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2/25 event venting/whining/whatever thread


BullCityWx

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Official, bust. 7000' warm layer is fricken awesome. Marginal temps, precio rates, plumes and all the other crap will never overcome that deep of a warm layer. Checkmate, out of chips, and dead broke.

 There's no excuse for the models to miss that. Seeing that ahead of time would have saved lots of trouble.

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So help me understand something... The column was cool enough to support snow initially. Precipitation got heavier, and we turned over to sleet. If there is no warm nose pushing in right now, we should go back to snow fairly quickly, right? If the warm nose, however, is pushing in, rates now should be able to overcome it, if they're going to. The warm nose is only going to get stronger, right?

No. Look at the radar. We are about to go back to snow.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-1-24

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So help me understand something... The column was cool enough to support snow initially. Precipitation got heavier, and we turned over to sleet. If there is no warm nose pushing in right now, we should go back to snow fairly quickly, right? If the warm nose, however, is pushing in, rates now should be able to overcome it, if they're going to. The warm nose is only going to get stronger, right?

What I don't grasp about this whole scenario... is that the precip rates, on the ground, were never greater than light/moderate.... even under the heaviest bands (presumably reflections from sleet).  ???  If I check precip amounts tomorrow - I'll bet its well under .25".

 

That they key?

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A couple things...

 

Dry slot is the most overused word ever and almost never applies to the situation in which it is brought up.

 

Also, it seems that it's always tough to go back over to snow once you've switched over.  That's not to say it won't happen, but it's hard.  It doesn't usually happen that way here.  I did see Burger go back over to snow after raining for a bit, though.

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What I don't grasp about this whole scenario... is that the precip rates, on the ground, were never greater than light/moderate.... even under the heaviest bands (presumably reflections from sleet).  ???  If I check precip amounts tomorrow - I'll bet its well under .25".

 

That they key?

 

IIRC, the NAM (and maybe other models) showed a general precip minimum in upstate SC and also showed warmer temperatures there.  Looks like they might have been correct, though we still have time yet to go.  I'm sure you'll get some.

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What I don't grasp about this whole scenario... is that the precip rates, on the ground, were never greater than light/moderate.... even under the heaviest bands (presumably reflections from sleet).  ???  If I check precip amounts tomorrow - I'll bet its well under .25".

 

That they key?

I don't know. I mean the sleet/rain mix is coming down pretty good. Seems like if dynamic cooling is going to take effect, it would help now before the big push from the warm nose later.

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