SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't think anyone is realistically expecting more than an inch. If the NAM and GFS hold I'll be expecting 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hearing from the SE Forum that the low might be further south than expected. RAP and HRRR don't look that encouraging. Maybe an over performer in the works for ATL and Upstate SC. DC might get an inch I've heard of radar hallucinations, but never in the cross-forum third party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've heard of radar hallucinations, but never in the cross-forum third party... Of course SE forum would say it is further south than expected. They did the same last storm. Every forum has a bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hearing from the SE Forum that the low might be further south than expected. RAP and HRRR don't look that encouraging. Maybe an over performer in the works for ATL and Upstate SC. DC might get an inch location of Low is irrelevant right now for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Do you think there's even a chance for that? Nope, just snow wizardry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hearing from the SE Forum that the low might be further south than expected. RAP and HRRR don't look that encouraging. Maybe an over performer in the works for ATL and Upstate SC. DC might get an inch They're upset they are missing out. This is the RAP. It looks just fine. And all of that moisture is heading northeast at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Beauty in SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks the NAM steps back from the early morning runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NW flank of precip looks better at 15hrs vs. 6Z at 21 hrs, but still time to go one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Beauty in SE VA. USA_ASNOWI1_sfc_022.gif Do you have the total snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just by sim radar, 12z NAM is not as good as the 06z, but probably still better than yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Brutal Cutoff on NAM, precip runs into a brick wall around DC. Ocean City gets hit good. Still 1-2" DC proper, 6-10" OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Do you have the total snow map? Out to 26. Some of this is just the NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NW flank of precip looks better at 15hrs vs. 6Z at 21 hrs, but still time to go one way or the other Ends up drier for DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just by sim radar, 12z NAM is not as good as the 06z, but probably still better than yesterday's runs. Nam juiced things up over seva but backed things down over here. I suppose it's subsidence on the edge of the more intense precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 itsnothappening.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 All about expectations at this point. Better whittle it down from 1" to 3" to 0.5" to 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Back down to ~0.1" at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Still wouldn't take much of a shift to get us into a 1-3" scenario. The last system trended better and better until game time. The NAM basically has a 2-3/2-4" snowfall just on the other side of the Bay Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yeah. 12z runs and WWAs would make sense. Since we all know that a dusting will cause commuteageddon on 495--they better up the hype factor a smidge anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 80km NAM is .16" for DCA thru Thursday 1PM and .09" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z NAM is about 0.26" at EZF and 0.11" at DCA.....crazy crazy cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 that's just an 80 km output grid which is a terrible way to view totals on a storm like this with a tight gradient 80km NAM is .16" for DCA thru Thursday 1PM and .09" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 that's just an 80 km output grid which is a terrible way to view totals on a storm like this with a tight gradient hey, I'm just putting out for everyone what I have!!! regular NAM is .13" at DCA and .08" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 hey, I'm just putting out for everyone what I have!!! regular NAM is .13" at DCA and .08" at BWI IAD is .10"......there's your inch Leesburg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 hi res drops .25 in dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 hi res drops .25 in dc.how about bwi Bob?thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 hi res drops .25 in dc. That's solid advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This should answer all the hires questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This should answer all the hires questions hresqpf.JPG Hi res hates me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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