North Balti Zen Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 That was what he was referencing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 That was what he was referencing... That's what I thought, but still wanted to post that! Man, must be getting old if I could recognize that reference!! (ETA: Only Leslie Nielsen could pull off stuff like that totally deadpan with a straight face!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 21z SREFs have DCA ~0.25 QPF it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 29.97 baro around DC will have Zero suppression impact. If the storm is in fact 29.5 or less when it hits the coast, with nothing pressing down on it, it's coming north a lot. I think the later runs are going to make everyone very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It almost seems like the HRRRRRRRRRRRRR is increasing our QPF amount very slowly each run It has up my way, in the greens now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It has up my way, in the greens now! Dark greens next. We're in the stretch run so it's time to be greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm only expecting .5", so an inch is more than enough. 1.3" would be nice though, as that would put me at 20" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 We do have about a 20 degree temp dewpoint spread. That might mean quite a bit of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Dark greens next. We're in the stretch run so it's time to be greedy. Meh. I can only meltdown and get greedy once a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 RAPPPP. Lookin pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Wakefield reducing the Hampton Roads snow totals significantly while models are bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Wakefield reducing the Hampton Roads snow totals significantly while models are bullish. temps went up in that area so I'm guessing it's because more qpf will fall as rain than earlier thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Wakefield reducing the Hampton Roads snow totals significantly while models are bullish. NW trend is our friend. 850 mb temps look to be above 0c for a time there...maybe half the storm dependning on the model. Prob going to be quite a bit of sleet immediate NE NC and SE VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NW trend is our friend. 850 mb temps look to be above 0c for a time there...maybe half the storm dependning on the model. Prob going to be quite a bit of sleet immediate NE NC and SE VA coast. A warmer push to the NW does not necessitate a NW trend in the precip field. Sometimes storms underperform everywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 A warmer push to the NW does not necessitate a NW trend in the precip field. Sometimes storms underperform everywhere... True. But there has been movement in the precip shield further NW over the last few model runs. Thats prety evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 A warmer push to the NW does not necessitate a NW trend in the precip field. Sometimes storms underperform everywhere... Usually these go hand in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Usually these go hand in hand. Looks pretty super juiced with GOM moisture and heat, would be surprised if it under-performed in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Stafford County, VA just changed over to WSW: Issued by The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington, MDWed, Feb 25, 8:38 pm EST ... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS... PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW... HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING... DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE 2 AM TO 8 AM. * IMPACTS... ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND TREACHEROUS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Stafford County, VA just changed over to WSW: Issued by The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington, MD Wed, Feb 25, 8:38 pm EST ... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS... PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW... HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING... DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE 2 AM TO 8 AM. * IMPACTS... ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND TREACHEROUS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Looks pretty super juiced with GOM moisture and heat, would be surprised if it under-performed in that way. Hard to say...sometimes you see the precip shield contract and have an even tighter gradient on the NW side. We shall see come verification time tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Stafford County, VA just changed over to WSW: Issued by The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington, MD Wed, Feb 25, 8:38 pm EST ... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS... PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW... HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING... DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE 2 AM TO 8 AM. * IMPACTS... ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND TREACHEROUS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. Yup, WSW expanded another row of counties north. Charles County (MD) and Stafford County (VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 MDZ016-018-VAZ055-260945- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0500Z-150226T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0007.150226T0500Z-150226T1700Z/ CHARLES-CALVERT-STAFFORD- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WALDORF 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...PORTION OF NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE 2 AM TO 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 VAZ508-260945- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0200Z-150226T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0007.150226T0400Z-150226T1700Z/ CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WINTERGREEN 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE BLUE RIDGE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW..HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW 1 AM UNTIL 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 FWIW...took a look at the 18z NAM fire weather nested grid model. It's run for special events and it was pretty impressive especially just south of DC...had 0.75-1.0 lower St. Mary's, 0.5-0.75 north across spotsy, all southern MD and even fringing to southern facquier county. 0.25-0.50 into DC, eastern Loudoun and toward BWI and 0.1-0.25 to near the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 VAZ056-057-260945- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0300Z-150226T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0007.150226T0500Z-150226T1700Z/ SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FREDERICKSBURG 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW 1 AM TO 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 MDZ017-260945- /O.EXT.KLWX.WS.W.0007.150226T0500Z-150226T1700Z/ ST. MARYS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST MARYS CITY 838 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. * TIMING...DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED 1 AM TO 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 FWIW...took a look at the 18z NAM fire weather nested grid model. It's run for special events and it was pretty impressive especially just south of DC...had 0.75-1.0 lower at. Mary's, 0.5-0.75 north across spotty, all southern MD and even fringing to southern facquier county. 0.25-0.50 into DC, eastern Loudoun and toward BWI and 0.1-0.25 to near the M/D line. What is the best source for that model? Thanks for the update! eta: I actually have it bookmarked! http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 What is the best source for that model? Thanks for the update! I want to say it's for internal use only but we get it off a webpage. Google nam fire Wx nested grid model and click on 24hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NW VA under WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Is that run at 1.33 km resolution? Any idea of its climatology? Specifically, is it known to have a high-bias for precip in its inner domain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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