wawarriors4 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 They have a wet bias but I like the trends I'm seeing. Any hint on what the afternoon update from LWX will have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Everything is coming north. Surface low is deeper so more dynamic and more expansive precip, better vort etc. Don't tell the SE board that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP isn't that aggressive, through 6:00am, Baltimore and North is shut out, DC has about an inch. Also Consistent on a Raleigh NC jackpot. Has been trending south with Precip for the most part. Can't say Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Don't tell the SE board that. That doesn't mean it has to be bad for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Don't tell the SE board that. they already noticed that the Euro was 50-75 miles NW with the slp, trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP isn't that aggressive, through 6:00am, Baltimore and North is shut out, DC has about an inch. Also Consistent on a Raleigh NC jackpot. Has been trending south with Precip for the most part. Can't say Euro is right. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Almost certain the next SREFS will be wetter. ARW family ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Everything is coming north. Surface low is deeper so more dynamic and more expansive precip, better vort etc. 994 just off of OBX is impressive. When I was looking at the ens members a couple days ago, all the sub 1k's off of obx brought precip here. Weaker and further se didn't do it. It's like a best case scenario is playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not surprised by the poleward trend the last few model runs. We see this almost all the time with a southern stream vort max. Its poorly handled in the southwestern US and when it ejects, the models are too quick to weaken the feature. Another thing that is a positive sign, little to no convection in the Gulf of Mexico! This means the best moisture flux is going to go directly into where the best mechanical forcing for ascent is associated with frozen precipitation. I'd say these juiced up amounts the last few model cycles are the real deal, but it could also mean more WAA so perhaps cutting down amounts on the southern side of where the winter storm warnings are located. This is just a gorgeous satellite image. From Phil up in Albamy who is very respected. Not sure if you know him but when I lived in CT this guy was always on the money. Figured it would make the mid Atlantic peeps a little more pumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP isn't that aggressive, through 6:00am, Baltimore and North is shut out, DC has about an inch. Also Consistent on a Raleigh NC jackpot. Has been trending south with Precip for the most part. Can't say Euro is right. um, don't put the RAP near the end of its run to the Euro nothing is absolute, but it is often a mistake, not to mention the rest of the guidance trending some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 From Phil up in Albamy who is very respected. Not sure if you know him but when I lived in CT this guy was always on the money. Figured it would make the mid Atlantic peeps a little more pumped up. Know Phil well. Pretty interesting insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, stats padder on the way? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP isn't that aggressive, through 6:00am, Baltimore and North is shut out, DC has about an inch. Also Consistent on a Raleigh NC jackpot. Has been trending south with Precip for the most part. Can't say Euro is right. agree. Storm cancel based on the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For those that don't think short range wild swings are possible. Here's the Euro qpf for RDU in the last three runs. 12Z yesterday: .4" 0Z: .72" And just now with the 12Z: 1.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Everything is coming north. Surface low is deeper so more dynamic and more expansive precip, better vort etc. Yes. Yes. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 994 just off of OBX is impressive. When I was looking at the ens members a couple days ago, all the sub 1k's off of obx brought precip here. Weaker and further se didn't do it. It's like a best case scenario is playing out. Yes and the low is deepening at its closest approach. I like what I'm seeing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Northern edge was tougher than the southern edge... equal risks of busting high/low on the north side. Euro shift was nice, but I can't bring myself to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Northern edge was tougher than the southern edge... equal risks of busting high/low on the north side. Euro shift was nice, but I can't bring myself to bite. 20150226-27_MAsnow_final.png Your maps are usually great. But you go from 1-2" to not even a coating to 1" north of that?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ^^ looks good. 2-4" running along the south side of Rte 50 is still way better than anyone thought we'd be a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Second storm in a row I'm not in the dreaded grey area on Ellinwood's map. FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Northern edge was tougher than the southern edge... equal risks of busting high/low on the north side. Euro shift was nice, but I can't bring myself to bite. 20150226-27_MAsnow_final.png What's with the camel hump up into Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Your maps are usually great. But you go from 1-2" to not even a coating to 1" north of that?. Come on man, I've been making maps for years and you haven't realized that I *never* plot the Coating-1" area? I couldn't care less about less than an inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What's with the camel hump up into Pittsburgh You have family up there...bias?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 What's with the camel hump up into Pittsburgh Residual -SN Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Come on man, I've been making maps for years and you haven't realized that I *never* plot the Coating-1" area? I couldn't care less about less than an inch of snow Probably just mad you have him in the white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Come on man, I've been making maps for years and you haven't realized that I *never* plot the Coating-1" area? I couldn't care less about less than an inch of snow Lol my bad sorry. Good map then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I should be a met: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45651-mid-feb-through-march-threatssnow-storms/?p=3435848 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Probably just mad you have him in the white. Nah, his map is not going to change how much i get. I think i will get 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Northern edge was tougher than the southern edge... equal risks of busting high/low on the north side. Euro shift was nice, but I can't bring myself to bite. 20150226-27_MAsnow_final.png lol I'm always in or just out of your 1-2" bands, and when I wasn't last Monday, I didn't get the 4-8" you forecasted I'm NOT busting on you, I'm just complaining more of MY location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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