mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-VAZ038-039-051>055-502-260615-/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0500Z-150226T1700Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-CALVERT-GREENE-MADISON-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH512 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON DC AND ITS MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA SUBURBS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES...2 TO 4 INCHES FOR CHARLES AND CALVERT COUNTIES.* TIMING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE 3 AM TO 8 AM. I sorta feel honored that the NWS finds my area's special wx statement for 1-2" is as urgent as St. Mary's County's statement for 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So tomorrow I can use the leaf blower instead of the snow blower to remove the snow ETA - few days back that did not seem even likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll be pretty surprised if tonight's runs don't come in juicer for those of us in the DCA/BWI area. Last shot in T-3 hrs. Good luck....we're all counting on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll be pretty surprised if tonight's runs don't come in juicer for those of us in the DCA/BWI area. Last shot in T-3 hrs. Good luck....we're all counting on us. I'll take 5 drinks for every tenth of qpf we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Water Loop seems to be showing a turn to the NE. It's a terrific looking system, like a mini dec 09. Kind of frustrating to be fringed by it since we have the air mass in place for snow from warmups to autograph signings. Ah well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 19Z Rap looks good with maybe a little more precip afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll take 5 drinks for every tenth of qpf we get you can expect to remain sober Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 you can expect to remain sober lol Larry on FB saying 6 now for dc Baltimore using the rucc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Local mets in Hampton Roads backing totals down to 3-5". Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just keeping track for DC..hopefully GFS/RGEM moisten at 18z so consensus improves even more...right now looks like a 2" snowfall...maybe a tad more. 12zGFS - 0.15" 18z NAM - 0.22" 18z Hi res - 0.27" 15z SREF - 0.27" 12z Euro - 0.24" 12z GGEM - 0.12" 12z UKMET - 0.20" 12z RGEM - 0.09" 18zGFS - 0.14" 18z NAM - 0.22" 18z Hi res - 0.27" 15z SREF - 0.27" 12z Euro - 0.24" 12z GGEM - 0.12" 12z UKMET - 0.20" 18z RGEM - 0.08" 21z RAP (why not) - 0.23" - through 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro/NAM rule. Revised my call from 1-2" to 1-3". I think GFS is too dry on northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 lol Larry on FB saying 6 now for dc Baltimore using the rucc I jumped on that as soon as I saw it. lol eta: It was shared through another wx group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 lol Larry on FB saying 6 now for dc Baltimore using the rucc Thats really pushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm more interested in the Friday stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro/NAM rule. Revised my call from 1-2" to 1-3". I think GFS is too dry on northern edge. just looked at text and even the GFS gives DCA 0.14" which would be good enough for 1.5"+ for me and you...no model gives us less than 1"...several give us 2-3" so I like your call...If we toss the RGEM/4kNAM/SREF/RAP, we come up with an average of 0.18" making 2" a nice midpoint...1-3" is kind of a no-brainer at this point for me and you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 22z HRRR through 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm more interested in the Friday stuff why? The GFS gives JYO like 0.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 why? The GFS gives JYO like 0.03" Not the gfs I saw...let me check again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not the gfs I saw...let me check again the 18z GFS gives you 0.19" tonight and 0.03" on Friday...I'd probably lean toward being more interested in tonight which is an actual storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 22z HRRR through 8am very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 the 18z GFS gives you 0.19" tonight and 0.03" on Friday...I'd probably lean toward being more interested in tonight which is an actual storm Meteostar qpf looks wonky...im all in for tonight but Friday looked nice for a topper...disregard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KJYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 22z HRRR through 8am The HoCo MoCo death band will not be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I see where 40s is In the trashbin of internet history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 22z hrrr ending 8a.. heaviest north of EZF after 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The HoCo MoCo death band will not be denied That's the first thing I noticed as well. The super hi-res stuff picks up on that (and orographic enhancements) well when really close to the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 22z hrrr ending 8a.. heaviest north of EZF after 4. That's not awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Office of Managing Disasters? Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 the winter storm warning here has been backed down to 3-5 from 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Radar sure is encouraging. Precip farther north into Tennessee than any models had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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