I'll go ahead and get this out of my system.

I can't believe this thing jogged north and gave the southern half of the state mostly rain. Always seems to happen. Thanks for getting our hopes up! Rawr Rawr Rawr

Ok, I'm done complaining for the day!

They always come north. If you want a good snow in southern NC, it needs to be modeled to hit northern Florida 24 hours in advance.

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11AM update from RAH

QUICK 1100 AM UPDATE. QUICK LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE NOTES NO

IMMEDIATE OR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED BUT NAM

CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH A BIT AND WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT

NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT.

 

 

we may see predicted amounts come way down in lieu of more rain..

Here's the deal. State just won @ UNC for the first time since you were a student and there's a giant snowstorm coming to NC. Today is a good day for you. Enjoy it.
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Man, I honestly think Raleigh mixes quite a bit. I think we'll be very lucky to pick up 5". We are so right on the line (or at least on where we think the line is, according to the models). But if the storm continues to trend stronger, I think many more folks will mix. These strong storms have a way of injecting warm air in the mid levels that is not well modeled. So all of these snow maps, while nice to look at, aren't picking that process up. On the other hand, I could be being too pessimistic. I've just seen this happen a lot. It's way too close for comfort here.

WRAL was basically saying 1-3 on the low end and like 3-6 or 6-8 on the high end (if we stay all snow and get the robust QPF the models are showing). Haven't seen any updates from them that reflect a change in that thinking. They also said they felt the R/S line would set up between FAY and RAL. That was before the 12z models though. I would have to think that gets adjusted north.

Sounds good, thanks....yeah, generally going with the warmest model look aloft works well

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The Mid Atlantic subforum just started a thread about this event. Time for it to be magnetized northwards. 6-10" for DC, somehow, someway.

 

It's going to be hard for the Triad to hold off the rain, because now that there is a thread made in the Mid Atlantic subforum, you know it's going north.

 

Buddy 1987, you're getting a foot brother.  

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Alright, I'll contribute to the whining.  For Upstate SC folks (mostly above 85):

 

1.  12z GFS looks to dry slot/change to mostly rain for us (can't tell which yet).

2.  Surface temps hampering accumulations?  Seen it too many times where it pours snow yet nothing sticks because the surface is too warm.

3.  Too much rain to begin with, even with the changeover?

 

Not cliff-diving, but have to throw them out there.

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Some folks will still be looking at models for this storm on Friday. Haha

 

Its a now cast event at this point

I'm sure there are people on here that never see it snow except in posted videos. And I'm not talking about Floridians.

 

"Wow, according to the models, it snowing like hell where I am."

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