clueless Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 THis has all gone terribly wrong It was 1-3 on the line. I'm not so sure it was tragic. Reversal of fortune for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm glad someone bumped this comment. Even though the precip shield did drop south for our area, the Low also dropped 1 mb on the 0Z run. Also comparing to 12Z with the same 997mb pressure as 0Z, notice the orientation of the 0C isotherm shifts slightly to the northwest for 0Z. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 THis has all gone terribly wrong Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Being on the edge sucks. I was on the very southern edge of the front end THUMP in the last event. Totalled probably 100 flakes between noon and 4 pm, while 10 miles north 2-3 inches fell during that time. I ended up with 2 hours of decent snow before it flipped to sleet/zr. This event I could very well end up on the very northern edge. But I wont sit there staring and obsessing over the radar. I found other stuff to do last Saturday. There are other things. Theres beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 DCPS 2HD already announced. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Great trends tonight. Not! 5 flakes and a gust to 6 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 All these hours of tracking today and all taken away in a 5 minute run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 DCPS 2HD already announced. lolz. They're watching us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Radar countermeasure.. some air force bases in that area. You see it somewhat frequently in that region. Most crowded airspace in the country given Eglin, Hurlburt, and NAS Pensacola. Eglin is the largest AFB given the huge ranges on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 We've moved from zilch to on the edge the last cupple days and the edge has been wobbling. I wouldnt say anything has gone wrong. If the edge ends up being further east than first thought it should hardly shock anyone. T-3" for the cities/close burbs has been the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 There have been a couple of relative wins this season, but the ratio of posts, or even pages of posts, to inches, is horrendous. Onto the next - March Forth, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So no joke- how did we go from everything trending wetter 2 hours ago, bob Ryan/mr conservative getting excited and posting this tweet... To all of the sudden storm cancel like 30 minutes later. Clearly something went terribly wrong ... I'm curious to know why NAM and HRRR reversed and bailed so suddenly. I knew that.... um... yeah Besides that, Bob Ryan seems to like it Bob Ryan @BobRyanCCM 21m21 minutes ago dProg/dt in HRRR hinting more snow DC area -southern suburbs and BIG AM rush problems. Set alarm early. School?? pic.twitter.com/iBwPwWo2Gv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Great trends tonight. Not! 5 flakes and a gust to 6 for tomorrow. I was waiting for Jeb to post this analysis but thanks for filling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Interesting and a tad comical excerpt from Mt Holly this evening- IN A VERY CONFLICTING WINTER THERE WAS CONFLICTED VERIFICATION THROUGH00Z. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFIED BEST WITH THE PCPN MASSFIELDS (WRF-NMMB AND SREF MEAN WAS TOO FAR NORTHWEST). PROBLEMGOING FORWARD IS THAT THEY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OFTHE PCPN. LATEST 00Z WRF-NMMB HAD A SHIFT TO THE SE IN ITSHEAVIER PCPN AXIS AND THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVENABOVE. RAP HAS BEEN PRETTY BULLISH WITH ITS PCPN THIS EVENING,BUT IT TOO IS VERIFYING TOO WET IN THE CAROLINAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So no joke- how did we go from everything trending wetter 2 hours ago, bob Ryan/mr conservative getting excited and posting this tweet... To all of the sudden storm cancel like 30 minutes later. Clearly something went terribly wrong ... I'm curious to know why NAM and HRRR reversed and bailed so suddenly. They will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 6z nam is .26 liquid and 6z gfs is .28 for jyo both events....final call 2.7" MBY Holding firm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm on the phone goddammit! {b/b{}"[} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 We've moved from zilch to on the edge the last cupple days and the edge has been wobbling. I wouldnt say anything has gone wrong. If the edge ends up being further east than first thought it should hardly shock anyone. T-3" for the cities/close burbs has been the range. When I saw some of the Euro's runs from last weekend I said this thing has to make a move north at least to the extent that would have brought similar totals up here as the system last Monday. This storm just kept ticking a bit north but never really made that big jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 DC schools opening 2 hours late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Most crowded airspace in the country given Eglin, Hurlburt, and NAS Pensacola. Eglin is the largest AFB given the huge ranges on it. Went digging further check these out (time sensitive -- though I may save because they are cool): Key West (looks like a set earlier than this current one) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BYX-N0Q-1-200 AMX: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AMX-N0Q-1-200 In the Key West one you can see it set off then picked up by the wind early.. this current set appears to have originated out over the Gulf. Could all be NAS Key West maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So no joke- how did we go from everything trending wetter 2 hours ago, bob Ryan/mr conservative getting excited and posting this tweet... To all of the sudden storm cancel like 30 minutes later. Clearly something went terribly wrong ... I'm curious to know why NAM and HRRR reversed and bailed so suddenly. Even the mets can only follow the models as we do. Not one post that I saw mentioned the possibility of this collapsing at 0z. From anyone. The newer data is observing the fact that the NW edge will not verify as far NW. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 When I saw some of the Euro's runs from last weekend I said this thing has to make a move north at least to the extent that would have brought similar totals up here as the system last Monday. This storm just kept ticking a bit north but never really made that big jump. the more I look at the radar, the more it looks like a big storm to me the only thing I can say is that if it does disappoint, it's got to have to do with the northern stream system messing up the lift or cold, dry air filtering in from the N & NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Maybe NAM thinks there is a lot of dry air to over come...but who knows, maybe we will luck out like the last storm with the dry air (knock on wood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 DC schools opening 2 hours late. So normal hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 problem is the only wetter solutions left (euro/ukmet) are stale... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Holding firm And your bump post was pretty the same thing that happened the last two nights. How repetitive 3 nights in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 problem is the only wetter solutions left (euro/ukmet) are stale... But better models usually...at least the Euro always seems to do well on total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So no joke- how did we go from everything trending wetter 2 hours ago, bob Ryan/mr conservative getting excited and posting this tweet... To all of the sudden storm cancel like 30 minutes later. Clearly something went terribly wrong ... I'm curious to know why NAM and HRRR reversed and bailed so suddenly. Hard to pinpoint exactly why but my guess is the upper level support may not be as strong for our area as first thought and the more intense precip/dynamics closer to the coastal are inhibiting the nw edge from pushing. We'll see how it plays out over the next 12 hours. The cutoff has been a clear and present danger for the dca-bwi corridor. Hopefully Wes gets 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Isn't there a RAP v2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Maybe NAM thinks there is a lot of dry air to over come...but who knows, maybe we will luck out like the last storm with the dry air (knock on wood) Time to pull some soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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